Oct 20, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) warms up before the game against the New York Jets at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pittsburgh Cleveland Pick, TNF OVER

Pittsburgh has a long history of beating up on Cleveland but they also have a recent history of losing road games on short weeks.

So with the Steelers favored by 3.5 points in the Week 12 Thursday Nighter, does their 2-11 SU streak matter against the overmatched Browns? Overall, Pittsburgh has a been a good road bet (13-5 ATS) past 18 and 8-1 ATS within the division.

Cleveland meanwhile has been a mess and has won just 12 of the past 64 meetings with the Steelers. However they have inexplicably won six straight Thursdays and 10-3 ATS past 13 seasons.

Pittsburgh Cleveland Pick: Odds +3.5, Total 36 | Matchup Report

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Why the Steelers can cover the spread

Pitt is surprisingly atop the AFC North but has the Ravens in the rear-view mirror, so losing games like this is not really advisable. Their defense ranks near the top in many key metrics including points per game allowed where that are No. 2.

The Browns put Jameis Winston at the controls and he threw for nearly 400 yards but Cleveland still got killed a week ago. He won’t approach that number here.

Russ Wilson is 4-0 as a starter and the Steelers are aware this is a letdown spot and coach Tomlin won’t let them do it.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

That half point and letdown hole are reasons to fear the Browns here. Even if they can’t spring the upset, getting 3.5 points at home is a nice bonus in a divisional rivalry game.

For some reason, the Browns have been tough on short weeks, winning and covering at a healthy clip, while the Steelers have routinely shit the bed on TNF.

Regardless of what you think of the 2-8 Browns, this is a divisional game with the home side catching 3.5 points and that can be good value in the right spot.

Pittsburgh Cleveland Pick

With a total of 36, this is drag for fans of scoring. And while the Browns offense has improved of late, the Steelers defense is dynamic with takeaways which probably means a few short fields for Pittsburgh offense which is averaging nearly 28 points per game under Wilson. Call it 28-10 and that’s an OVER.

Steelers Browns Betting Trends

Steelers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 Thursday road games

Steelers are 51-12-1 SU in their last 64 games against Cleveland

Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games

Steelers are 13-5 ATS and SU in their last 18 games on the road.

Steelers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 divisional games

UNDER is 8-3 past 11 meetings here

Browns are 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS past 12 games

Browns have won 6 straight Thursdays and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 TNF

UNDER is 5-1-1 past 7 Browns games as home dogs

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