Season openers are full of surprises and full of handicapping danger. The start of the 2024 season will be no different, with a few blowouts and a few wild upsets shaking up the Super Bowl 59 future odds right away.
Week 1 NFL betting trends are also tricky to identify. New coaches and new players. Do ‘trends’ from season openers past still apply? Our database diving shows we should not mess with Seattle as a home underdog, although maybe that trend will fall apart with Russell Wilson gone.
Pay attention to the fact Super Bowl winners are now 20-4 SU in Week 1 the following season, so perhaps a ML wager on the Chiefs as favorites vs Baltimore is a safe one?
Look at all the OVER streaks! Look at all the UNDER trends! Week 1 NFL betting trends show plenty of profit promise with the Ravens are underdog a terrific bet. And can the 49ers and Eagles (each riding 0-7 ATS streaks into the season) rebound in Week 1 for bettors?
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Baltimore @ Kansas City -3, Total 46.5 | Matchup Report
Chiefs are 18-3 SU past 21 conference games
Chiefs won and covered 6 straight heading into 2024
UNDER is 12-5 Kansas City’s last 17 games
UNDER is 18-4 Kansas City’s last 22 games at home.
UNDER is 15-6 Kansas City’s last 21 games as the favourite
Chiefs 6-1 SU past 7 vs Ravens
Chiefs are 5-1 SU past 6 Thursdays
Chiefs played 5 straight UNDERs vs AFC North teams
Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
Chiefs are 8-1 SU in their last 9 season openers, 8-1 to the OVER
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in Week 1.
Ravens are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games on a Thursday.
Ravens are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games as the underdog.
Green Bay vs Philadelphia -2.5, Total; 49 | Matchup Report
Eagles enter 2024 riding 0-7 ATS streak but have won 6 straight September games SU overall
Eagles are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 1.
Eagles are 30-8 SU in their last 38 games as the favorite.
OVER is 13-3 Green Bay’s last 16 games vs NFC East division.
Packers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 in September.
UNDER is 11-4 past 15 meetings of Eagles and Packers
Packers have covered 5 straight as underdog
Eagles are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games
Eagles have lost 4 of past 5 games as favorites
New England @ Cincinnati -9, Total 40.5 | Matchup Report
Patriots are 20-4 SU in their last 24 games vs AFC North division
UNDER is 10-2 Cincinnati’s last 12 games played in September.
Patriots are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games.
Patriots are 4-12-1 ATS, 13-4 SU in their last 17 games as the underdog
Bengals have played 5 straight OVERs when laying points
Dallas @ Cleveland -2.5, Total 42 | Matchup Report
Browns are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games at home.
Cowboys have not won or covered as an underdog since Oct. 9, 2022 at Rams (0-6 ATS)
Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games played in September
Cowboys are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Sunday road games
OVER is 10-3 Cleveland’s last 13 games.
Browns are 3-21-1 SU in their last 25 Week 1 games.
Browns won and covered all 6 games as home chalk last season
LA Rams @ Detroit -3.5, Total 51 | Matchup Report
OVER is 12-1 Detroit’s last 13 games played in Week 1.
Rams are 6-1 SU and ATS past 7 season openers
Lions are 10-1 SU in their last 11 Sunday home games.
Lions are 23-7 ATS past 30 games
Lions are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 conference games
Rams are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Rams are 16-5 SU, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 in September.
Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
Monday Night Football Trends
New York Jets @ San Francisco -3.5, Total 43.5 | Matchup Report
49ers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home.
Jets are 2-16 SU, 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games played in September.
49ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games
Jets are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games
Jets are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games played on a Monday
49ers have failed to cover 7 straight home games
49ers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games
UNDER is 9-1 past 10 49ers Week 1 games
49ers are 30-10-1 ATS in their last 41 games played on a Monday
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Archived Week 1 NFL betting trends article from Sept. 7, 2023
Detroit @ Kansas City -4.5, Total 53.5 | Matchup Report
Chiefs have won 11 straight SU vs NFC teams, 9-2 ATS
Lions have played 12 straight Week 1 OVERs
Chiefs have played 8 straight Week 1 OVERs
Chiefs are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games
Lions 9-1 ATS past 10 games and 19-7 ATS past 26
Last 8 meetings between these teams have played OVER
Lions are 16-5 to the OVER past 21 September games
Lions have lost 6 straight Thursdays and lost 16 of past 20 Thursdays
Lions have covered 6 in a row as dogs and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games catching points
UNDER is 7-1 past 8 KC home games
San Francisco @ Pittsburgh +2.5, Total 41.5 | Matchup Report
Steelers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
UNDER is 9-3 Pittsburgh’s last 12 games at home.
49ers are 9-2 ATS. 11-0 SU in their last 11 games when playing as the favorite.
49ers are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games.
Past 5 meetings here all played OVER
UNDER is 8-1 past 9 Week 1 games for 49ers
Steelers are 14-5-1 SU in their last 20 games played in Week 1.
Miami @ LA Chargers -3, Total 51 | Matchup Report
UNDER is 11-1 LA Chargers’ last 12 games played in September.
UNDER is 16-2 LA Chargers’ last 18 games against Miami.
UNDER is 9-2 Miami’s last 11 games at LA Chargers.
Dolphins lost 5 straight road games
Dolphins 10-4 ATS in their last 14 conference games
UNDER is 15-6 Miami’s last 21 games played in September.
UNDER is 11-4 Miami’s last 15 games played in Week 1.
Philadelphia @ New England +4, Total 45 | Matchup Report
Patriots are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as the underdog.
Patriots lost 6 straight as home dog, 1-5 ATS
Eagles are 20-3 SU in their last 23 games as the favorite.
Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against New England
Eagles are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games on the road but just 3-9 ATS past 12
Eagles are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games played in Week 1.
Eagles won 9 in a row as road favorite but just 3-6 ATS
Sunday Night Football Trends
Dallas @ NY Giants +2.5, Total 42.5 | Matchup Report
Giants are 2-10 SU, 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in Week 1.
Cowboys are 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS last 12 games against NY Giants.
Cowboys 5-1 ATS past 6 at Giants
UNDER is 15-6 NY Giants’ last 21 games at home.
Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as the underdog.
Monday Night Football Trends
Buffalo @ NY Jets +2.5, Total 45.5 | Matchup Report
Last time Jets were home dog, they upset the Bills 20-17 as 10.5-point dogs Nov. 6 2022
Jets are 1-14 SU, 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played in September.
Jets are 2-16 SU in their last 18 divisional games
Bills are 17-3 SU in their last 20 divisional games
UNDER is 7-1 Buffalo’s last 8 games on the road.
UNDER is 18-7 Buffalo’s last 25 games played in Week 1.
Bills are 4-10 SU in their last 14 Monday Night games
Jets are 3-10 SU in their last 13 Monday Nights
More Week 1 trends coming soon….
Archived article from Sept. 6, 2022
The Colts have been a wallet drainer in season openers, covering just once in the past 14 seasons (1-12-1 ATS). They lay 8 points in Houston and beware Indy as big road dogs – two of the last three times in this situation, they lost outright!
The Bears have been terrible as underdogs, the Cardinals have been terrible at home and the Broncos almost never cover on Monday Nights.
Buffalo at LA Rams +2.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Stats
Teams have met 10 times since 1983, 9 games went OVER
Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games
OVER is 19-3 Buffalo’s last 22 games vs NFC West teams
Rams are 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 games in September
Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against LA Rams
Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games
Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in Week 1.
UNDER is 7-3 Buffalo’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.
Bills 11-3 SU past 14 games as road favorite
UNDER is 17-6 LA Rams’ last 23 home games
Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC East teams
Rams won and covered five straight season openers
Rams have been home dogs just twice the past two seasons and won outright both times (34-23 vs TB Sept. 26, 2021 and 20-17 vs Dallas Sept. 13, 2020).
Indianapolis @ Houston +8, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats
UNDER is 10-2 Houston’s last 12 games against Indianapolis.
Texans are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at home.
Colts are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in week 1.
Colts are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in Week 1 including 8 straight SU
Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Houston.
Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Houston
Colts UNDER is 8-1 Indianapolis’ last 9 divisional games
Colts lost 2 of last 3 times they are road favorites of a TD or more since 2020
San Francisco @ Chicago +7, Total 41.5 | Matchup Stats
49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games
UNDER in 7 of San Francisco’s last 8 games played in week 1.
49ers 1-5 ATS past 6 times as road favorites of 7 or more since 2012
Bears 0-6 ATS past 6 as home dogs
Bears 3-12 ATS past 15 as underdog
Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
New England @ Miami -3, Total 47 | Matchup Stats
Dolphins are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games as the favourite.
Patriots are 15-3 SU in their last 18 season openers
Patriots are 2-7 SU, ATS in their last 9 games at Miami.
Dolphins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games at home
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Stats
Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, including 8 in a row
Bengals are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games at home against Pittsburgh.
Bengals covered 7 straight conference games
Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games
Steelers 18-6-1 ATS since 2000 as road dogs of 6 or more
Kansas City @ Arizona +3.5, Total 54 | Matchup Stats
Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 non-conference games
Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games in September.
Cardinals 4-1 ATS past 5 at home to Chiefs
Chiefs have won SU and played OVER past 7 season openers
Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite
Cardinals just 3-10 ATS past 13 at home, including 0-5 ATS streak
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog
Tampa Bay @ Dallas +1.5, Total 50 | Matchup Stats
Cowboys are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home against Tampa Bay.
Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games
Bucs are 18-5 SU in their last 23 road games
Bucs are 15-4 SU in their past 19 games as road chalk
Cowboys on 1-5 ATS regular season streak when small home chalk of 1-3 points
Monday Night Football Trends
Denver @ Seattle +6, Total 42 | Matchup Stats
Seahawks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 Monday Night games
Broncos are 3-14 SU in their last 17 Monday road games
Broncos 3-11-1 ATS past 15 MNF games
UNDER is 10-4 past 14 meetings here
Broncos 8-2 SU past 10 season openers
UNDER is 15-5 Denver’s last 20 games as the favorite.
Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games
Seattle has been a September home dog just 4 times since 2010 and won outright every time
Seattle has been home underdog of 6 or more points just three times since 2011 and covered all three