Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard (18) throws to wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) during the first half of the College Football Playoff first round game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Dec. 21, 2024.

Notre Dame Ohio State Pick, Buckeyes Cover?

Bet against Notre Dame in the National Championship vs Ohio State? If so, you are betting their 11-0 ATS streak ends while enjoying 8.5 points on the line.

The Irish boast All-American safety Xavier Watts but can he help a secondary that has good stats but not against high-caliber offenses. And the Buckeyes ked by Will Howard and freshman WR Jeremiah Smith are certainly that.

Notre Dame is 18-3 ATS past 21 games but just 5-12 ATS as a post-season dog the past 30 years. They have also been tough as a dog and feast on Big Ten schools but Ohio State has won the past 6 meetings.

Notre Dame Ohio State Pick: Odds OSU -8.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

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Why Notre Dame can cover the spread

All they do is cover spreads, as that 18-3 ATS mark suggests. But Ohio State is different. Still getting 8.5 points in a title game is great value for a team on such a roll.

RB Jeremyiah Love will drive the offense and if he can excel, the game turns more strategic and limits the Buckeye offensive possessions. I that happens, the UNDER is in play here.

Either way, the Irish lead the country in takeaways with 34 and they will try to steal some possessions. They can win this game outright, they can certainly manage a cover.

Why Ohio State can cover the spread

The Irish have been underdogs of 7 or more just 6 times in 10 seasons and they never won. So if you think the Buckeyes can win, now the spread comes into focus.

RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins should be able to exploit an Irish run defense that ranked middle of he pack national allowing 5 yards per rush. If they can pound the rock, then Howard can do the rest when the Irish turn their focus to the run stop.

RB Love has been excellent for Notre Dame but the Buckeye run defense ranked third nationally. Beyond that, it’s a turnover battle and if Ohio State protects the ball, they should have the talent to prevail here.

Notre Dame Ohio State Picks

Betting the Irish feels risky because they seem to lose out o all the head-to-head breakdowns with the Buckeyes. Notre Dame thrives on takeaways but will Ohio State play into that? We don’t think so. Ohio State should pound the ground game and soften up for aerial assaults. We see this game as a double-digit win for OSU.

Ohio State Notre Dame Betting Trends

Irish are 18-3 ATS, 19-2 SU past 21 games and covered 11 in a row

Irish are 5-12 ATS as post-season underdog since 1996, but 7-1 ATS past8 playoff or bowl games overall

Irish are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs Big Ten schools

Irish are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.

Buckeyes won all six meetings with Irish since 1996

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