Sep 9, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones (27) runs the ball against Dallas Cowboys cornerback Anthony Brown (30) during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Dallas Prediction, Bucs to Cover

Tom Brady is back for his 74th season, and it all starts with a fun Sunday night matchup between his Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys in Texas.

The Bucs are laying just 2.5 points on the road, but there’s a lot in play. Dallas has some injury concerns and Tampa Bay isn’t 100 per cent sold on its offensive line.

The Cowboys have owned the Bucs at home over the years (12-1 SU) but that was almost never with TB12 at the controls. The Cowboys have also been a reliable fade play as small regular-season home dogs (1-5 ATS). Let’s look at both sides.

Tampa Bay Dallas Prediction: Cowboys +2.5, Total 50.5 | Matchup Stats 

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Prescott may not be completely healthy for the Cowboys, and he is already without left tackle Tyron Smith and departed veteran receiver Amari Cooper. That’s a lot of change for the Cowboys to deal with, especially against a veteran Bucs squad quarterbacked by a legend who might be looking to make a prime-time statement after a weird offseason.


Brady did indeed have a weird offseason, and he’s not a young man by almost any standard now. The Cowboys were the league’s top-rated team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders in 2021, and you could argue they’re receiving a lot of disrespect as a home underdog with that in mind.

Tampa Bay Dallas Prediction

This new ankle injury is somewhat of a concern for Prescott considering the state of the rest of the offense. The Bucs are dealing with some key injuries as well, but Brady still has far more support right now. Tampa Bay should be able to take this by a field goal or more.

Tampa Bay Dallas Anytime TD Prop Picks

Simi Fehoko, WR, DAL: +470 at FanDuel

There is no No. 2 WR in Dallas following Amari Coopers departure. Fehoko has a year in Dallas already with great odds to bet on.

Rachaad White, RB, TB: +250 at FanDuel

Pass-catching rookie expected to see substantial work load behind Leonard Fournette. Creating a lot of buzz following preseason flashes.

Julio Jones, WR, TB: +200 at FanDuel

Chris Godwin likely not playing. Julio’s experience could make him an easy target for QB Tom Brady. I like Jones’s odds here to double your money.

Dalton Schultz, TE, DAL: +185 at FanDuel

Pass-catching TE who is coming off a breakout season. Schultz could emerge as top two option for QB Dak Prescott.

Dallas Tampa Bay Betting Trends

Cowboys are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games

Bucs are 18-5 SU in their last 23 road games

Bucs are 15-4 SU in their past 19 games as road chalk

Cowboys on 1-5 ATS regular season streak when small home chalk of 1-3 points

Tampa Bay Dallas Prediction – take Bucs -2.5