Jan 13, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Detailed view of the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship logo on the field at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Week 1 Trends

NFL betting trends - Steelers SU, Fade Bears?

Seven home underdogs, two road favorites of a TD or more and the biggest road chalk number for the Colts since 2014. Week 1 NFL betting trends have plenty to offer as we start wagering on the strangest of seasons.

Alert: The line has moved in favor of Atlanta, making the Seahawks slight road underdogs. Seattle is 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 September road games as an underdog!

Philadelphia and Indianapolis bettors will need to lay 7 points on the road, which is no fun. The defending champions face a tough number on Thursday night at home to Houston and Cleveland is in tough looking for just its second Week 1 victory in 22 seasons…

(All numbers were opening lines from late August at BetRivers Sportsbook, home of a 100% signup bonus to $250).

Houston +9.5 at Kansas City OU 54

The Chiefs have been money makers with a 9-0 ATS run 16-6 ATS in their past 22 games against AFC foes and that run has proven dominant for several years (24-9 ATS mark.)

If you believe in ‘day of week’ trends, fade the Texans who are just 2-8 ATS on Thursdays. The Chiefs have also won 11 straight games in September meaning they haven’t lost since Sept. 18 2016 (at the Texans by the way).

Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota 46

The UNDER has some support here based on Week 1 and head-to-head trends between the Packers and Vikings. There is also the small ATS road win angle for Green Bay as a Week 1 road team.

Green Bay won and covered past three Week 1 games as the visitor

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 meetings including six in a row here

UNDER is 15-6 past 21 Vikings divisional games

Miami +6 at New England OU 43

The Dolphins never win on the road and never beat the Patriots in New England. So why just the modest 6-point spread? There is plenty of uncertainty in Foxboro and the Dolphins have been tough as an underdog lately.

Dolphins 3-18 SU past 21 road games overall

Dolphins 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at New England.

Dolphins 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog

Pats 10-1 SU past 11 at home to Dolphins

Bears +3 at Detroit OU 43.5

What do you do when two teams are on terrible ATS streaks? Bet the home team? Bet the better team? Fade the team that has lost six straight season openers (Bears)? Maybe follow the impressive Detroit Week 1 OVER angle? Good luck figuring that one out.

Bears 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games

Lions 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

Lions 1-10 SU past 11 divisional games

Lions 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Lions played nine straight Week 1 OVERs, 12 of 13 and 17 of 23

Bears have lost six straight Week 1 games

Seattle -1.5 at Atlanta OU 49

If Seattle were the road dog here, we would fade them and their terrible September road dog streak). Alert: This has now happened as of Sunday morning, Seahawks inexplicably 1-10-1 ATS past 12 as September road dogs. But they are slight chalk. The Falcons have failed to cover the past four openers. However, in the four openers when they were underdogs, they covered each time.

Atlanta 0-4 ATS past four season openers

Falcons 4-0 ATS as Week 1 underdogs

Falcons 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog

Philly -7 at Washington OU 43

Most trends point to the Eagles covering here, regardless of the 7-point road number. Who knows what is happening in Washington, and that makes people nervous.

Eagles have won six straight vs Washington, 5-1 ATS.

Eagles 16-4 SU in their last 20 vs divisional foes

Eagles 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Eagles 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 1.

Wash 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Wash 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional foes, lost 10 in a row SU

Wash 3-18 SU in their last 21 as underdog

Indianapolis -7.5 at Jacksonville OU 45

It’s the biggest road spread seen by Indy since 2014 and the  biggest home dog spread seen by the Jags since 2014. The Colts have been a Week 1 betting disaster (1-10-1 ATS) while the Jags have been a betting disaster as home dogs of 6 or more (1-11 ATS past 12).

Indianapolis 1-10-1 ATS past 12 season openers

Colts 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs Jacksonville

Colts 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs AFC South foes

Biggest road fave number for Colts since Dec. 28 2014 at Tennessee.

Biggest home dog since 2014 for the Jags.

Jags lost 12 straight, 1-11 ATS when home dog of 6 or more since 2011

Colts 8-2 ATS since 2007 when road chalk of 6 or more points

Cleveland +7.5 at Baltimore OU 48.5

The Ravens were also favored by a TD or more the past two seasons in Week 1 and they won 59-10 and 47-3. Just in case you thought they might be slow starters. Meanwhile Cleveland – since rebooting the franchise in 1999 – has played 21 Week 1 games. And won just once (1-19-1 SU) and the ATS is terrible as well at 5-16 ATS.

Ravens 9-3 ATS past 12 season openers

Browns 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Browns 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at Baltimore, but just 2-8 SU

Ravens 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

Ravens 7-1 ATS in their last 8 divisional games

NY Jets +6.5 at Buffalo OU 39.5

There isn’t much positive data to support a Jets wager here. But that requires you to trust the Bills as home favorites.

Buffalo – UNDER is 6-1 past 7 season openers

Bills 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in Week 1.

Jets 4-17 SU in their last 21 road games

Jets 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games

Jets 3-8 ATS in their last 11 September games

Bills 16-5 SU in their last 21 as favorites

Vegas -2.5 at Carolina 47.5 OU

Small road number for the Raiders and the Panthers have been toothless as underdogs.

Panthers 0-7 SU in their last 7 as underdog

LA Chargers -3 at Cincinnati OU 44

Chargers 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games

Chargers 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs Cincinnati.

Bengals 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

Bengals 2-18 SU in their last 20 as underdog

Tennessee +1.5 at Denver OU 41

If you trust Monday Night Football trends, bet the Titans immediately because the Broncos are terrible on MNF.

Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Monday.

Broncos 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

Titans lost six in a row – 1-5 ATS – at Denver

Broncos are 7-1 SU in their last 8 Week 1 games.

Arizona +7 at San Francisco OU 47

This is the biggest dog spread in Week 1 for the Cardinals since 2004. And with the trend on Super Bowl losers usually losing in Week 1 of the following season still in vogue, this is a live dog bet. Arizona has improved and start Year 2 of the Kyler Murray Era to see if they can make some early divisional noise. Still their early-season losing streaks and shitty performance within the division are concerns.

49ers played six straight Week 1 UNDERs

Cards 3-9 SU in their last 12 divisional games

Cards 1-10-1 SU in their last 12 games played in September.

Tampa Bay +3.5 at New Orleans OU 49.5

Lots of variables on both sides, along with ancient QBs on both sides. Maybe the OVER looks safer than the side bet (especially if you are a Saints backer nervous of their Week 1 slump).

Saints 1-9 ATS past 10 season openers

Bucs OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 14 games.

Bucs OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay’s last 20 road games.

Bucs OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 divisional games

Saints OVER in 10 of New Orleans’ last 12 Week 1 games

Pittsburgh -4.5 at NY Giants OU 47.5

The Steelers have won nine straight Monday Nighters but there are lots of fade trends for both teams here.

Giants 1-7-1 ATS past 9 games overall

Giants 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.

Giants 3-18 SU in their last 21 as underdog

Steelers 1-7-1 ATS past 9 overall

Steelers UNDER in 17-6 past 23 games.

Steelers 9-0 SU in their last 9 MNF games.

Dallas -2.5 at LA Rams OU 51.5

The Rams have been lame underdogs (3-16 SU past 19 times in this spot) but some folks love to bet early-season home underdogs. Dallas is better on paper but of course that is not where the game gets played.

Cowboys OVER in 15 of Dallas’ last 21 games against an opponent in the NFC

Rams 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against an opponent in the NFC

Rams 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in September.

Rams 3-16 SU in their last 19 games when playing as the underdog.

Check out the sportsbook review pages here to find the best NFL betting shop in your state. Good luck with y our Week 1 wagers!

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.
Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.