Sep 20, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA;  Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) talks with head coach Matt LaFleur during the third quarter of the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

49ers Packers Pick, Rodgers over Jimmy G

The San Francisco 49ers have won three straight playoff games vs. the Green Bay Packers (2013, 2014, 2020), and everybody remembers the ass whooping they gave the Packers just two years ago. However, this year feels different. 

The Packers finished with the best record in the NFL and second in offensive DVOA. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as playoff favorites, and 12-4 ATS in their previous 16 games.

Betting against Aaron Rodgers right now would be a bad business decision. Since Week 10, Rodgers has had 20 TDs and 0 INTs and has only turned the ball over twice since Week 2. I will not be betting against the Green Bay Packers in these playoffs. Take the Packers -6 at FanDuel. 

49ers Packers Betting Pick, Odds: GB -6, Total 47 | Matchup Stats 

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Why the 49ers will cover the spread

The 49ers’ offense has been highly efficient this season, finishing sixth in EPA per play. Their running game has become just as dangerous as it was back in 2020, where they ran for 285 yards on the Packers in the NFC Championship game. 

Deebo Samuel has become the most exciting player in the NFL. He has 612 total yards since Week 15 and plays all over the offense, making life miserable for opposing defensive coordinators. 

The 49ers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when playing as the underdog and 11-1-1 ATS in their previous 13 games played in January, including covering eight straight games. 

Why the Packers will cover the spread

Green Bay’s offense gets all the attention, but their defense has been solid this season, finishing 13th in points per game allowed and tied for seventh in takeaways. They will get a ton of reinforcements on that side of the ball, as Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith will be back for this game.

Jimmy Garoppolo is dealing with a sprained shoulder and a torn ligament in his thumb. How many more injuries can this guy take on? It looks like he will play, but even if he does, he won’t be himself. Garoppolo has thrown five interceptions in his last three games. 

The Packers are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games at home (17-6 ATS past 23) and are 15-4 SU in their previous 19 games played on a Saturday.

49ers Packers Betting Pick

Garoppolo’s injuries are a genuine concern. The Packers’ defense has been ferocious, forcing you to make quick decisions. I don’t see a banged-up Jimmy putting up many points on this defense. 

Packers -6

Packers 49ers Prop Picks – Anytime TD

Randall Cobb +230

Cobb will be the third wide receiver on the Packers with MVS out. He is back healthy and has five touchdowns this season.

Davante Adams 2+ +420

This pick is pretty self-explanatory. He is the best weapon on the field in this game.

Elijah Mitchell 2+ +650

The Packers are 30th in EPA per rush since Week 13. The 49ers will be able to run the ball.

Davante Adams OVER 94.5 Receiving Yards -114 (FanDuel)

He is going to have a monster day.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards -114 (FanDuel)

Similar to Adams, Mitchell is going to have a big day.

San Francisco Green Bay Betting Trends

Niners won 3 straight playoff games vs Green Bay (2013, 2014, 2020)

Niners have been playoff underdog just three times since 1980, lost all three 0-3 ATS

Packers 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS past nine as playoff favorites

Packers have played 11 straight January OVERs

Packers are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games at home (17-6 ATS past 23)

Niners are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in January, including 8 straight

Niners are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games at Green Bay.

Niners played 6 straight OVERs vs NFC North teams

Niners are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played on a Saturday.

Niners are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when playing as the underdog.

Packers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.

Packers are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games played on a Saturday.


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