Nov 13, 2021; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Georgia Bulldogs helmets sit on the sideline in a game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports

Orange Bowl Betting: Michigan Georgia Pick

No. 2 ranked Michigan will be a TD underdog to No. 3 Georgia, making Orange Bowl betting an intriguing challenge for bettors.

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Are the Bulldogs truly the team that ranked No. 1 most of the year or are they the squad that got shredded by Alabama in the SEC title game? Michigan’s ground game generated 5.3 yards per carry against tough competition in 2021 and they will test that Georgia defense again.

Put simply, UM almost always loses as an underdog and Georgia almost always wins as a favorite. That settles the moneyline argument, now let’s see about that point spread.

Orange Bowl Betting: Michigan vs Georgia Pick

Michigan Wolverines vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5/45) – Matchup Report

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Why the Wolverines can cover the spread

The Wolverine defense boasts the best edge-rushing tandem in America in Heisman finalist Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. Their secondary also boasts top corners Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. That is a lot of future NFL talent lining up against a good-not-great QB in Stetson Bennett.

UM has been winning, but also covering at 11-2 ATS in their past 13. So, they can lose here and still earn you a national semi-final profit. Bama thrashed Georgia, but Michigan does not have the same firepower. This could be a one-possession game, which favors the Big Ten champions.

Michigan was 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS this season. That includes a 42-3 win over Iowa as a 12-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Wolverines head into bowl season on a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS.

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

Georgia hasn’t lost two straight since the end of the 2018 season and they may be too good to lose twice here. They went 12-1 on the year and 16-1 SU dating back to last season. On the road, the Bulldogs have won seven straight with a 6-1 ATS record.

The Bulldogs are 26-2 SU in their last 28 games when laying points and they are 7-2 SU in none recent games vs Big Ten schools. UM meanwhile is 3-24 SU in their past 27 games as underdogs.

In bowl action, the Bulldogs have been profitable (6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight and 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games as bowl chalk).

The Wolverines have had a rough ride in bowl games with four straight losses both SU and ATS, and a 3-7 SU record and 3-6-1 ATS record in their last 10. As a bowl game underdog they’re 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. In their last appearance in the Orange Bowl in 2016 the Wolverines lost to Florida State 33-32 as a 6.5-point favorite.

Orange Bowl Betting Trends

Michigan are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games.

OVER is 12-3 Michigan’s last 15 game vs Southeastern conference.

UM just 2-6 SU past 8 vs SEC schools

Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.

Wolverines are 3-24 SU in their last 27 games as the underdog.

Bulldogs are 26-2 SU in their last 28 games as the favorite

Bulldogs are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games vs Big Ten conference.

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