Oct 14, 2021; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) calls a play against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Eagles Buccaneers Prediction, Philly as Dogs

Much has changed since Tampa Bay’s leisurely Week 7 thrashing of the Philadelphia Eagles that suggest things might be very different here on Wild Card weekend.

First, Philadelphia became the league’s top rushing team, averaging nearly 200 yards per game over the past few weeks. Second, Tampa Bay’s offense has been decimated by wide receiver injuries and freakouts.

So with the Buccaneers favored by 8.5 points on the heels of that 28-22 win back in Week 7, are the Eagles primed to spring the upset or at least cover this spread? Philly ran the ball just nine times that game and did not have OL Lane Johnson, who makes a huge difference.

Winners of seven of their last 10 games, we like the Eagles to cover the 8.5 point spread at FanDuel

Eagles Buccaneers Prediction, Odds: TB -8.5, Total 49 | Matchup Report

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Why the Eagles will cover the spread

Since Week 8, the Eagles are 6th in EPA per play on offense. Nick Sirianni has dialed up an offensive scheme that works perfectly to Jalen Hurts’ strengths, as he leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. 

Their defense has also made drastic improvements, as they are 10th in EPA per play on defense since Week 8. The Eagles have given up the fewest plays of 20+ yards and they force you to throw everything underneath. 

The Bucs are not the same team as last year. They will be without two critical weapons from their Super Bowl run in Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, and their defense is banged up. Jason Pierre Paul and Shaq Barrett are expected to play, but Lavonte David and Jamel Dean will be game-time decisions. 

Why the Buccaneers will cover the spread

The analytic stats match the Bucs record: They have been a top-five team in the league. They are third in team DVOA and finished first in EPA per play on offense. Tom Brady is arguably playing the best football of his career, as he led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. 

All the trends are pointing in the Bucs direction. They have won seven straight games in January, and are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday home games. 

Eagles Buccaneers Prediction

This spread is a little high. The Eagles’ have scored 21 or more points in all but two games. They will keep this game close. 

Eagles +8.5

Bucs Eagles Prop Picks

DeVonta Smith +270 (FanDuel)

Smith plays his best football in big games. The Buccaneers’ weakness is their secondary, so the Eagles will be leaning on Smith.

Jordan Howard +300 (DraftKings)

Howard has been their go-to running back in the red zone in short-yardage situations. He is fully healthy and should see a nice workload.

Rob Gronkowski 2+ +500

The Eagles have allowed the most touchdowns to opposing TEs this season.

Philadelphia Tampa Bay Betting Trends

Eagles are 3-14 SU in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog

Eagles 5-1 ATS past 6 playoff games

UNDER is 11-3 Philadelphia’s last 14 games played in January

Bucs are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Bucs won 7 straight in January

Bucs are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games as the favorite

Bucs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Sunday home games

Bet PHI TB

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