Nov 14, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson (65) against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl Pick, Philly ML

Kansas City wasn’t the best team on paper last year but still beat the 49ers in Super Bowl 58. It’s the same story in Super Bowl 59 where the Philadelphia Eagles have superior talent and stats – on paper.

The spread was settling around -1.5 for the defending champs who are attempting a three-peat. And the Eagles have the biggest injury question marks with WR Devonta Smith and two top OL stars not practicing as of Monday.

KC has won 18 straight as favorites while the Eagles have won 15 of 16 games. The Eagles are 10-2 ATS as a playoff dog but have lost 18 of their past 25 games as underdogs overall.

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Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl Pick: Odds KC -1.5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

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Why the Eagles can cover the spread

If defenses win championships, then the Eagles should win. Their defense ranks top or near the top in all key defensive categories.

If the defense does its job and the Eagles run-heavy offense can limit Mahomes offensive possessions, then the Eagles are in good shape. Both Cam Jurgens and Landon Dickerson have injuries, but both played through them vs the Commanders. They are dominant in both the run and pass game.

RB Saquon Barkley is setting records and should be able to exploit a middling KC run defense. And the Eagles secondary and linebacker play has been awesome all year. They have all the tools to win here.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

However, any team with the best QB and the best coach has a chance. And when it’s a KC team with all the experience and 17 straight victories in close games, backing them is never a bad play.

Betting against KC has been money-losing folly and in a Super Bowl, Mahomes has all the experience. And they should give the Eagles a taste of their own medicine with hard-running RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.

Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl Pick

This game in Super Bowl 57 went way OVER and this game might too. But the Eagles defense and ground-heavy offense means this game can easily go UNDER (KC usually plays UNDER as playoff chalk). But our play is the Eagles here. KC has escaped time and again this season but they face a team that surpasses them in talent and depth. We play the Eagles ML and happily would take the 1.5 points on the spread.

Super Bowl Trends – Eagles vs Chiefs

Chiefs have won 18 straight as favorites

Eagles are 15-1 SU past 16 games (only loss when Jalen Hurts got concussion and left game)

Eagles are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games

Eagles are 10-2 ATS as playoff dog since 2001, winning SU 6 times

Chiefs UNDER is 5-1 past 6 as playoff chalk (OVER was last week vs Bills)

OVER is 5-2 past 7 meetings

Chiefs are 19-4 SU past 23 away from Arrowhead

Chiefs are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games

Eagles are 16-5 SU in their last 21 non-conference games

Eagles have lost 18 of past 25 games as underdogs