Dec 5, 2021; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) looks to pass in the fourth quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

49ers Rams Pick, NFC Title Game Upset

The Rams are favored, but its the 49ers who have owned this matchup over the years, as LA hosts San Francisco in the NFC Championship game.

San Francisco has swept the series three straight seasons for a 6-0 SU run, most recently a Week 17 OT win here that got the Niners into the playoffs. And Kyle Shanahan generally gets credit for out-coaching Sean McVay at every turn when these divisional rivals clash.

So is the 3.5 points offered at sportsbooks such as FanDuel and Draft Kings a bargain for Niner backers? They also boast terrific recent form on the road, as underdogs and in the month of January – all three of those situations are in play.

San Francisco 49ers LA Rams Pick, Odds: Rams -3.5, Total 46 | Matchup Report

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Why the 49ers can cover NFC Championship Spread

If they win, they cover – and winning against the Rams has been pretty easy for San Francisco over the past few seasons.

The Niners will run the ball and try to mitigate the game-wrecking skills of Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd. Rookie Elijah Mitchell mixes with WR/RB Deebo Samuel to create matchup challenges and TE George Kittle will eventually have a big game.

Rams shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey can’t cover everyone and expect Jimmy G to move his eyes – and passes – away from Ramsey.

On defense, the 49ers have improved dramatically over the second half. But it’s a few interesting historical angles that have hesitant bettors ready to lay down their cash. The Niners have covered nine straight games in January and have lined the pockets of bettors over many years with a 16-4-1 ATS run when the calendar flips from December.

They are also 14-5 ATS in 19 recent games as underdogs and 10-3 ATS in 13 games vs the Rams. While San Francisco has limped to a 2-5 SU mark in their past seven divisional games, that stat is irrelevant since the two victories are against the Rams.

Why the Rams can cover NFC Championship Spread

If the 49ers have a defensive weakness, it’s the secondary, which should be a target for Matthew Stafford and his stud wideouts Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. But to soften up the passing game, LA should commit to the running game.

Get Sony Michel and Cam Akers rolling and the play-action game will open up. Problem – Akers had the dropsies last week and nearly cost the Rams a win over Tampa. The Rams were good early and lucky late.

LA boasts plenty of play-wreckers as mentioned above which can disrupt Jimmy G before he even gets started. They haven’t been great at home this year and they don’t have many trends or angles for bettors to hang their hat on – they do boast superior talent and we are at the stage of the NFL playoffs where talent – and health – decide who gets to move on.

San Francisco 49ers LA Rams Pick

We expect this line may move to -3 during the week, so we are grabbing the hook while it is still available and backing the 49ers at +3.5. We see them winning outright here – probably a last-second field goal? But even if that script flips to the Rams winning late, we can pocket cash by having San Fran +3.5.

Rams 49ers Props – Anytime TD Picks

Read more in Deeg’s weekly Anytime TD Scorer Prop picks article

Tyler Higbee +210 (DraftKings )

Jauan Jennings +440 (FanDuel)

Kyle Juszcyk +600 (DraftKings – bet $5, get $280 in FREE BETS!)

Rams 49ers Betting Trends

49ers played UNDER in 6 straight playoff road games (9-1 past 10)

49ers 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Rams

49ers covered 9 straight games in January, 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in this month.

49ers just are 2-5 SU in their last 7 divisional games

49ers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as the underdog

Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

UNDER is 16-6 LA Rams’ last 22 games at home.

Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Sunday home games

Check out the current odds and playoff bonus offers for new players at FanDuel.

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.

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