Divisional tilts on short weeks are tough handicaps but there is value on the Falcons as they host Tampa Bay in the Week 5 Thursday Nighter.
On a lookahead line, Atlanta would have been favored by 4-5 points so the fact Tampa Bay has overachieved so far means they are slightly over-valued here. That heat comes off a surprise rout of the flawed Eagles last week.
The trends point UNDER here but the Falcons perform poorly as chalk (2-10 ATS run) and at home (8-19 ATS past 27) while the Bucs do well as dogs (9-2 ATS past 11) and on the road (9-2 ATS).
Bucs Falcons Picks: Odds ATL -1.5, Total 44 | Matchup Report
Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread
Tampa is 3-1 despite mediocre play on both sides of the ball. Are they lucky or a good team earning good wins? A short week might not answer that question definitely, but it may play into the Bucs scrappy strengths.
They have won and covered 6 of 8 divisional road games and they face a Falcons team that has struggled ATS at home for several years.
Why Atlanta can cover the spread
Tampa hasn’t shown consistency so far, getting mauled by Denver, while Atlanta is also guilty of this. But we trust Kirk Cousins in the regular season and expect him to continue gelling with his talented receiving corps.
The Bucs haven’t been able to stop any QBs through the air and they are historically bad in October. They are also just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 Thursday games.
Atlanta has the superior roster and talent and play at home as a PK which is good value.
Tampa Bay Atlanta Pick
We don’t trust Baker Mayfield on the road and we think Atlanta is the better team by a wide margin. Playing a divisional game at home when they really cannot fall further behind the Bucs serves as plenty motivation here. We love the Falcons -1.5 and like the UNDER.
Tampa Bay Atlanta Betting Trends
Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the favorite.
OVER is 12-4 past 16 meetings
OVER is 7-1 past 8 meetings here
Bucs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
Bucs are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games played in October
Bucs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on a Thursday.
Bucs are 9-2 ATS past 11 games as underdogs
Falcons are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games at home
Falcons have played UNDER past 7 Thursday Nighters
