Season openers are full of surprises and full of handicapping danger. The start of the 2021 season will be no different, with a few blowouts and a few wild upsets shaking up the Super Bowl 56 future odds right away.
Week 1 NFL betting trends are also tricky to identify. New coaches and new players. Do ‘trends’ from season openers past still apply? Later this weekend, know that betting OVER in Detroit’s opener has hit 13 of the last 14 seasons and betting against the Colts in Week 1 is a safe bet as they are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 openers.
The Cowboys have been a nice moneyline play as a regular-season road underdog of seven points or more. Since 2009, they have been in this situation tonight at Tampa Bay nine times and won outright 6 times! The OVER has prevailed 7 of the past 8 times for Dallas in this situation, which means the trends point to DOG and OVER.
The rest of Week 1 sees some loser franchises try to beak loser trends and some classic early battles. Check it out, the odds are as of Thursday at Draft Kings and FanDuel, the two top new sponsors here at NFP.
Dallas at Tampa Bay -6, Total 52 at DraftKings | Matchup Report
UNDER is 11-2 Tampa Bay’s last 13 games against Dallas
Cowboys are 7-1 SU past 8 vs Bucs
Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on the road
Cowboys are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played on a Thursday.
Cowboys are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games when playing as the underdog
Bucs won eight straight SU
OVER is 19-6 Tampa Bay’s last 25 games against NFC foes
OVER is 9-3 Tampa Bay’s last 12 games played in September
Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Thursday.
Arizona @ Tennessee -3, Total 52 at FanDuel | Matchup Report
Arizona 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Tennessee.
Arizona played six straight road UNDERs and 8-3 past 11
The total has gone OVER in 22 of Tennessee’s last 30 games
OVER is 15-6 Tennessee’s last 21 games at home.
Arizona was road dog 4 times last season, all went UNDER
Jacksonville @ Houston +3, Total 44.5 at FanDuel | Matchup Report
First time Jags are road favorites since Oct. 20, 2019 at Cincinnati.
Jags have lost 9 straight road games
Houston is 1-11 SU in their last 12 games as the underdog.
Houston is 12-2 SU in their last 14 games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 0-15 SU run
Jacksonville is 0-11 SU in their last 11 games vs AFC foes.
Jags are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games played in September
Jags are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games played in Week 1.
Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in September.
Philadelphia @ Atlanta -3.5, Total 48 at Draft Kings | Matchup Report
Eagles have lost and failed to cover past 6 road games, but they usually win in Week 1 (10-3 SU past 13 seasons.)
Eagles are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games played in September.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia’s last 15 games against Atlanta.
UNDER is 7-1 Philadelphia’s last 8 games at Atlanta
Eagles are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 1.
Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in Week 1.
Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite.
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo -6.5, Total 48 at FanDuel | Matchup Report
A key AFC matchup where the Steelers own strong trends against the Bills and as a road underdog, while the Bills own trends in Week 1 and past 11 games (9-2 ATS).
Bills are 20-2 SU in their last 22 games as the favorite.
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games against AFC East.
Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against Buffalo.
UNDER is 14-6 Pittsburgh’s last 20 road games.
Steelers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 1.
Steelers 11-3 ATS past 14 as road underdog
Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as the underdog
Bills are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games.
Bills 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games played in Week 1.
Steelers covered past 4 times as road dog of 6 or more points
Minnesota @ Cincinnati +3, Total 47.5 | Matchup Report
Vikings are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games.
Vikings are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at Cincy
Vikings have failed 5 straight games as favorites and 4-11 ATS in their last 15
Vikings are 12-2-1 SU past 15 games as road favorites dating to 2016
San Francisco @ Detroit +7.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
This is just the fourth time since 2014 that the Niners are road chalk of a TD or more. They won all three, but covered just once in that time. Meanwhile the Lions have been big home dogs eight times the past three seasons and won just once.
OVER is 13-1 Detroit’s last 14 games played in Week 1.
Lions are 1-11 SU in their last 12 home games.
San Francisco is 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against Detroit.
49ers have failed 5 straight games to cover as favorite and 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games when playing as the favorite
Seattle @ Indianapolis +3, Total 48.5 | Draft Kings | Matchup Report
Colts are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games played in Week 1.
Colts lost 7 straight SU as underdogs
Seattle failed to cover last 5 times as road chalk last season. Colts have lost 5 straight ATS as home dogs.
LA Chargers @ Washington -1.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
OVER is 10-2 LA Chargers’ last 12 road games.
Washington is 4-17 SU in their last 21 games at home.
NY Jets @ Carolina -4.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Report
Jets are 5-24 SU in their last 29 games on the road including 4-11 ATS past 15
Jets are 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games played in September.
Panthers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games at home
Denver @ New York Giants +3, Total 41.5 | Matchup ReportÂ
Broncos are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games played in September.
Denver hasn’t been a road favorite since Week 1 of 2019
Giants are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games played in week 1
Giants 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing as the underdog
Cleveland @ Kansas City -5.5, Total 54.5 | Matchup Report
Historically, Super Bowl losers fail to cover in Week 1 the following season, although this trend has swung back in recent years (not last year when the 49ers lost).
Browns are 1-20-1 SU in their last 22 games played in week 1.
Chiefs 14-0 SU in their last 14 games played in September, and 16-6 ATS in their last 22
Browns 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against Kansas City.
Chicago @ LA Rams -7.5, Total 47 | Matchup Report
Rams have played UNDER in 8 straight home games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Rams’ last 11 games when playing as the favorite (and 19 of 23)
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Rams’ last 13 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC West division.
Chicago is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games played in September.
Rams are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in September.
Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in week 1.
Baltimore @ Las Vegas +4, Total 50.5 | Matchup Report
Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
OVER is 13-3 in Las Vegas’ last 16 games
Ravens are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
Ravens are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against an opponent in the AFC
Ravens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played in week 1.
Ravens are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played on a Monday.
Ravens have covered 6 straight as favorites
Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Monday.
More to come for Week 1 NFL betting trends….
Archived article Sept. 13, 2020 by Trend Dummy
Seven home underdogs, two road favorites of a TD or more and the biggest road chalk number for the Colts since 2014. Week 1 NFL betting trends have plenty to offer as we start wagering on the strangest of seasons.
Alert: The line has moved in favor of Atlanta, making the Seahawks slight road underdogs. Seattle is 1-10-1 ATS in their past 12 September road games as an underdog!
Philadelphia and Indianapolis bettors will need to lay 7 points on the road, which is no fun. The defending champions face a tough number on Thursday night at home to Houston and Cleveland is in tough looking for just its second Week 1 victory in 22 seasons…
(All numbers were opening lines from late August at FanDuel Sportsbook, home of a 100% free bet signup bonus).
Houston +9.5 at Kansas City OU 54
The Chiefs have been money makers with a 9-0 ATS run 16-6 ATS in their past 22 games against AFC foes and that run has proven dominant for several years (24-9 ATS mark.)
If you believe in ‘day of week’ trends, fade the Texans who are just 2-8 ATS on Thursdays. The Chiefs have also won 11 straight games in September meaning they haven’t lost since Sept. 18 2016 (at the Texans by the way).
Green Bay +2.5 at Minnesota 46
The UNDER has some support here based on Week 1 and head-to-head trends between the Packers and Vikings. There is also the small ATS road win angle for Green Bay as a Week 1 road team.
Green Bay won and covered past three Week 1 games as the visitor
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 meetings including six in a row here
UNDER is 15-6 past 21 Vikings divisional games
