Oct 30, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) runs with the football against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles Texans Pick, TNF Play OVER?

Houston ranks Bottom 3 in offense and defense, are winless at home and never cover on short weeks, so its no surprise the Thursday Night line against the Eagles keeps climbing.

This spread opened at -9 and has been bet to -14 by Wednesday as unbeaten Philly looks to go 8-0. But buyer beware here: Philly has been a double-digit road favorite just three times since 1980 and failed to cover all three. Worse yet, they lost outright the last two times.

And the Back-Door Cover is in play here as Philly potentially races to a lead and kicks into cruise control.

Eagles Texans Pick: Odds HOU +14, Total 45 | Matchup Stats

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philly is healthy, cruised in Week 8 and should be fine against the league’s worst team. We won’t be surprised if this game follows the Pittsburgh script where the Eagles get out to a lead and their weak opponent scores in garbage time to push OVER the total.

Philly has won 11 straight as chalk and 10 of 11 vs AFC South teams and cover regularly on Thursdays.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

Davis Mills is one of the borderline QBs who can go off and shock people. He has also been a guy who pushes to the end, so if it means scoring a TD when the score is 45-3, he is gonna do it. This is BackDoor Cover land against an Eagles team that can win easily but doesn’t need to push to the final whistle to win.

They catch the Eagles on a short week on the road – both difficult scenarios.

Eagles Texans Pick

The spread is risky here, laying two TDs on a road team. The total is in danger here with the powerful Eagles and the scrappy Texans likely to score after the game is out of reach.

Philadelphia Houston Props

Miles Sanders -105 at FanDuel – He has 18 touches in the red zone through seven games and should get some touches here as well. Houston can’t stop the run or the pass.

Dameon Pierce +150 at FanDuel – Averaging more than 100 scrimmage YPG in past month and is terrific in yards after contact. If we expect Houston to get garbage time scoring, Price is worth the price.

Eagles Texans Betting Trends

Eagles have been double-digit road chalk just three times since 1980, lost the last two outright and 0-3 ATS overall.

Eagles won 11 straight SU as favorites

Eagles 10-1 SU past 11 vs AFC South

Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.

Texans are 1-9-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.

Texans are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs NFC East division.

Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Thursday.

Texans covered past 2 times as double-digit home dogs

Eagles Texans Pick – is the total the safest play and not the point spread

Bet TNF!!

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