Five teams seem like locks for bettors looking to turn a profit on season win totals in 2021. We pick three UNDERs and two OVERs as our top preseason NFL team win total prop bets.
Check out the win totals for very team at FanDuel and read on for Deeg’s Top 5 best picks.
Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 6.5
Even when Joe Burrow was starting from Weeks 1-11, the Bengals offense ranked 26th in EPA per play. Burrow is now coming off a torn ACL, and from all accounts, has struggled in training camp adapting to his injury.
The Bengals signed Riley Reiff to fix their offensive line, and he is a below-average starter. Jackson Carmen fills in at right guard, and he has yet to start an NFL game. According to Football Outsiders, the Bengals’ offensive line finished 31st in run blocking, and they did little to nothing to fix it.
The Bengals will be relying heavily on Ja’Marr Chase, who has also struggled in the preseason. The only guaranteed wins on the schedule I see for the Bengals are against the Lions and Jaguars.
Green Bay Packers OVER 10.5
The Packers’ offense finished 1st in offensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders last season. There are zero reasons to believe that they won’t be a Top 5 offense again. The Packers’ defense has the potential to take a step forward this year.
Jhaire Alexander and Darnell Savage Jr. are a year older and just entering their prime. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry will implement a scheme to get the most out of his players. The Packers have the potential to have a Top 10 offense and defense. They have a more challenging schedule this year, but hitting 11 wins shouldn’t be a problem for this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 6.5
Since 2011, the Jaguars have won more than 6.5 games just once. Adding Trevor Lawrence isn’t going to fix all their issues. From top to bottom, you can make the argument that the Jaguars have the worst roster in the NFL.
Lawrence should be able to keep this offense around the 20th ranked offense. But the Jaguars’ defense finished 31st in efficiency according to Football Outsiders and made no severe upgrades to suggest they will take a step forward. It’s going to be another rough year in Jacksonville.
Los Angeles Chargers OVER 9.5
The Chargers had the fourth-worst injury luck on defense last season, according to Football Outsiders. Derwin James did not play a game, and Joey Bosa only played 53% of the snaps. They will both be back and healthy for the season opener.
The Chargers’ offense added Rashawn Slater and Corey Linsley, solidifying their biggest weakness on the roster. With Justin Herbert heading into his second season, the Chargers will be a fun team to follow. I have the Chargers making the AFC Championship game.
Steelers UNDER 8.5
The Steelers lost five of their last six games last season, including a loss to the Cleveland Browns in the wildcard game. The Steelers got worse this offseason. They lost Bud Dupree on defense, who was a massive factor in T.J Watt’s 2020 season.
Najee Harris brings juice to the run game, but the Steelers’ offensive line finished dead last in run blocking last season, according to Football Outsiders. The Steelers have yet to win a playoff game since 2016, and this is the season everything falls apart.