Feb 2, 2020; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is dunked with Gatorade by his players in the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LIV at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends

They have the better quarterback, the better coaches, the better defense and have been playing better, but the Kansas City Chiefs are still underdogs a week before Suer Bowl 58 vs the San Francisco 49ers.

So how do Super Bowl 58 betting trends stack up, especially with Kansas City as the underdog? Pound the Chiefs.

In their past 22 games as an underdog, the Chiefs are 17-4-1 ATS. And they have won outright the past three times as a playoff dog. What trends point to the 49ers? They have won eight in a row as playoff favorites and won 11 of their past 14 games away from SoFi Stadium.

For coin toss bettors, last season broke an 8-game streak where the winner of the toss ended up losing the game. The Chiefs called tails, won and then rallied to beat the Eagles in Super Bowl 57.

Check out the rest of our Super Bowl 58 betting trends.

Chiefs are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games as the underdog.

Chiefs have covered 5 straight games and also covered 5 straight playoff games

Chiefs won outright past three games as playoff dog

UNDER is 12-4 past 16 KC games

49ers won 8 straight as playoff chalk dating to 2014

Chiefs 6-1 ATS past 7 games vs 49ers

49ers won 11 of 14 away from SoFi Stadium

49ers just 3-7 ATS in past 10 non-conference games

Chiefs are 9-3 ATS their last 12 non-conference games

Long-term trend? Chiefs have won 70 of their last 88 games

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Archived Super Bowl betting trends article from Feb. 3, 2023

Cincinnati bucked a 12-year Super Bowl trend last when they covered the point spread while losing the game outright.

Before that, bettors didn’t really need to handicap the line, they just needed to predict which team would win as 12 straight teams that won had covered the spread. And the Super Bowl 57 point spread is so tight (1.5 points favoring the Eagles as of Feb. 3) that picking the winner – either the Kansas City Chiefs or the Philadelphia Eagles – is the only real challenge.

The total was sitting at 50.5, a high number and possibly a recipe for a fifth straight Super Bowl UNDER. Underdogs are now on an 11-4 ATS run in Super Bowls although KC is 0-5 ATS as a playoff dog dating to 1994.

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Super Bowl 58 Betting Trends

Kansas City has dominated the NFC in recent years, proven by their 17-1 SU mark in 18 recent non-conference games. That lone loss was to Tampa Bay a few Super Bowls ago. Philly has also dominated non-conference play, wining 7 straight vs the AFC.

And Philly almost always wins when it is favored, proven by its 20-2 SU streak when they lay points.

Super Bowl Coin Toss Trends

We get into this more in our annual report on betting the Super Bowl coin toss, but this is a great way to start the game with some profits. In eight straight Super Bowls, the team that won the toss lost the game.

And if you think you know Tails will hit, you better bet the Eagles will win the coin toss. Why? The last 17 times that Tails hit, the NFC team won the toss!

And if Patrick Mahomes wins the NFL MVP award as expected, beware this 9-game streak. Not since Kurt Warner won the MVP and also the Super Bowl in 1999 has a reigning MVP won the Super Bowl. Since then, regular season MVPs have failed nine times.

NFL MVPs Lose Super Bowl

Kurt Warner in 2001

Rich Gannon in 2002

Shaun Alexander in 2005

Tom Brady in 2007

Peyton Manning in 2009

Peyton Manning and 2013

Cam Newton in 2015

Matt Ryan in 2016

Tom Brady in 2017

Super Bowl 57 Trends

Philadelphia is 20-2 SU in their last 22 games when playing as the favorite.

Kansas City is 17-1 SU in their last 18 games vs the NFC including 10 straight

Chiefs 10-3 SU past 13 games away from home, OVER is 10-3

Eagles have won 7 straight vs the AFC

Kansas City is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog.

OVER is 12-4 Kansas City’s last 16 games when playing as the underdog.

Chiefs 8-1 SU past 9 games after a bye week

Eagles have played 6 straight playoff UNDERs, 9-2 past 11

Eagles are 7-2 ATS past 9 playoff games

Chiefs failed to cover past 5 games as playoff underdogs dating to 1994

 

Bet SB 58!!

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