49ers Vikings Pick, Kittle TD, Vikes cover

After dominating the NFL during the first five weeks of the 2023 season, the San Francisco 49ers finally tripped up in Week 6. Was that a sign of things to come for a banged-up team with a relatively unproven quarterback?

Or was it a one-off aberration for a juggernaut? San Francisco has been a cover machine as chalk, on the road and on Monday Nights whereas the Vikings have ben a disaster at home.

We’ll find out Monday night when San Francisco – minus Deebo Samuel and with a questionable Christian McCaffrey – travels to Minnesota as a touchdown favorite over the desperate, 2-4 Vikings.

49ers Vikings Pick: Minnesota +7, Total 44 | Matchup Report

Why the 49ers will cover the spread

Injuries to Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams don’t appear to be long-term, and all three could play Monday night. Meanwhile, the Vikings have often looked like toast, and the offense could muster just a dozen first downs without star receiver Justin Jefferson last week in Chicago.

Minnesota does not cover at home (0-6 ATS streak) and the 49ers ride a 19-2 ATS streak n MNF road games.

Why the Vikings will cover the spread

Even if McCaffrey, Samuel and Williams play, they won’t be 100 percent for a team that suddenly looked extremely flawed in Cleveland and remains on the road for a potentially scrappy opponent in prime time. That’s not an ideal recipe, especially when you’re laying a full seven points.

The 49ers are just 1-4 ATS in their past 5 road games and have lost 6 straight here and 1-9 ATS over the years.

49ers Vikings pick

The 49ers will likely still win this game, but those injuries and a discouraging performance from Brock Purdy in his first regular-season loss are cause for some alarm. Throw in how much Kirk Cousins and Co. need this thing in front of a national audience at home, and consider the potential for a backdoor cover, and I’m rolling with Minnesota.

Vikings 49ers Props

George Kittle +155 Anytime TD at Draft Kings – Kittle is the lone fully healthy option in the 49ers passing game and the Vikings give up the fourth most passing yards at home.

Alexander Mattinson OVER 44.5 yards at Draft Kings – No Justin Jefferson and Mattinson has had 16 plus carries two of past three weeks, they need a ground game today.

San Francisco Minnesota Betting Trends

49ers 1-4 ATS past 5 road games

49ers have lost 6 straight at Minnesota and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 here

UNDER in 10 of Minnesota’s last 12 games played on a Monday.

Vikings failed to cover 6 straight at home

49ers are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 conference games

49ers are 4-17-1 ATS in their last 22 games played in Week 7.

49ers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games played on a Monday.

49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as the favorite.

Vikings are 1-8-1 ATS, 1-9 SU in their last 10 games as the underdog.

49ers are 17-2 ATS in their last 19 MNF road games