Oct 1, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) avoids tackle by Washington Commanders linebacker Jamin Davis (52) in overtime at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Washington Philadelphia Pick, Eagles Cover TNF

This line is like stealing, watch it climb Wednesday and Thursday.

True Washington has been a great story and they are 7-3 but scratch a little under the surface of recent games. Barely beat the terrible Giants, Hail Mary’ed the terrible Bears and lost to the Steelers. And they are catching just 3.5 points against a very good Eagles team that is anxious to make a statement here and put themselves clear atop the division.

The Commanders usually lose as dogs and are 3-11 SU past 14 vs Philly, which plays well on short weeks (8-1 SU). This could be a major blowout and the easiest money in Week 11.

Washington Philadelphia Pick: Odds PHI -3.5, Total 48.5 | Matchup Report

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Why the Commanders can cover the spread

They are 7-1-1 ATS their past 9 games and present a fresh challenge for the Eagles defense in Jayden Daniels mobility. The offense played much better Sunday vs the Steelers and that bodes well against a Philly defense which has been excellent of late.

While we pointed to the Commanders recent quality of play, the same can be said of the Eagles who beat the banged-up Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants among others. So maybe they are just feasting on inferior competition and don’t deserve a bigger number here.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Washington doesn’t stop the run in road games and that is bad news in Philly. It’s also bad news for a rookie QB – even a talented one – to handle defensive schemes of a master like Vic Fangio.

Philly usually gets the job done on short weeks, winning 8 of 9 Thursdays and playing at home is one of the biggest home-field advantages in the NFL.

Washington Philadelphia Pick

We like what the Commanders have done but see things unravelling a bit as the going gets tough in their surprise season. This is a bad spot to need a win to stop the backwards slide and we truly see the Eagles as the second-best team in the NFC right now and they will take charge of the division with an easy win here.

Philadelphia Washington Betting Trends

Commanders are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.

OVER is 9-2 Washington’s last 11 games as the underdog.

Commanders are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games, 7-2 SU

OVER is 11-4 Washington’s last 15 games on the road including last 6

OVER is 8-2 past 10 meetings in Philly

OVER is 15-6 Washington’s last 21 games played on a Thursday.

Eagles are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games against Washington.

OVER is 21-8 Philadelphia’s last 29 games at home.

Eagles are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games played on a Thursday.

UNDER is 14-3 Philadelphia’s last 17 games played in Week 11.

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