Sep 14, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers offensive tackle Zach Banner (72) is taken away from the field after being injured during the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers vs Broncos Pick Week 2 Bet

There are so many UNDER trends in this game that it almost feels like a set-up by the oddsmakers at 41.5. Denver within the AFC, Denver overall, Pittsburgh vs the AFC, Pittsburgh as a favorite, Pittsburgh in Week 2 – all heavy UNDER trends. 

Both teams played on Monday night, with different results. Pittsburgh started off rough against the Giants but turned things around quickly once the defense got pressure on Daniel Jones. Ben Roethlisburger flashed what he once was, and looked good overall on Monday night after recovering from elbow surgery this offseason. 

Denver on the other hand lost on a game winning field goal by Stephen Gostkowski, and had a hard time putting up points against the Titans defense. Jerry Jeudy had a big drop in the fourth quarter that really hurt their chances of winning.

Denver is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog, and I like for that trend to continue as the opening line of -4.5 was bet all the way to -7.5 at BetRivers Sportsbook. I like Denver +7.5 on the road against the Steelers and reluctantly bet with all the UNDER trends because it seems like the best bet.

Why Denver will cover the spread

Drew Lock came into this season ready to take over the starting spot in Denver, and we got a glimpse of his potential on Monday night. He finished the game 22 of 33 for 216 yards and a TD, not bad for only his sixth career start. Denver’s defense was able to hold Derrick Henry to under four yards a carry, and will be tasked with slowing down James Conner and Benny Snell Jr this week. 

Denver’s defense gives me the confidence in the +7.5 line. Pittsburgh also has a tough defense, meaning this game should be low-scoring. The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games vs conference foes and I expect that to continue this week. If Lock can build off the last game and keep improving, I like Denver to hold +7.5. 

Why Pittsburgh will cover the spread

Big Ben is back, with a tough start on Monday night against the Giants but finished strong completing over 65 per cent of his passes. The Steelers path to cover will be whether Big Ben can build off his game on Monday night. Denver has a strong pass rush, even with Von Miller out. Bradley Chubb and Jeremiah Attaochu will have to be contained, and getting Snell Jr going again could lead to a Pittsburgh cover. 

Steelers Broncos Pick

I really like Denver at +7.5. That half a point is huge, as I think Pittsburgh does win but keeps it within seven points. I also love the under here as the UNDER is 17-4 in Denver’s last 21 vs AFC teams. Take the UNDER and Denver +7.5. 

 

Brenden Deeg is from Ajax, Ontario and has been an NFL writer for over 5 years. Brenden has contributed to FanSided and 4th and Jawn. Brenden also played Defensive Line at York University, in Toronto Canada. Brenden is a Philadelphia Eagles fan, and active in the Philadelphia Eagles twitter community. You can follow his personal account here @eaglestalk_  He can reached at Brenden.Deeg@NationalFootballPost.com