Sep 18, 2021; Oxford, Mississippi, USA; Mississippi Rebels quarterback Matt Corral (2) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Sugar Bowl betting pick: Ole Miss Baylor OVER?

A Sugar Bowl betting pick on the spread is tricky as Ole Miss faces Baylor (-1 as of Dec. 27), but the total prediction seems an obvious one.

55 points is the lowest Ole Miss OU number since 2019 and Heisman finalist Matt Corral leads a Rebels team that ranked fifth in offensive yards at 506 YPG. They also have just the 102nd rated defense, which sounds like a lot of scoring.

Baylor rallied late in the season and beat Oklahoma State to win the Big 12. The Bears also averaged 32.5 PPG on the season, meaning the average offensive scoring total of these teams is 68.5. Noteworthy: Ole Miss has won 6 straight January games with a 5-0-1 ATS record.

Baylor Bears vs. Ole Miss Rebels (-1, Total 55 at Draft Kings) – Matchup Report

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Sugar Bowl Betting Pick

Ole Miss was 10-2 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread this season, finishing the regular season on a four-game winning streak with a 3-1 ATS record. The Rebels have gone Under the posted total in their last seven games. Ole Miss has had some trouble on the road with a 4-4 SU and ATS record in their last eight, and a 4-10 SU and 6-8 ATS record in their last 14. When favored they’ve won eight straight with a 5-2-1 ATS record.

The Rebels are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine bowl games. They have gone Under in four straight bowl games and seven of their last nine. As a bowl game favorite, the Rebels are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven.

Baylor was 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS this season. That includes defeating Oklahoma State 21-16 in the Big 12 Championship Game as a 7-point underdog. As an underdog the Bears are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight.

If they end up being an underdog, beware fading them – they are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games when playing as the underdog.

The Bears are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four bowl games. When listed as a bowl game underdog the Bears are a surprising 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five. In the 2020 Sugar Bowl Baylor lost to Georgia 26-14 as a 3.5-point underdog.

There are no recent matchups between Baylor and Ole Miss, but in their last three games against SEC opponents Baylor is 1-2 SU and ATS. In their last seven games against Big 12 opponents Ole Miss is 5-2 SU and ATS.

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