Jan 9, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills offensive tackle Tommy Doyle (72) following the game against the New York Jets at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Steelers Buffalo Bills Pick – Lay the Wood

Welcome to your career as a starting QB, Kenny Pickett, good luck with the biggest point spread the Steelers have ever faced in the regular season.

The rookie QB is likely to get the controls as Pittsburgh visits Buffalo as 14-point underdogs. If that line holds, it surpasses the +13 from Sept. 6, 1992 at Houston (the Oilers, not the Texans).

Double-digit dog status has been a favorable position for Steeler bettors overt he years, but this Buffalo team – despite two weeks of tight games – has the team and the motivation to pulverize Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh Steelers Buffalo Bills Pick: Odds BUF -14, Total 47 | Matchup Report

Why the Steelers can cover

Season after season, Pittsburgh as a big dog has been a good betting spot. And 14 points is a lot, especially with a rookie QB who will be trying til the last minute, opening the ‘garbage-time’ door for a Back-Door cover.

The Steelers have dominated the Bills over the years (11-3 ATS) and usually win in Week 5 for some reason (11-2 SU). They can’t win here, but they can cover.

Why the Bills can cover

Thirty years ago, Pitt was a 13-point dog against Hall of Famer Warren Moon, who led the Oilers to a quick 14-0 lead. However, non-Hall of Famer Neil O’Donnell engineered a comeback and Pittsburgh won 29-24 as 13-point dogs that day. Sunday’s spread would be the only time the Steelers faced a bigger number (excluding the playoffs, they got 13.5 points against Dallas in Super Bowl XXX, losing 27-17 and covering the spread).

On the heels of two sub-par weeks, Buffalo’s defense will be ready to tee off on Pickett and the offense should have a field day with Pittsburgh’s mediocre defense. Its bottom third ranking in pass defense could be particularly troubling.

Buffalo usually wins at home (15-3 SU run) and usually handle big numbers (6-1-2 ATS when laying 10 or more points). Pittsburgh also struggles against the AFC East.

Pittsburgh Steelers Buffalo Bills Pick

It’s tough to lay the wood on two TDs, but this game has all the markings of a blowout. Rookie QB, Buffalo at home, an offense itching to let loose. We wouldn’t be surprised to see a 56-14 game here, we let it fly with the Bills.

Steelers Bills Betting Trends

UNDER is 15-3 Pittsburgh’s last 18 games vs AFC East

Bills are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games

Steelers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 5.

Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Buffalo.

Steelers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 vs AFC East

Steelers are 11-2 SU and 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 games played in Week 5.

Steelers have been regular-season double-digit dogs just 12 times since 1980 and won outright five times.

Bills are 6-1-2 ATS past 9 as double-digit chalk

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.


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