Dec 31, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith (6) limps off the field after being injured during the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Tampa Bay Picks, Prop Bets, Wild Card Trends

True the Philadelphia Eagles have been in a freefall for months, but be careful in assuming Tampa Bay is on some type of roll just because they won the NFC South.

The Bucs barely beat Carolina and freefalling Jacksonville while losing to the Saints in their final three games, but 9-8 was good enough to win the division. So, while many feel they should be favored at home, the Eagles might be a bargain at -3 on the spread.

Neither team is trustworthy but the UNDER has been a dominant trend following both teams so it’s a consideration here. Tampa Bay backers are putting their trust in Baker Mayfield, which might be a dicey proposition in January.

Philadelphia Tampa Bay Picks: Odds TB +3, Total 44 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

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Why Philadelphia can cover the spread

We keep waiting for the slide to stop and for this talented roster to play a complete game. The Eagles are superior talent-wise at just about every position and they should have AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Cam Jurgens back to get the offense rolling.

Tampa ranks second-last in home rushing, meaning Philly should be able to tee off with a pass rush and harass Baker. And if you buy MNF trends, the Bucs are 1-6 ATS their past 7 Monday Nighters.

The road team has won five of seven matchups since 2012.

Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread

True Tampa has not beaten many good teams but at least they are winning. The Eagles lost to the Cardinals and Giants down the stretch.

Philly hasn’t shown a complete effort all season and its hard to imagine it happening suddenly and they bring an 0-6 ATS streak into this game. Their woeful secondary will be further short-staffed as rookie corner Sydney Brown wrecked his ACL last week. If the O Line can keep Baker upright, he should be able to move the ball downfield.

Tampa meanwhile is 7-3 ATS in 10 games and 6-1 ATS their past seven games as dogs.

Philadelphia Tampa Bay Picks

Perhaps no game this season features two untrustworthy teams like this Wild Card MNF clash. It probably won’t be an offensive classic and with UNDER trends of 11-1, 18-4, 10-2, 7-1, 6-1, 8-3 and 7-2, history leans us UNDER the total here.

Eagles Buccaneers Prop Bets

Chris Godwin OVER 55.5 receiving yards at Draft Kings – the Eagles do not defend the pass well and their play in the slot in horrible. Enter Godwin to pick up plenty of work over the middle here while Baker works to stay comfortable in the pocket.

Mike Evans +100 Anytime TD at Draft Kings – its hard to imagine which Philly corner might hang with the tall burly Evans who can stretch the field or win jump balls. We see him a favorite red-zone target here.

Philly Tampa Bay Betting Trends

UNDER is 11-1 Philadelphia’s last 12 games played in January, 18-4 past 22

UNDER is 10-2 Philadelphia’s last 12 games vs NFC South.

UNDER is 7-1 Philadelphia’s last 8 games on the road.

UNDER is 6-1 Tampa Bay’s last 7 games at home.

UNDER is 8-3 Philadelphia’s last 11 games played on a Monday

UNDER is 7-2 Tampa’s last 9 home games as underdogs

Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games.

Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Monday.

Bus are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog.


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