Dec 4, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) calls out the play against the Miami Dolphins during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Buccaneers 49ers Pick, UNDER trends galore

We looked long and hard for an OVER trend in Tampa Bay’s Week 14 visit to San Francisco and couldn’t find one. So, despite a miniscule total of 37 points, a sluggish Bucs offense meeting the 49ers third-string QB has oddsmakers pushing this number lower.

Normally, a Tom Brady vs Brock Purdy matchup would not see Brady as an underdog, but San Francisco’s defense rates among the league’s best and the 49er offense has plenty of playmakers which takes the pressure off Purdy.

Despite Tampa’s weak season, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.

Buccaneers 49ers Pick: Odds SF -3.5, Total 37 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Bucs can cover the spread

Again this is Brady vs Purdy, so QB play can swing this result. And the Bucs have covered when catching points.

Tampa rallied late to win at New Orleans, which proved again they can win close games. But the Saints defense is not the 49er defense. At some point, the Bucs playmakers will start making plays…. Won’t they?

Why the 49ers can cover the spread

Historically, the 49ers beat the Bucs here (8-2 SU past 10) and they have been a great bet in games vs NFC foes (11-2 ATS past 13). They usually win and cover at home and they can protect Purdy here with heavy doses of Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel.

The 49ers can win a blowout here and that OVER 37 is awful tempting, in spite of all the UNDER trends in play.

Bucs 49ers Pick

The 49er defense will stifle what’s left of the Bucs offense while the offense has enough firepower to score into the 20s. We like the OVER 37 here and also see SF covering a small home spread.

Tampa San Francisco Anytime TD Props

George Kittle +270 – We expect McCaffrey and Samuel to chew up a lot of yardage on the ground, which opens up red-zone opportunities to the pass. Kittle will grab a TD catch here.

Mike Evans +220 – The 49ers rank bottom third in pass defense over the past 3 weeks and the big WR is the best bet to abuse the secondary here today.

Bucs 49ers Betting Trends

49ers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games

UNDER is 14-2 Tampa Bay’s last 16 conference games

UNDER is 10-2 Tampa Bay’s last 12 games

Bucs are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games

UNDER is 14-6 past 20 meetings

UNDER is 10-3 Tampa Bay’s last 13 road games

Bucs are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at San Francisco

Bucs have covered 5 straight as underdogs

49ers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games

49ers are 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

UNDER is 8-1 San Francisco’s last 9 games played in Week 14.

UNDER is 11-3 San Francisco’s last 14 games as the favorite.

Bet TB SF!!

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