Titans Chiefs Pick, Tennessee Covers

The Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs might both be 5-2 this season, but the Chiefs are a top-five DVOA team, while the Titans rank in the bottom half of the league in that critical advanced metric.

Tennessee has actually been outscored this season, while Kansas City has the league’s highest-scoring offense. That might explain why the Chiefs are a heavy home favorite. And the Titans have not bitten very hard as a big dog over the years, losing 8 of 9 in this role and covering the spread just twice in those nine games.

With K.C. favored by 12.5 points, let’s look at both sides of this Week 9 Sunday Night clash.

Titans Chiefs Pick: Odds KC -12.5, Total 45 | Matchup Stats

WHY THE TITANS WILL COVER

That’s still a huge number considering that the Titans are a consistently competitive, winning team with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. They’ve suffered just one double-digit-point loss dating back to last November.

Trend Dummy points out, in his Week 9 NFL betting trends piece, that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their past eight visits to KC and 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings overall.

WHY THE CHIEFS WILL COVER

Derrick Henry is nursing a foot injury and blowout-happy K.C. has had two weeks to prepare for this home matchup in prime time. It’s not a good recipe for the Titans.

KC is 7-1 SU the past eight seasons following their bye week. There is a risk that KC is understandably distracted by the news this week around Coach Andy Reid’s son.

TITANS CHIEFS PICK

Mike Vrabel’s a great coach and his team has always been resilient. They’ll at least keep this close and cover their sixth straight game this season. Factor in a potential backdoor job and I’m on the Titans.

Chiefs Titans TD Prop Picks

Robert Woods +370 at FanDuel

Travis Kelce to score twice +430 at FanDuel

Chiefs Titans Betting Trends

Titans have covered 5 straight

Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Tennessee.

Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games at Kansas City.

Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.

Titans 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 as double-digit dog