Steelers Dolphins Pick, Pitt covers a TD

Tua Tagovailoa, the NFL’s highest-rated passer, is set to return to the Miami Dolphins lineup Sunday night as the slumping Phins host the shabby Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers come off a home upset victory over Tampa Bay aiming to extend Miami’s three-game losing skid. Miami has injury problems and may not have the firepower to blow out the Steelers.

With Miami favored by a touchdown at home, let’s look at both sides.

Steelers Dolphins Pick: Odds MIAMI -7, Total 45.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Stats 

WHY THE STEELERS WILL COVER

They showed some life in a Week 6 victory over the much stronger Buccaneers, and while Tua is back, he might not have left tackle Terron Armstead.

While a historical stat like this doesn’t guarantee success this week, it is an unusual trend. The Steelers are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games played in Week 7. And they are always a tough out when getting this many points.

WHY THE DOLPHINS WILL COVER

That Week 6 effort might have been an aberration for a Steelers team that has lost its last two road games by a combined 47 points. And in either case – rookie Kenny Pickett or semi-hopeless Mitch Trubisky – Miami’s defense can get after the QB and cause havoc.

Miami is a profitable play at home, covering 16 of their last 22 home matches.

STEELERS DOLPHINS PICK

We’re still looking at too many points here for Miami considering that Tua’s sample is small, Armstead’s hurt and the Steelers were solid last week. Mike Tomlin’s squad keeps this close. Miami by a field goal.

Steelers Dolphins Anytime TD Props

Coming soon…

Miami Pittsburgh Betting Trends

OVER is 14-2 Miami’s last 16 games played in Week 7.

Dolphins are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games played in October.

UNDER is 10-1 Pittsburgh’s last 11 games vs the AFC East division.

Steelers are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games played in week 7.

Dolphins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games at home