Oct 31, 2021; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA;  Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) looks to pass the ball against New Orleans Saints during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers Colts Prediction, TB Small Spread

The Indianapolis Colts looked great last week, beating the Buffalo Bills 41-15, as they dominated the line of scrimmage. Can the Colts replicate their success from last week against this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense? 

Probably not, as Football Outsiders have the Bucs as the fourth-best DVOA rush defense and allow the fewest yards per game on the ground. Carson Wentz is not going to outduel Tom Brady, and the Colts historically don’t win outright as the underdog, as they are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games as the underdog. But check their recent ATS mark in this role – 5-1 ATS past 6.

Regardless, the spread is only 3 points at FanDuel, I am all over the Bucs in this game. 

Buccaneers Colts Prediction: Odds IND +3, Total 53.5 | Matchup Report 

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Why Tampa Bay will cover the spread

From a strict roster perspective, the Bucs have a much better roster from top to bottom. Considering the talent discrepancy, the spread should be much higher than a field goal. 

Wentz hasn’t been asked to do much over the last two weeks, but he has struggled to get anything going in the passing game when he has. He is only completing 61 percent of his throws and averaging 143 yards per game during that stretch.

Overall this season, he has been slightly below average, ranking 16th in EPA per play. When the Bucs shut down the Colts run game, the Colts offense is going to stall. 

Why Indianapolis can cover the spread

Brady has run into an interception problem, as he has been picked off five times over his last three games. The Colts are tied for first in the NFL with 25 takeaways this season, so the Colts’ defense can make some plays to help out their offense. 

It looks like Antonio Brown is going to miss his fifth straight game with an ankle injury. Since Brown has been sidelined, the Bucs are 2-2 and only 15th in EPA per play on offense during his absence. They have also failed to cover the spread in their past five road games.

Historically, the Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tampa Bay.

Buccaneers Colts Prediction

The Colts will fall back down to earth this week. The Bucs are the better team, and you get them within a field goal spread. 

Buccaneers -3

Colts Bucs Betting Trends

Colts are 3-11 SU in their last 14 games as the underdog but 5-1 ATS past 6

Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tampa Bay.

Bucs failed to cover five straight road games

UNDER is 18-4 Tampa Bay’s last 22 games played in Week 12.

UNDER is 6-1 Indianapolis’ last 7 games played in Week 12

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