Penn State vs Notre Dame Pick, CFP Semi OVER?

Notre Dame brings an 11-1 ATS streak and the best pass defense in the nation to Hard Rock Stadium Thursday where they challenge the Penn State Nittany Lions.

And while many see this as an offensive slog and likely UNDER play, let’s scratch a little deeper to see what should happen here with Penn State small underdogs.

The Irish knocked off Georgia 23-10 while PSU beat Boise and both games played UNDER. The Lions have lost 11 0f 11 SU as an underdog while the Irish have won 12 straight SU as chalk and ride a 22-5 ATS streak when laying points.

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Notre Dame Penn State Pick: Odds PS +1.5, Total 45 | Matchup Report

Why Notre Dame can cover the spread

They stop the pass and Penn State wants to pass. And that 22-5 ATS mark as chalk cannot be ignored just as Notre Dame nears college football’s summit.

Penn State usually finds a way to lose as an underdog (10 straight) and doesn’t even bite hard enough to cover (1-7 ATS past 8 times).

The defense should be strong enough to keep the Lions at bay here and advance the Irish to the championship game. And if you think facing Big Ten teams scares the Irish, think again. They are 8-1-2 ATS in 11 recent games vs the conference.

Why Penn State can cover the spread

We’ll see if the Irish pass defense can hold up here but the Lions are not great on the ground so they will keep trying through the air. That inevitably will yield some big plays and scoring.

Penn State has scored into the 30s and 40s four straight games so the offense has momentum and confidence.

Notre Dame Penn State Pick

Penn State gave up 45 to Oregon a few weeks ago while Notre Dame dropped 49 on USC. Keeping this important game UNDER 45.5 will be a challenge with the stakes high and offenses talented.

We play this game cautiously OVER and would love to see the total creep down another half point before kickoff as the square action on the UNDER comes in late.

Notre Dame Penn State Betting Trends

Irish are 6-1 ATS past 7 post-season games

Irish have covered 10 straight games

Penn State lost 10 straight as underdogs

Lions are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games played in January.

Irish won 12 straight as favorites and 22-5 ATS past 27 times

Irish are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in January.