Dec 20, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles Cardinals Pick, Philly to Cover

Whichever way you bet the Eagles-Cardinals Week 5 matchup, you will betting on some one-sided streaks to continue or some long-standing trends to bust.

Arizona has lost seven in a row at home and catch 5 points as of midweek at Draft Kings Sportsbook. The Eagles, at 4-0, have lost five in a row here in the desert, but won eight in a row overall as favorites. Meanwhile, while the Cardinals could easily be 0-4 if not for some blunders by the Raiders and Panthers (who of the NFL’s worst teams).

So what’s it gonna be? The crappy team that can’t win or cover at home or the strong team that can’t seem to beat them?

Eagles Cardinals Pick: Odds ARZ +5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly enjoyed some preseason hype as NFC contenders and they have lived up to it with a stifling defense and terrific, varied offense. They rallied in Week 4 at home to beat the Jaguars, but have the talent to crush Arizona.

The passing game has been terrific (except for Week 4 in the rain) and the running game remains one of the league’s best. Testing the Arizona run defense early and often will soften things for the bigger plays and big lead by halftime.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

Its a weird historical angle, but the Eagles lose here a lot – five straight and 9 of 11. Overall, the Cards boast a 6-1-1 ATS mark the past eight meetings and they absolutely slay the NFC East in general, rolling to a 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games.

They have also been stout as underdogs lately at 8-3 ATS. The Eagles haven’t faced a true running QB so far in 2022, so Kyler Murray will test them. And Arizona’s run defense ranks fifth at 87 YPG, so Philly’s ground game could face a test.

Eagles Cardinals Pick

We can envision Philly running to a big lead here and taking the foot off the gas. That can always open the door to the back door cover. The Eagles are 10-1 SU in their past 11 when laying points, so they usually win when they are supposed to – the 5 points is a bit of an odd number but we feel safe laying it.

Eagles Cardinals Betting Trends

UNDER is 10-1 Arizona’s last 11 games vs NFC East division.

Cardinals lost 7 in a row SU & ATS, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home

Eagles are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games as the favourite.

Eagles are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at Arizona.

Cardinals 6-1-1 ATS past 8 vs Eagles

Eagles 0-5 SU and ATS last 5 at Arizona

Eagles won 8 in a row SU as favorites

Cardinals are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs NFC East teams.

Cardinals are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 5.

Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.


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