Oct 31, 2021; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) runs with the ball as Cleveland Browns defensive tackle Jordan Elliott (96) and free safety John Johnson (43) defend during the first half at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Pittsburgh Cleveland Picks, TNF Props

The Steelers enter Thursday Night Football as 5-point road dogs despite handing Cleveland losses in 14 of their previous 17 matchups. Will a banged-up Cleveland team knock off the Steelers who have never lost a game to Jacoby Brissett before?

The Steelers haven’t had a losing season in 18 years, while the Browns have only had one winning season in the past 14 years.

Betting this game hinges on the resilience of Cleveland to overcome a disastrous loss to the Jets on a short week.

Steelers Browns Prediction: Betting Odds Browns -5, Total 38 | Matchup Report

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Why Pittsburgh can Cover

Pittsburgh is always one of the most difficult teams to bet against, because you can never rule them out of any game. The Steelers have won 5 of the past 7 matchups against Cleveland, and have outscored them 198-155 in that stretch.

Najee Harris is an efficient runner who has scored two touchdowns against Cleveland last year. I also like QB Mitchell Trubisky in this game, who is from the Cleveland area and could have an explosive game in his old stomping grounds. Don’t rule out the underdogs.

Why Cleveland can Cover

The Browns are 3-1 in their last 3 games in Week 3, and are 6-2 in their past 8 Thursday Night games. Cleveland has only lost one time at home to the Steelers since 2018, and despite having some big-time players ruled out for this game, are home favorites.

Myles Garrett will look to create pressure on the Steelers, like he’s done many times in the past accumulating six sacks in games against Pittsburgh. Nick Chubb is coming off a 3 TD week and the Cleveland offensive line has held their own this year. The Browns can certainly cover the spread at home and have been a reliable bet on short weeks, with an 8-3 ATS mark on Thursdays.

Steelers Browns Betting Prediction

This AFC North battle is going to be a good one, but I’m rolling with the Steelers as road dogs. If there’s one thing Mike Tomlin knows how to do, it’s beating the Browns. Tomlin’s success combined with the electric receiving corps in Pittsburgh and the Browns could be in for a long night.

Anytime TD Picks

Chase Claypool (+330 on FanDuel): Chase Claypool has oddly enough still seen plenty of work behind Diontae Johnson in the offense despite being overshadowed in the preseason by rookie George Pickens. I like Claypool to score on Thursday, just like he’s done four times against the Browns already.

Pat Freiermuth (+340 on FanDuel): Pat Freiermuth found the endzone on Sunday against the Jets, and he’s making the list yet again to score for the Steelers. His physical frame and steady success at a position of value in Pittsburgh screams anytime TD to me.

Kareem Hunt (+190 on FanDuel): The world just saw Nick Chubb score 3 TDs vs the Jets on Sunday, just a week after Kareem Hunt scored 2 TDs against Carolina. I think it’s Hunt’s week to shine and I like him finding the endzone against a defense that may be without their best linebacker in Devin Bush.

David Njoku (+400 on FanDuel): David Njoku has yet to live up to the preseason hype surrounding his opportunity in Cleveland this year, but I think he’s just waiting to show it on primetime. Njoku has been getting more involved each week and as a TE who hasn’t ever really done much, his odds should work in your favor this week.

Pittsburgh Cleveland Betting Trends

Browns are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 divisional games

Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Cleveland.

Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games

Browns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home

Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday (9 UNDERs)

Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing as the favorite

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