Dec 20, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens (4) hands off to running back Raheem Mostert (31) against the Dallas Cowboys in the first quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

49ers Cowboys Pick, Dallas Small Home Faves

Did Dallas get back on track in Week 18 or should bettors be nervous even after they hung 51 points on the Eagles B team? And should bettors buy the 49ers defense hype, after San Francisco rallied to beat the Rams to earn this playoff spot?

There are trends aplenty here, many positive for both teams. But some troubling late-season historical trends make Cowboys backers skittish (3-10 ATS past 13 playoff games, 2-11 ATS past 13 games in January).

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49ers Cowboys Pick, Odds: -3, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the 49ers can cover the spread

San Fran went 7-2 SU and ATS in the second half and Jimmy Garoppolo was terrific in the rally over the Rams. Still, they lost to undermanned Tennessee and at Seattle over the past six weeks, so its fair to wonder if their current form is legit.

The 49ers have been profitable as dogs (12-5 ATS run) and terrific 10-1-1 ATS streak in the month of January. The offensive line kept Aaron Donald and company off Jimmy G last week, it needs to do the same against an aggressive Cowboys pass rush. If that happens, playmakers named George Kittle and Deebo Samuel can go to work.

When Dallas has won big, it has been against undermanned or Covid-addled foes. But when the going got tough (even against a short-handed Cardinals team), the tough Cowboys did not get going.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

In two of their final three games, the offense put up 50+ points. They won’t do that against the 49ers, but they are capable of offensive outbursts and the defense feeds off that.

The Cowboys come in reasonably healthy and boast a terrific ATS mark within the conference (11-1 ATS) and 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games as favorites. The disturbing trend relates to playoff action and games played in January when they historically have found ways to lose.

On paper, Dallas has the superior squad and can easily cover this number at home.

49ers Cowboys Pick

Both teams are capable of stinking it up but if both teams play well, Dallas has the better team and home-field advantage. We play on Dallas to cover a field goal or more.

Dallas -3

Niners Cowboys Prop Picks

Jauan Jennings +270 (FanDuel)

Jennings has really played well lately. He had seven targets and two touchdowns last week.

Kyle Juszczyk +650 (FanDuel)

He plays at least 50% of the snaps in every game. I can see him getting a couple of red zone touches.

CeeDee Lamb 2+ +700 (DraftKings)

He led the team with 115 targets. At these odds, it’s worth the swing.

San Francisco Dallas Betting Trends

Cowboys are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 conference games

49ers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in January

OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings in Dallas

49ers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog

Cowboys were 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played in January before blowing out Philly’s B team last week

Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as the favorite.

UNDER is 7-1 San Francisco’s last 8 games as playoff underdogs

Cowboys 3-10 ATS past 13 playoff games

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