TAMPA BAY ARIZONA Pick, Otto, Gage TDs

December 23, 2022 - Brad Gagnon

The NFL world expected so much more from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals this season. Both have disappointed mightily, but the Bucs at least remain in the picture in the weak NFC South.

There are UNDER trends here, even though we lean towards the OVER 40.5 and Trend Dummy has found mostly negative betting trends for both teams.

The Bucs are laying 7.5 points as the two collide Sunday night in Glendale. That’s a big ask for a team riding a 1-10-1 ATS streak. Let’s look at both sides.

Tampa Bay Arizona Pick: Odds ARZ +7.5, Total 40.5 | Matchup Stats

WHY THE BUCS WILL COVER

Do the Cardinals have much left in them at this point? It’s been more than two months since they’ve won a home game and each of their last two defeats have come by more than a touchdown.

Going back to 2020, the Cards are 6-15 ATS in 21 games at home and have proven a wallet drain in the month of December at 1-6 ATS past seven games.

WHY THE CARDS WILL COVER

Tampa’s laying more than a touchdown on the road? Yikes. The Bucs haven’t won a single game by this margin since Week 2.

True the Cardinals are 1-12 SU in 13 recent home games but they are 7-2 ATS in their past 9 vs Tampa Bay.

TAMPA BAY ARIZONA PICK

Something continues to be wrong with Tampa on both sides of the ball. That number is far too high away from Florida, where the backdoor could be a factor too. I’ll take Arizona. We also like the OVER 40.5 to prevail here with the midweek UNDER too low in our opinion.

Tampa Bay Arizona Anytime TD Props

Cade Otton +400

The Cardinals have given up the most yards and touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season.

Russell Gage +330

He grabbed one last week and Brady rewards reliability and production. More targets for Gage here and good value too.

Arizona Tampa Bay Betting Trends

Bucs are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games

Cardinals are 1-12 SU in their last 13 games at home, 6-15 ATS past 21 at home

Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against Tampa Bay.

Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played in December.

Each team has played UNDER in 8 of past 11 seasons in Week 16

UNDER is 10-2 Tampa Bay’s last 12 games as the favorite.