Jan 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni talks with defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (97) and defensive end Brandon Graham (55) during an injury timeout in the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

49ers Eagles Pick, NFC Title Game Props

If great defense defeats great offense, the NFC title game could go UNDER as the San Francisco 49ers visit the Philadelphia Eagles as 2.5-point underdogs.

Bettors continue to await a Brock Purdy implosion and there were signs of it against Dallas. Philly will bring pressure, but can they handle the 49ers ground game?

Philly destroyed the Giants last week and there are UNDER trends galore including 18-5, 10-1 and 9-2 streaks to consider. On the spread, almost everything points to San Francisco covering this small spread.


49ers Eagles Pick: Odds -2.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the 49ers can cover the spread

When you have the league’s top-rated defense and an explosive star-studded offense, you can always cover the spread, especially a small one. And the 49ers have dominated the NFC (19-3 ATS past 22 games within the conference), they have won 12 straight while covering 10 and are 13-1 ATS in their past 14 games in January.

Purdy doesn’t need to be great, he just needs to get the ball to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk (see our TD prop pick below), George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. Their defense should be able to contain the Eagles – if anything, this game looks like a clock-grinding defensive battle with every yard contested.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

When you have a defense that ranks first in almost every category against the pass and an offense featuring Devonta Smith and A.J. Brown, you can always cover the spread, especially a small one.

Philly’s first job is slowing the run, then attacking Purdy and the pass. If they succeed on both fronts, this will be a 24-10 win. If they fail, they can still manage a win and a cover of 2.5 points.

The Eagles historically dominate the 49ers (8-2 ATS) and they almost always win when favored (19-2 SU past 21 when laying points). The weather favors Philly, the home crowd favors Philly.

49ers Eagles Pick

Philly has found ways to win this year even when they don’t play well, and there is no reason to suggest they won’t play well here with the Super Bowl trip on the line. We like the Eagles to win and for this game to stay UNDER the total.

Eagles 49ers TD Props

DeVonta Smith +180

Smith led the Eagles in receiving yards in the divisional round. Charvarius Ward is expected to follow around A.J. Brown, leaving Smith a favorable matchup against Deommodore Lenoir. The 49ers finished tied for 21st in TDs allowed against wide receivers this season.

Brandon Aiyuk +270

This is great value for Aiyuk. He came up with huge catches in the red zone against the Cowboys. The Eagles also finished tied for 21st in touchdowns allowed against wide receivers.

49ers Eagles betting trends

49ers have won 12 straight games, 10-2 ATS

Eagles are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games as the favorite.

Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against San Francisco.

49ers have covered 9 straight conference games and are 19-3 ATS in their last 22 games

49ers are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in January.

UNDER is 18-5 Philadelphia’s last 23 games played in January.

49ers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as the underdog.

Eagles played 5 straight playoff UNDERs since winning Super Bowl 53

UNDER is 10-1 past 11 Eagles playoff home games

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 49ers playoff games

49ers are 7-1 ATS past 8 playoff games

49ers played 7 straight playoff road UNDERs


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