What in journeyman backup QB Taylor Heinecke’s history suggests he can guide Washington to a Thursday Night victory over the New York Giants?
And why do bettors believe he can outperform Giants QB Daniel Jones and easily cover a 3-point spread? He went 26 for 44 and 306 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay in last year’s playoffs and he officially gets the keys to the car in Week 2, as Ryan Fitzpatrick was placed on injured reserve. He will miss at least the next six weeks.
But buyer beware in betting against the Giants as road underdogs – they are 18-5 ATS in their past 23 games in this situation. Both of these teams are 0-1 and are looking to avoid falling to the dreadful 0-2 record. Only 12% of teams in NFL history have made the playoffs when starting 0-2.
Also check out Deeg’s 3-pack of Thursday Night Anytime TD Scorer prop bets analysis.
Why Washington can cover the spread
Washington has struggled covering the spread when playing as the favorite. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing as the favorite and are playing a team they have struggled against recently. Washington is 0-5 in their last five games against the Giants.
Chase Young has to play better in this game for Washington to cover the three-point spread. He was PFF’s 42nd ranked edge defender in Week 1, and only had three tackles with zero sacks. The Giants’ offensive line struggled to keep Daniel Jones away from pressure in their opener.
Why the Giants can cover the spread
The Giants haven’t done well as the underdog if you’re looking to take them to win this game outright. They are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games when slated as the underdog. But against the spread, they have been dominant for bettors at 18-5 ATS!
The Giants’ defense has to be better. Football Outsiders had them as the 23rd ranked defense in Week 1, and they could not get the Broncos off the field. The Broncos were 3/3 on 4th down, even converting a 4th and 7. One area the Giants can take advantage of is Washington’s third-down defense. The Chargers were 14/19 on third down against Washington.
Giants Washington Betting Pick
Here is my hot take of the game. Taylor Heinicke is a better quarterback than Daniel Jones. Yes, I went there. Washington is the better football team and will win this game by at least a touchdown.
Washington New York Giants Props
Taylor Heinicke OVER 19.5 Rushing Yards
Heinicke had 17 rushing yards in spot duty last week. In both of his games last season, he eclipsed 19.5 rushing yards with ease. Everyone remembers his rushing touchdown against the Buccaneers in the playoffs. Bridgewater is much less mobile than Heinicke, and he even ran for 19 yards last week against the Giants.
Terry McLaurin OVER 5.5 Receptions
McLaurin only had four receptions on Sunday, but he also only had four targets. There is zero chance he only has four targets in this game. He will be Heinicke’s go-to target.
Darius Slayton OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Even with Kenny Golladay on the roster, it looks like Slayton is still Daniel Jones’ favorite target. He had seven targets for three catches and 67 yards in Week 1.
Giants are 4-19 SU in their last 23 games when playing as the underdog.
Washington 4-18 SU in their last 22 games at home.
Giants are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Washington.
Giants are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games on the road.
Giants are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Washington
Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC East
Giants are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games played in September.
Giants are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 2.
Giants have played UNDER 7 straight years in Week 2 – why? No idea.
Giants have played UNDER past 7 games as underdogs
Giants are 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Thursday
Washington 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in September.
Washington 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 2.
Washington OVER is 8-2 Washington’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.
Washington 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the favorite