Dec 10, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws the ball during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Jets Browns Picks, Flacco Prop, CLE cover

Money has begun moving on Cleveland as they host New York Jets in the Week 17 Thursday Nighter, with the line moving up to 7.5 points as of Wednesday at Draft Kings.

These new Browns have been excellent at home (10-2 ATS streak) and have won seven in a row as favorites, covering six times, which is not like the old Browns. Old Joe Flacco is teaching his young teammates about winning.

After erupting for 30 points last week, the Jets will likely have QB Trevor Siemian at the controls, but do the Jets have a hope of repeating that effort against a top-rated defense? Bettors don’t think so with the line moving up and the total moving down (from 36.5 to 35 by mid-week).

Jets Browns Picks: Odds CLE -7.5, Total 35 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

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Why the Jets can cover the spread

True they scored 30 points a week ago, but against the dreadful Washington defense and with the benefit of three turnovers. Regardless, momentum is momentum and confidence is contagious.

The line moving to 7.5 points is another encouragement for Jets backers as they can sneak a backdoor cover to win your side wager. The Jets also own a 7-2 ATS edge vs the Browns over nine meetings and Cleveland for whatever reason loses in Week 17 with a 2-11 SU losing skid over 13 seasons.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

This is a top-rated defense against a low-rated offense. It’s a short week with a Cleveland team owning all the momentum and having all the motivation.

They have been tough at home and when laying points and have believers in the betting community with Flacco at the controls. The Jets secondary is solid but Flacco will keep slinging it to Amari Cooper and emerging David Njoku who has seen his targets soar.

There have been upsets aplenty in recent weeks but this really feels far-fetched for Jets bettors unless this line climbs much higher. The Jets have covered just one spread in eight tries and have lost 10 of 12 Thursday Nighters SU so historically they do not perform well on short weeks.

Jets Browns Picks

Many bettors don’t think the Jets will score double digits here, meaning a lot of prop action on Jets UNDER 13.5 points. The line moving off 7 points is risky but this game could easily be 30-0 so we lay the points with the Browns at home, something we spent decades avoiding but these are new Browns.

Browns Jets Prop Bets

Breece Hall UNDER 48.5 rushing yards -120 at Draft Kings – Cleveland will stack the box and attack the run forcing Siemian to throw. The Jets could get behind early and need to abandon any hopes of a ground game.

Joe Flacco OVER 230.5 passing yards -115 at Draft Kings – Flacco has 40+ attempts in his four starts and even facing a tougher secondary, we see this trend continuing. Mix in some Jerome Ford dashes to keep the Jets off balance and the skies are open for Flacco to easily surpass this number.

Jets Browns Betting Trends

Jets are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games played on a Thursday

Browns are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 17.

Browns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Jets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games

Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Cleveland.

Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

Browns are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played on a Thursday including 7 straight TNF home games

Browns have won 7 straight as favorites, 6-1 ATS

Bet NYJ CLE

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