The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be running into one of the hottest defenses in the league on Sunday. The New Orleans Saints defense is currently sitting at third in DVOA according to Football Outsiders, and more importantly, they are sixth in pass defense DVOA.
This is not a defense Tom Brady can light up through the air.
Even if you want to try and run against this team, the Saints have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the league. The Saints will head into this game 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog (22-6-2 ATS past 30). At only 4.5 point underdogs according to FanDuel, there is tremendous value on the Saints’ spread.
Tampa Bay New Orleans Prediction: Saints +4.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report
Why the Buccaneers can cover
The Buccaneers destroyed the Chicago Bears last week. They won 38-3 and were leading the Bears by at least 30 points the entirety of the second half. Tom Brady had four touchdown passes by halftime, while the Bears have only three touchdown passes the entire season.
The Buccaneers’ defense has been consistent all season. They are seventh in EPA per play and had the top EPA per play defensive performance last week.
The Saints’ offense under Jameis Winston this year has been very mediocre. They are 20th in offensive DVOA according to Football Outsiders and are 27th in yards per play. The Buccaneers have also won 14 of their last 15 games.
Why the Saints can cover
The Saints have to be one of the quietest 4-2 teams in NFL history. Nobody is talking about them. If they win on Sunday, they will only be a half-game back of the Buccaneers for first place in the NFC South.
The Saints’ defense is the perfect defense to attack this Bucs offense. They love to disguise their looks and cause confusion for the quarterback. On the Monday Night Football broadcast last week, Brady said disguise is the one thing that defenses should do against him.
Coming off a bye week, this Saints team is starting to get healthy. Two of Brady’s four worst games in EPA per play were against the Saints.
Tampa Bay New Orleans Prediction
This is my favorite pick of the week. Give me the Saints +4.5 at home, coming off a bye.
Bucs Saints Props
Leonard Fournette UNDER 54.5 Rushing Yards
The Saints have the third-ranked run defense in the NFL.
Alvin Kamara UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
I am taking the under on both starting running backs. The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards all season.
Chris Godwin OVER 5.5 Receptions
Marshawn Lattimore will follow around Mike Evans, opening the door for Godwin to have a big game.
Tampa Bay New Orleans Betting Trends
Saints are 17-1 SU in their last 18 games played in October (22-6 ATS past 28)
Bucs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games.
Bucs are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games at New Orleans
OVER is 11-2 Tampa Bay’s last 13 divisional games
Bucs are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games played in October.
Bucs are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games played in week 8.
Saints have played 6 straight divisional UNDERs
Saints are 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games when playing as the underdog (22-6-2 ATS past 30)