Week 1 NFL Trends

Season openers are full of surprises and full of handicapping danger. The start of the 2021 season will be no different, with a few blowouts and a few wild upsets shaking up the Super Bowl 56 future odds right away.

Week 1 NFL betting trends are also tricky to identify. New coaches and new players. Do ‘trends’ from season openers past still apply? Our database diving shows we should not mess with Seattle as a home underdog, although maybe that trend will fall apart with Russell Wilson gone.

Pay attention to the fact Super Bowl winners are now 18-4 SU in Week 1 the following season, so perhaps a ML wager on the Rams as underdogs to Buffalo is a safe one?

The Colts have been a wallet drainer in season openers, covering just once in the past 14 seasons (1-12-1 ATS). They lay 8 points in Houston and beware Indy as big road dogs – two of the last three times in this situation, they lost outright!

The Bears have been terrible as underdogs, the Cardinals have been terrible at home and the Broncos almost never cover on Monday Nights.

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Buffalo at LA Rams +2.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Stats

Teams have met 10 times since 1983, 9 games went OVER

Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games

OVER is 19-3 Buffalo’s last 22 games vs NFC West teams

Rams are 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 games in September

Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against LA Rams

Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games

Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in Week 1.

UNDER is 7-3 Buffalo’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.

Bills 11-3 SU past 14 games as road favorite

UNDER is 17-6 LA Rams’ last 23 home games

Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC East teams

Rams won and covered five straight season openers

Rams have been home dogs just twice the past two seasons and won outright both times (34-23 vs TB Sept. 26, 2021 and 20-17 vs Dallas Sept. 13, 2020).

Indianapolis @ Houston +8, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats

UNDER is 10-2 Houston’s last 12 games against Indianapolis.

Texans are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at home.

Colts are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in week 1.

Colts are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in Week 1 including 8 straight SU

Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Houston.

Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Houston

Colts UNDER is 8-1 Indianapolis’ last 9 divisional games

Colts lost 2 of last 3 times they are road favorites of a TD or more since 2020

San Francisco @ Chicago +7, Total 41.5 | Matchup Stats

49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games

49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.

49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games

UNDER in 7 of San Francisco’s last 8 games played in week 1.

49ers 1-5 ATS past 6 times as road favorites of 7 or more since 2012

Bears 0-6 ATS past 6 as home dogs

Bears 3-12 ATS past 15 as underdog

Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games

New England @ Miami -3, Total 47 | Matchup Stats

Dolphins are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games as the favourite.

Patriots are 15-3 SU in their last 18 season openers

Patriots are 2-7 SU, ATS in their last 9 games at Miami.

Dolphins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games at home

Steelers @ Bengals -6.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Stats

Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, including 8 in a row

Bengals are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games at home against Pittsburgh.

Bengals covered 7 straight conference games

Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games

Steelers 18-6-1 ATS since 2000 as road dogs of 6 or more

Kansas City @ Arizona +3.5, Total 54 | Matchup Stats

Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 non-conference games

Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games in September.

Cardinals 4-1 ATS past 5 at home to Chiefs

Chiefs have won SU and played OVER past 7 season openers

Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite

Cardinals just 3-10 ATS past 13 at home, including 0-5 ATS streak

Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog

Tampa Bay @ Dallas +1.5, Total 50 | Matchup Stats

Cowboys are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home against Tampa Bay.

Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games

Bucs are 18-5 SU in their last 23 road games

Bucs are 15-4 SU in their past 19 games as road chalk

Cowboys on 1-5 ATS regular season streak when small home chalk of 1-3 points

Monday Night Football Trends

Denver @ Seattle +6, Total 42 | Matchup Stats

Seahawks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 Monday Night games

Broncos are 3-14 SU in their last 17 Monday road games

Broncos 3-11-1 ATS past 15 MNF games

UNDER is 10-4 past 14 meetings here

Broncos 8-2 SU past 10 season openers

UNDER is 15-5 Denver’s last 20 games as the favorite.

Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games

Seattle has been a September home dog just 4 times since 2010 and won outright every time

Seattle has been home underdog of 6 or more points just three times since 2011 and covered all three

Later this weekend, know that betting OVER in Detroit’s opener has hit 13 of the last 14 seasons and betting against the Colts in Week 1 is a safe bet as they are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 openers.

The Cowboys have been a nice moneyline play as a regular-season road underdog of seven points or more. Since 2009, they have been in this situation tonight at Tampa Bay nine times and won outright 6 times! The OVER has prevailed 7 of the past 8 times for Dallas in this situation, which means the trends point to DOG and OVER.

The rest of Week 1 sees some loser franchises try to beak loser trends and some classic early battles. Check it out, the odds are as of Thursday at Draft Kings and FanDuel, the two top new sponsors here at NFP.

Dallas at Tampa Bay -6, Total 52 at DraftKings | Matchup Report

UNDER is 11-2 Tampa Bay’s last 13 games against Dallas

Cowboys are 7-1 SU past 8 vs Bucs

Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road

Cowboys are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Thursday.

Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog

Bucs won eight straight SU

OVER is 19-6 Tampa Bay’s last 25 games against NFC foes

OVER is 9-3 Tampa Bay’s last 12 games played in September

Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.

Arizona @ Tennessee -3, Total 52 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

Arizona 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tennessee.

Arizona played six straight road UNDERs and 8-3 past 11

The total has gone OVER in 22 of Tennessee’s last 30 games

OVER is 15-6 Tennessee’s last 21 games at home.

Arizona was road dog 4 times last season, all went UNDER

Jacksonville @ Houston +3, Total 44.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

First time Jags are road favorites since Oct. 20, 2019 at Cincinnati.

Jags have lost 9 straight road games

Houston is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games as the underdog.

Houston is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games against Jacksonville.

Jacksonville is 0-15 SU run

Jacksonville is 0-11 SU in their last 11 games vs AFC foes.

Jags are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in September

Jags are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games played in Week 1.

Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in September.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta -3.5, Total 48 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Eagles have lost and failed to cover past 6 road games, but they usually win in Week 1 (10-3 SU past 13 seasons.)

Eagles are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played in September.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 15 games against Atlanta.

UNDER is 7-1 Philadelphia’s last 8 games at Atlanta

Eagles are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 1.

Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 1.

Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite.

Pittsburgh @ Buffalo -6.5, Total 48 at FanDuel | Matchup Report

A key AFC matchup where the Steelers own strong trends against the Bills and as a road underdog, while the Bills own trends in Week 1 and past 11 games (9-2 ATS).

Bills are 20-2 SU in their last 22 games as the favorite.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games against AFC East.

Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against Buffalo.

UNDER is 14-6 Pittsburgh’s last 20 road games.

Steelers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 1.

Steelers 11-3 ATS past 14 as road underdog

Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog

Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

Bills 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games played in Week 1.

Steelers covered past 4 times as road dog of 6 or more points

Minnesota @ Cincinnati +3, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report

Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.

Vikings are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at Cincy

Vikings have failed 5 straight games as favorites and 4-11 ATS in their last 15

Vikings are 12-2-1 SU past 15 games as road favorites dating to 2016

San Francisco @ Detroit +7.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

This is just the fourth time since 2014 that the Niners are road chalk of a TD or more. They won all three, but covered just once in that time. Meanwhile the Lions have been big home dogs eight times the past three seasons and won just once.

OVER is 13-1 Detroit’s last 14 games played in Week 1.

Lions are 1-11 SU in their last 12 home games.

San Francisco is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Detroit.

49ers have failed 5 straight games to cover as favorite and 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games when playing as the favorite

Seattle @ Indianapolis +3, Total 48.5 | Draft Kings | Matchup Report

Colts are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 1.

Colts lost 7 straight SU as underdogs

Seattle failed to cover last 5 times as road chalk last season. Colts have lost 5 straight ATS as home dogs.

LA Chargers @ Washington -1.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

OVER is 10-2 LA Chargers’ last 12 road games.

Washington is 4-17 SU in their last 21 games at home.

NY Jets @ Carolina -4.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report

Jets are 5-24 SU in their last 29 games on the road including 4-11 ATS past 15

Jets are 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played in September.

Panthers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home

Denver @ New York Giants +3, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report 

Broncos are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games played in September.

Denver hasn’t been a road favorite since Week 1 of 2019

Giants are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 1

Giants 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog

Cleveland @ Kansas City -5.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report

Historically, Super Bowl losers fail to cover in Week 1 the following season, although this trend has swung back in recent years (not last year when the 49ers lost).

Browns are 1-20-1 SU in their last 22 games played in week 1.

Chiefs 14-0 SU in their last 14 games played in September, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22

Browns 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Kansas City.

Chicago @ LA Rams -7.5, Total 47 | Matchup Report

Rams have played UNDER in 8 straight home games

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Rams’ last 11 games when playing as the favorite (and 19 of 23)

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Rams’ last 13 games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.

Chicago is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in September.

Rams are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 1.

Baltimore @ Las Vegas +4, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report

Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.

OVER is 13-3 in Las Vegas’ last 16 games

Ravens are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.

Ravens are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against an opponent in the AFC

Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in week 1.

Ravens are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Monday.

Ravens have covered 6 straight as favorites

Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Monday.

More to come for Week 1 NFL betting trends….

Archived article Sept. 13, 2020 by Trend Dummy

Seven home underdogs, two road favorites of a TD or more and the biggest road chalk number for the Colts since 2014. Week 1 NFL betting trends have plenty to offer as we start wagering on the strangest of seasons.

Alert: The line has moved in favor of Atlanta, making the Seahawks slight road underdogs. Seattle is 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 September road games as an underdog!

Philadelphia and Indianapolis bettors will need to lay 7 points on the road, which is no fun. The defending champions face a tough number on Thursday night at home to Houston and Cleveland is in tough looking for just its second Week 1 victory in 22 seasons…

(All numbers were opening lines from late August at FanDuel Sportsbook, home of a 100% free bet signup bonus).

Houston +9.5 at Kansas City OU 54

The Chiefs have been money makers with a 9-0 ATS run 16-6 ATS in their past 22 games against AFC foes and that run has proven dominant for several years (24-9 ATS mark.)

If you believe in ‘day of week’ trends, fade the Texans who are just 2-8 ATS on Thursdays. The Chiefs have also won 11 straight games in September meaning they haven’t lost since Sept. 18 2016 (at the Texans by the way).

Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota 46

The UNDER has some support here based on Week 1 and head-to-head trends between the Packers and Vikings. There is also the small ATS road win angle for Green Bay as a Week 1 road team.

Green Bay won and covered past three Week 1 games as the visitor

UNDER is 9-2 past 11 meetings including six in a row here

UNDER is 15-6 past 21 Vikings divisional games

The Dolphins never win on the road and never beat the Patriots in New England. So why just the modest 6-point spread? There is plenty of uncertainty in Foxboro and the Dolphins have been tough as an underdog lately.

Dolphins 3-18 SU past 21 road games overall

Dolphins 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games at New England.

Dolphins 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when playing as the underdog

Pats 10-1 SU past 11 at home to Dolphins

Bears +3 at Detroit OU 43.5

What do you do when two teams are on terrible ATS streaks? Bet the home team? Bet the better team? Fade the team that has lost six straight season openers (Bears)? Maybe follow the impressive Detroit Week 1 OVER angle? Good luck figuring that one out.

Bears 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games

Lions 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.

Lions 1-10 SU past 11 divisional games

Lions 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Lions played nine straight Week 1 OVERs, 12 of 13 and 17 of 23

Bears have lost six straight Week 1 games

Seattle -1.5 at Atlanta OU 49

If Seattle were the road dog here, we would fade them and their terrible September road dog streak). Alert: This has now happened as of Sunday morning, Seahawks inexplicably 1-10-1 ATS past 12 as September road dogs. But they are slight chalk. The Falcons have failed to cover the past four openers. However, in the four openers when they were underdogs, they covered each time.

Atlanta 0-4 ATS past four season openers

Falcons 4-0 ATS as Week 1 underdogs

Falcons 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing as the underdog

Philly -7 at Washington OU 43

Most trends point to the Eagles covering here, regardless of the 7-point road number. Who knows what is happening in Washington, and that makes people nervous.

Eagles have won six straight vs Washington, 5-1 ATS.

Eagles 16-4 SU in their last 20 vs divisional foes

Eagles 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.

Eagles 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 1.

Wash 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games at home.

Wash 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs divisional foes, lost 10 in a row SU

Wash 3-18 SU in their last 21 as underdog

Indianapolis -7.5 at Jacksonville OU 45

It’s the biggest road spread seen by Indy since 2014 and the  biggest home dog spread seen by the Jags since 2014. The Colts have been a Week 1 betting disaster (1-10-1 ATS) while the Jags have been a betting disaster as home dogs of 6 or more (1-11 ATS past 12).

Indianapolis 1-10-1 ATS past 12 season openers

Colts 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs Jacksonville

Colts 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs AFC South foes

Biggest road fave number for Colts since Dec. 28 2014 at Tennessee.

Biggest home dog since 2014 for the Jags.

Jags lost 12 straight, 1-11 ATS when home dog of 6 or more since 2011

Colts 8-2 ATS since 2007 when road chalk of 6 or more points

The Ravens were also favored by a TD or more the past two seasons in Week 1 and they won 59-10 and 47-3. Just in case you thought they might be slow starters. Meanwhile Cleveland – since rebooting the franchise in 1999 – has played 21 Week 1 games. And won just once (1-19-1 SU) and the ATS is terrible as well at 5-16 ATS.

Ravens 9-3 ATS past 12 season openers

Browns 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.

Browns 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at Baltimore, but just 2-8 SU

Ravens 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.

Ravens 7-1 ATS in their last 8 divisional games

NY Jets +6.5 at Buffalo OU 39.5

There isn’t much positive data to support a Jets wager here. But that requires you to trust the Bills as home favorites.

Buffalo – UNDER is 6-1 past 7 season openers

Bills 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in Week 1.

Jets 4-17 SU in their last 21 road games

Jets 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games

Jets 3-8 ATS in their last 11 September games

Bills 16-5 SU in their last 21 as favorites

Vegas -2.5 at Carolina 47.5 OU

Small road number for the Raiders and the Panthers have been toothless as underdogs.

Panthers 0-7 SU in their last 7 as underdog

LA Chargers -3 at Cincinnati OU 44

Chargers 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games

Chargers 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs Cincinnati.

Bengals 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home.

Bengals 2-18 SU in their last 20 as underdog

Tennessee +1.5 at Denver OU 41

If you trust Monday Night Football trends, bet the Titans immediately because the Broncos are terrible on MNF.

Titans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on a Monday.

Broncos 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games played on a Monday.

Titans lost six in a row – 1-5 ATS – at Denver

Broncos are 7-1 SU in their last 8 Week 1 games.

Arizona +7 at San Francisco OU 47

This is the biggest dog spread in Week 1 for the Cardinals since 2004. And with the trend on Super Bowl losers usually losing in Week 1 of the following season still in vogue, this is a live dog bet. Arizona has improved and start Year 2 of the Kyler Murray Era to see if they can make some early divisional noise. Still their early-season losing streaks and shitty performance within the division are concerns.

49ers played six straight Week 1 UNDERs

Cards 3-9 SU in their last 12 divisional games

Cards 1-10-1 SU in their last 12 games played in September.

Tampa Bay +3.5 at New Orleans OU 49.5

Lots of variables on both sides, along with ancient QBs on both sides. Maybe the OVER looks safer than the side bet (especially if you are a Saints backer nervous of their Week 1 slump).

Saints 1-9 ATS past 10 season openers

Bucs OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 14 games.

Bucs OVER in 15 of Tampa Bay’s last 20 road games.

Bucs OVER in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 divisional games

Saints OVER in 10 of New Orleans’ last 12 Week 1 games

Pittsburgh -4.5 at NY Giants OU 47.5

The Steelers have won nine straight Monday Nighters but there are lots of fade trends for both teams here.

Giants 1-7-1 ATS past 9 games overall

Giants 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.

Giants 3-18 SU in their last 21 as underdog

Steelers 1-7-1 ATS past 9 overall

Steelers UNDER in 17-6 past 23 games.

Steelers 9-0 SU in their last 9 MNF games.

Dallas -2.5 at LA Rams OU 51.5

The Rams have been lame underdogs (3-16 SU past 19 times in this spot) but some folks love to bet early-season home underdogs. Dallas is better on paper but of course that is not where the game gets played.

Cowboys OVER in 15 of Dallas’ last 21 games against an opponent in the NFC

Rams 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against an opponent in the NFC

Rams 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in September.

Rams 3-16 SU in their last 19 games when playing as the underdog.

Check out the sportsbook review pages here to find the best NFL betting shop in your state. Good luck with y our Week 1 wagers!