Dec 22, 2024; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) runs the ball against Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter (98) during the first quarter at Northwest Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter Casey-Imagn Images

Commanders Eagles Betting Picks, NFC Championship OVER?

Washington has been playing great and winning on the road, while Philadelphia has not been playing great and winning at home.

Can the favored Eagles continue advancing while sputtering on offense? Can the underdog Commanders keep defying the odds and winning in the playoffs?

History suggests teams who dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball should win and that would mean the deep and physical Eagles should prevail here, But can they cover 5.5 points? Is the UNDER (at 20-4 the past 24 Eagles games in January) a better play?

Commanders Eagles Betting Picks: Odds PHI -5.5, Total 48 | Matchup Report

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Why the Commanders can cover the spread

Jayden Daniels keep doing it, excelling as a rookie on the biggest stage against the best teams. They have won 5 of 6 road games and 11 of 13 conference games recently, so it’s entirely possible they can spring the SU upset here, just like they did in Tampa and Detroit.

The Eagles are just 3-7 ATS as home playoff chalk in recent years and clearly have trouble with Washington, even before this season. Some teams you just can’t shake and the Commanders have won as dogs against the Eagles the past few seasons.

QB Jalen Hurts has a sore knee. Their prized rookie CB Quinyon Mitchell has a sore shoulder. More reasons for Washington bettors to believe.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Their 3rd-rated home run game faces the 3rd-worst road run stop. That stat alone, if repeated here, should produce enough offense and grind enough clock to see the Eagles victorious. And Saquon Barkley looks like a man on a mission, busting huge plays with ease.

Hurts will play, although the knee is an issue. In theory, it could produce more passing and less RPO movement from him. That could be a good thing for a passing game that has stunk it up in recent weeks.

Despite injuries and erratic play, they have won 14 of 15 games and covered 8 of 11. Within sniffing distance of the Super Bowl, a veteran squad should be able to take care of business against the up-and-coming Commanders.

Commanders Eagles Betting Picks

Washington has scored more than 30 points against Philly in four of the past five meetings, so clearly they have a knack against their division rivals. And Philly’s offense – especially the passing game – is ready to match the defense’s contributions. This should be a high-scoring game. Say 28-23 type of thing? We play OVER.

Commanders Eagles Betting Trends

Commanders are 11-2 SU in their last 13 conference games

Commanders are 5-1 SU past 6 road games

OVER is 8-3 past 11 meetings

Eagles 14-1 SU past 15 games

Eagles are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games against Washington.

Eagles 8-3 ATS past 11 games

Eagles 3-7 ATS past 10 playoff games as favorites

Eagles won 9 straight and 19-4 SU in their last 23 games at home.

UNDER is 20-4 Philadelphia’s last 24 games played in January.

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