Dec 26, 2021; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers defensive end Taco Charlton (98) reaches for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) as he scrambles in the back field during the first quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

Steelers Chiefs Pick, KC Rolls

Two future Hall of Fame quarterbacks do battle in Sunday night’s AFC wild-card matchup between Ben Roethlisberger’s Pittsburgh Steelers and Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs. But, of course, Big Ben is far beyond his prime while Mahomes is arguably the greatest quarterback in the sport smack dab in the midst of his prime.

That’s just one reason the Chiefs are favored by 12.5 points for this potentially lopsided contest. Another? The Steelers have allowed 129 points in past three playoff games, all losses

This is biggest Steelers dog number since +13.5 vs Dallas in Super Bowl 30 (Jan. 26, 1996). Let’s look at both sides to see if they can continue their profitable run as underdogs.

Steelers Chiefs Betting Pick, Odds: KC -12.5, Total 46 | Matchup Report 

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Roethlisberger is about to retire and will likely do his best to avoid going out in embarrassing fashion. Top back Najee Harris is also getting healthier for a Steelers offense that needs its tools to be as sharp as possible with a low margin for error.

The Steelers are also a group of veteran fighters who have won three of their last four games, have little to lose after sneaking into the playoffs and are getting a healthy amount of points from a team that can be hot and cold.

As an underdog, Pittsburgh is 17-5-1 ATS in their past 23 games when catching points.


Five of Kansas City’s last eight playoff games have resulted in double-digit Chiefs victories, and these teams truly are miles apart when it comes to practically every metric. The Steelers defense is good, not amazing, and Mahomes and Co. won four of their last eight regular-season games by double-digit margins.

Plus, Harris is far from 100 percent and it doesn’t look as though JuJu Smith-Schuster will be back to rescue the Pittsburgh offense.

Steelers Chiefs Betting Pick

The Steelers are lucky to be here, while the Chiefs look determined to roll to the Super Bowl for the third year in a row. I doubt Pittsburgh serves as more than a minor speed bump. Chiefs roll in blowout fashion.

Chiefs Steelers Prop Picks

Ray-Ray McCloud +390 (FanDuel)

He has 19 targets in his last two games.

Tyreek Hill 2+ +400 (DraftKings)

The Chiefs are a hard team to find value on. This game will be the Hill and Kelce show.

Jerick McKinnon +600 (FanDuel)

He had eight touches and a touchdown last week.

Kansas City Pittsburgh Betting Trends

Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games

Steelers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as the underdog.


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