Oct 8, 2023; London United Kingdom, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17)] throws the ball under pressure from Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi (94) during the first half of an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay vs Buffalo Pick, TNF UNDER?

Buffalo has been terrible since stomping Miami a month ago, while Tampa Bay has regressed with consecutive losses. Can you trust the Bills with 8.5 points at home or should bettors be checking out the UNDER trends here in the Week 8 Thursday Nighter?

Dawson Knox is out for Buffalo and the Bills defense has injuries galore. But Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin are banged up which potentially limits the effectiveness of two key weapons.

Tampa Bay is riding an UNDER trend overall, on the road, as an underdog while the Bills tend to play UNDER on short weeks (10-3 past 13 Thursdays).

Tampa Bay Buffalo Pick: Odds BUF -8.5, Total 43.5 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Draft Kings sportsbook

Rated 5/5

100% BONUS UP TO $1000

A pioneer in the sports betting space, one of just three wagering partners hand-picked by the NFL and a lively mobile product full of great odds and betting variety. Check out Draft Kings today.

Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread

The Bills have been struggling on both sides of the ball and have a short week to recover, making this an ideal cover spot for Tampa Bay. They also enjoy a 7-1-1 ATS run vs Buffalo going back to 1980.

The Tampa red-zone defense ranks #1 in the league, which gives them a chance to force field goals and hang around in the game. With 8.5 points on give, the Bucs can manage this number.

Why Buffalo can cover the spread

The Bills will change things up on offense, minus Knox and being forced into more 3 WR sets. It should create some variety and momentum for Josh Allen.

Buffalo usually wins SU in non-conference games (11-2 SU) and the Bucs seldom cover vs AFC teams (0-6 ATS).

Tampa Bay Buffalo Pick

Tampa Bay has played five straight UNDERs when catching points and the Bills offense has shown no signs of life over three games. Combine a struggling offense with a top-rated RZ defense sprinkle in injury woes on a short week and we see this game UNDER 43.5.

Bucs Bills Props

Khalil Shakir +700 Anytime TD Scorer Bills @ Draft Kings – Dawson Knox is out, the expectation is more 3 WR sets for Buffalo and more options beyond Stefon Diggs. We like Shakir here at 7-1.

More coming soon, check Draft Kings for great Same Game Parlays specials…

Tampa Bay Buffalo Betting Trends

Bucs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played on a Thursday.

Bills are 11-2 SU in their last 13 non-conference games

UNDER is 17-7 Tampa Bay’s last 24 games.

UNDER is 10-3 Tampa Bay’s last 13 games on the road.

UNDER is 10-3 Buffalo’s last 13 Thursdays.

Bucs have played 5 straight UNDERs as underdogs

Bills are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games against Tampa Bay.

Bucs failed to cover 6 straight vs AFC teams

Bills are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games played in Week 8.

Bucs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games played in Week 8.

Upcoming Games

Dec 7th, 8:15 PM

New England +6.5 -110

Pittsburgh -6.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Detroit -5.5 -116

Chicago +5.5 -116


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Carolina +6.5 -103

New Orleans -6.5 -103


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay +2.5 -106

Atlanta -2.5 -106


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

LA Rams +6.5 -118

Baltimore -6.5 -118


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Indianapolis -0.5 -110

Cincinnati +0.5 -110


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Jacksonville -2.5 -115

Cleveland +2.5 -115


Dec 10th, 1:00 PM

Houston -5.5 -115

NY Jets +5.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Minnesota +0.5 -115

Las Vegas -0.5 -115


Dec 10th, 4:05 PM

Seattle +10.5 -108

San Francisco -10.5 -108


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Buffalo +2.5 -125

Kansas City -2.5 -125


Dec 10th, 4:25 PM

Denver +3.5 +103

LA Chargers -3.5 +103


Dec 10th, 8:20 PM

Philadelphia +1.5 -110

Dallas -1.5 -110


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Tennessee +11.5 -111

Miami -11.5 -111


Dec 11th, 8:15 PM

Green Bay -5.5 -102

NY Giants +5.5 -102


Dec 14th, 8:15 PM

LA Chargers

Las Vegas