Nov 13, 2022; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates with Aaron Jones (33) after he scored a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers/Appleton Post-Crescent-USA TODAY NETWORK

Titans Packers Pick, Green Bay cover?

The Tennessee Titans have covered seven straight games and look for an eighth in visiting Green Bay in the Week 11 Thursday Nighter.

But are they arriving in slumping Green Bay at just the wrong time, after the Packers ripped off nearly 250 rushing yards against Dallas and finally found a deep threat for Aaron Rodgers?

Neither team does well in Week 11, the Titans have been solid as dogs while the Packers have been terrible as chalk. It’s a critical game for Green Bay, but ‘must-win’ games do not always mean ‘will win’ or ‘will cover.’

Titans Packers Pick: Odds GB -2.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Stats

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Why the Titans can cover the spread

After training Denver early, the Titan defense slammed the door in Week 10 while the offense was able to creep along in a 17-10 win. After watching Tony Pollard scoot for 115 yards in the Dallas loss at Lambeau, they are probably licking their chops over the numbers Derrick Henry can put up.

The spread is small and achievable and Tennessee usually covers as an underdog (9-3 ATS past 12 times) while the Packers have been bleeding money when laying points (2-9 ATS past 11 times). Green Bay has also lost five straight Week 11 contests, who knows why ….

Why the Packers can cover the spread

Green Bay saved their season in rallying past Dallas, but the fact remains they were down 28-14 at home and nearly lost a sixth straight game. Rodgers’ body language was very different and the sudden emergence of Christian Watson may change everything for Green Bay, who managed nearly 250 rushing yards against a stout Dallas run stop.

Green Bay is usually ready on short weeks, as their 6-1-1 ATS on the past 8 Thursdays indicates. And the Titans have weirdly lost 9 of their last 10 in Week 11.

Titans Packers Pick

Think the Packers sudden rushing success and its sudden deep threat success might be related? Of course, it is. And with Rodgers feeling frisky and in prime time, we would be surprised to see the Packers fail here at home unless they stop handing the ball to Aaron Jones. We love them -2.5, we like them if the line moves to -3.

Packers Titans Anytime TD Props

Christian Watson +250

Watson had three touchdowns last week and played 84% of the snaps. Getting him at +250 is excellent value.

Derrick Henry 2+ +390

Henry has scored two touchdowns in a game twice in his last three matchups.

Titans Packers Betting Trends

UNDER is 12-3 Tennessee’s last 15 games

Packers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite.

Titans have covered 7 straight

Titans are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games played in Week 11.

Packers have lost 5 straight Week 11 games

Titans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as the underdog.

Packers are 6-1-1 ATS, 6-2 SU in their last 8 games played on a Thursday.

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