When the Green Bay Packers have scored more than 22 points, they are 2-0 ATS this season. What’s interesting about this stat is the Pittsburgh Steelers have given up an average of 22 points this season.
The Packers will host the Steelers at Lambeau Field as 6.5-point favorites. The Packers are coming off a miraculous win on Sunday Night Football over the San Francisco 49ers. Aaron Rodgers led a comeback with 37 seconds left and no timeouts.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are coming off an ugly loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was sacked four times and threw two interceptions in a hideous offensive performance. But beware the Steelers are underdogs, as they own a huge money-making trend when catching points.
Why Pittsburgh Steelers can cover the spread
The Steelers’ offense has been completely out of sync. They are 24th in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and it looks like the change to offensive coordinator Matt Canada won’t help this offense.
If the Steelers can’t move the ball against the Packers’ defense, they are in some serious trouble. The Packers defense is 26th in DVOA and 24th in points per game allowed. The weakness of the Packers is their run defense. Rookie running back Najee Harris needs to start proving he was worth the first-round pick. Harris had 142 yards from scrimmage last week, but many of those yards were on short screen passes. It’s time for Matt Canada to dial up a good running game plan.
Why Green Bay Packers can cover the spread
After last week’s performance against the Bengals, Pittsburgh’s defense shouldn’t scare anybody. Since Week 1, the Steelers defense has given up 50 combined points to the Raiders and Bengals.
T.J Watt is back this week, however, Green Bay’s offensive line has done a great job through three weeks. The Packers are 7th in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate metric. The Steelers are 20th in passing yards allowed, and don’t have a number one cornerback who can slow down Davante Adams.
Adams has been a monster the last two weeks. He has 20 catches for 253 yards and a touchdown and is clearly still this best wide receiver in football.
Steelers Packers Betting Pick
I will be fading the Steelers until they can prove they have even somewhat of a competent offense. This is my favorite bet of the week.
Steelers Packers Betting Trends
Steelers are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when playing as the underdog
Steelers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in October.
Packers are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games at home
Packers Steelers Props