Aaron Rodgers starts off his first season with the New York Jets for a second time and Brock Purdy better be on his toes as his 49ers host the Week 1 Monday Nighter.
Rodgers of course missed all of 2023 and will be counted upon here to get the Jets offense into the middle of the pack, knowing that the top-rated defense gives them a chance to win every week.
That defense – the top pass rush and sack leaders while not even blitzing – should harass the 49ers QB who will need to scamper out of harm’s way, making his rushing yard prop OVER an intriguing bet.
Trends watchers know the 49ers usually win at home but they have failed to cover 7 straight there.
Jets 49ers Pick: Odds SF -3.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Jets can cover the spread
The league’s best pass rush and No. 1 ranked defense can stymy even a potent offense. Rodgers and his new weapons Mike Williams and Allen Lazard combine with talented Garrett Wilson present a major challenge.
You won’t find much trends support for backing the Jets here except for the fact the 49ers have failed lately ATS at home and the fact they are 3-8 ATS in non-conference play.
Why the 49ers can cover the spread
The league’s most potent offense can run up scores, even on solid defenses. They obliterated the Cowboys and Eagles last season and might be better to start 2024.
They have won 15 of 18 home games and own a long history of covering Monday Night games (30-10-1 ATS over many seasons).
49ers Jets Picks
The total isn’t very high here, despite the talented offenses. And the 49ers have played UNDER in Week 1 nine of the past 10 seasons and we see the same thing happening here. This games feels like 20-17 type of deal.
49ers Jets Betting Trends
49ers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home.
Jets are 2-16 SU, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games played in September.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
Jets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games
Jets are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games played on a Monday
49ers have failed to cover 7 straight home games
49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games
UNDER is 9-1 past 10 49ers Week 1 games
49ers are 30-10-1 ATS in their last 41 games played on a Monday
