new england patriots home underdogs

Bucs Pats Betting Pick, Tom Brady Return

Breaking news: Tom Brady is back in Foxborough Sunday night.

Wait, you already knew that?

Maybe the breaking news is that Brady will actually be joined by his Super Bowl champion team, and that Bill Belichick’s roster will also be on the field at Gillette Stadium in Week 4. The focus is on Brady and Belichick for obvious reasons, but Tampa Bay-New England is also an intriguing matchup in general.

The Bucs are coming off their first loss in 11 games, while the Patriots are trying to salvage their season and avoid their first three-game home losing streak since the turn of the century.

Let’s size up one of the most highly anticipated regular-season games in NFL history from a betting perspective. (Check out dozens of Tom Brady props at Draft Kings, including DFS specials.)

See also Deeg’s Sunday Night prop picks with Antonio Brown and others featured in his Anytime TD predictions.

Bucs Patriots Odds: Pats +7, Total 49.5 at Fanduel | Matchup Report 


Brady is Brady and he’s coming off a loss, which is not ideal for his opponent. Great quarterbacks know how to bounce back, and Tom should be particularly inspired for this one.

Plus, he’s facing a rookie quarterback who crapped the bed in an ugly Week 3 performance from the entire New England team, and the Patriots defense simply isn’t as strong as it used to be.


Maybe the time has come for Belichick to finally lose three consecutive home games, but it’s hard to imagine his team not putting up a hell of a fight in a crucial game at Gillette Stadium.

The Pats still have the league’s No. 8 defense in terms of DVOA, and while both teams have a few tough injuries, Tampa Bay is in particularly rough shape with corners Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean hurt in the secondary and pass-catchers Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson all dealing with injuries on offense.


The Buccaneers didn’t just lose to the Rams last week, but they laid a bit of an egg in a 10-point defeat. Belichick undoubtedly learned from that tape, and he knows Brady better than any football player in the world. His Patriots will challenge the Bucs hard at home, covering at the very least.

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