Dec 11, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) is sacked by  Baltimore Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith (18) during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Baltimore Pick, Chalk and Over?

The Steelers seem to have all the betting trends lined up in their favor but betting money keeps coming in on the Ravens in the late Week 16 Saturday game.

Baltimore comes off a laugher win vs the Giants while the Steelers were humbled at Philly. It feels like a bounce spot for the Steelers but they have injury woes with Safety DeShon Elliott and WR George Pickens out and TJ Watt hobbling.

Meanwhile the line climbed to 6.5 points at FanDuel and the Ravens are motivated at home to tie the Steelers atop the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Baltimore Pick: Odds BAL -6.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report

FanDuel sportsbook logo

Rated 5/5

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Plus 3 Months of NBA League Pass

A true leader in sports betting in the US, you will see their ads and celebrity endorsers on TV, on billboards, at your favorite baseball or football stadium. When new bettors think sports betting, they think FanDuel Sportsbook.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pittsburgh is one of the league’s toughest outs as an underdog and they have won outright in 14 of the past 20 games when catching points. They are also 13-5 ATS in their past 18 games overall and 6-1 ATS vs the Ravens.

They are 10-2 ATS within the division while the Ravens are just 2-6 ATS is divisional games. And they have covered 6 of 7 times in Baltimore.

The question is whether Russell Wilson can get the offense rolling minus Pickens. If yes, they staying within 6 points is perfectly plausible.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

While erratic, the Ravens will occasionally run the score up on poor or injured teams. They have a knack of covering in cold weather as their 17-6 ATS run proves.

Baltimore’s offense is electric and varied and Pittsburgh could be on tough here especially if Watt isn’t 100 per cent, which seems likely after hurting his ankle in Philly.

Laying 6.5 points with a divisional home team is risky but this game could just as easily get out of hand with an ugly 30-13 type of score too.

Pittsburgh Baltimore Picks

The past 8 meetings have all played UNDER the total and the Ravens trend heavily UNDER on Saturdays (7-1 past 8 times). Still, if we buy the theory that Baltimore runs to an early lead, it opens up shell defenses for the Steelers to pick apart – leading to a higher-scoring game that the metrics would suggest.

We like the OVER here, call it 31-21.

Pittsburgh Baltimore Betting Trends

OVER is 11-3 Baltimore’s last 14 games.

Steelers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games

Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against Baltimore.

Steelers are 6-1 ATS past 7 visits to Baltimore

Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 divisional games

Steelers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 on a Saturday.

Steelers are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games as the underdog.

Past 8 meetings all played UNDER

OVER is 9-2 Pittsburgh’s last 11 Saturday road games

Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 divisional games

Ravens are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games played in December.

UNDER is 7-1 Baltimore’s last 8 games played on a Saturday.

Upcoming Games