Does avenging a Super Bowl loss feel better if you do it many times? Kansas City hosts Tampa Bay in the Week 9 Monday Nighter with memories of that Super Bowl LV drubbing still fresh and with the Bucs fading a bit after a hot start.
The Chiefs have won 13 straight and ride a 10-2-1 ATS mark in those games, although they failed to cover in Vegas last week and face 8.5 points here.
Tampa usually loses to AFC teams (2-10 SU) and seldom cover MNF (2-7 ATS). KC meanwhile dominate the NFC at 13-3 ATS going back several seasons.
Tampa Bay Kansas City Prediction: Odds KC -8.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report
Why Tampa Bay can cover the spread
Maybe Tampa isn’t as good as they looked early but they are also not as bad as they looked recently.
The Bucs have won 6 of 8 vs KC and are 8-3 ATS over 11 meetings going back decades. They are also on a nice 10-3 ATS run as a road team. And the Chiefs need to lose eventually right? Right?
They come off three losses in four games where they gave up on average 36 point in the losses. That tends to suggest an OVER play here but we tend to not like that trend.
Why the Chiefs can cover the spread
Tampa has the second-worst road passing defense so far and if you don’t think Patrick Mahomes will exploit that stat, you are not paying attention. KC has a real knack vs the NFC and have been almost unbeatable when the calendar flips to November (15-1 SU run).
So here we are, looking to extend a 13-game win streak facing a hungry foe off consecutive losses. It feels like a trap but the Chiefs are just starting to play well and will soon start getting healthier.
Tampa Bay Kansas City Prediction
The Bucs rush the ball well on the road but the Chiefs stop the run at home. The Bucs score on the road but the Chiefs defense is better here. Injuries still dot both lineups and the Chiefs trend heavily UNDER in home games and on MNF. We play UNDER here.
Tampa Bay Kansas City Betting Trends
Chiefs have won 13 straight (10-2-1 ATS) and 15 of 16 SU in November
Bucs have played 5 straight OVERs
Bucs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Kansas City.
Bucs are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
Bucs are 2-10 SU in their last 12 non-conference games
Bucs are 2-11 SU past 13 seasons in Week 9
Bucs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played on a Monday.
UNDER is 17-5 Kansas City’s last 22 games at home.
Chiefs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games
UNDER is 9-2 Kansas City’s last 11 games played on a Monday.
