Season openers are full of surprises and full of handicapping danger. The start of the 2021 season will be no different, with a few blowouts and a few wild upsets shaking up the Super Bowl 56 future odds right away.
Week 1 NFL betting trends are also tricky to identify. New coaches and new players. Do ‘trends’ from season openers past still apply? Our database diving shows we should not mess with Seattle as a home underdog, although maybe that trend will fall apart with Russell Wilson gone.
Pay attention to the fact Super Bowl winners are now 18-4 SU in Week 1 the following season, so perhaps a ML wager on the Rams as underdogs to Buffalo is a safe one?
The Colts have been a wallet drainer in season openers, covering just once in the past 14 seasons (1-12-1 ATS). They lay 8 points in Houston and beware Indy as big road dogs – two of the last three times in this situation, they lost outright!
The Bears have been terrible as underdogs, the Cardinals have been terrible at home and the Broncos almost never cover on Monday Nights.
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Buffalo at LA Rams +2.5, Total 52.5 | Matchup Stats
Teams have met 10 times since 1983, 9 games went OVER
Rams are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games
OVER is 19-3 Buffalo’s last 22 games vs NFC West teams
Rams are 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 games in September
Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against LA Rams
Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games
Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games played in Week 1.
UNDER is 7-3 Buffalo’s last 10 games played on a Thursday.
Bills 11-3 SU past 14 games as road favorite
UNDER is 17-6 LA Rams’ last 23 home games
Rams are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC East teams
Rams won and covered five straight season openers
Rams have been home dogs just twice the past two seasons and won outright both times (34-23 vs TB Sept. 26, 2021 and 20-17 vs Dallas Sept. 13, 2020).
Indianapolis @ Houston +8, Total 45.5 | Matchup Stats
UNDER is 10-2 Houston’s last 12 games against Indianapolis.
Texans are 2-10 SU in their last 12 games at home.
Colts are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games played in week 1.
Colts are 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 games played in Week 1 including 8 straight SU
Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Houston.
Colts are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.
Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Houston
Colts UNDER is 8-1 Indianapolis’ last 9 divisional games
Colts lost 2 of last 3 times they are road favorites of a TD or more since 2020
San Francisco @ Chicago +7, Total 41.5 | Matchup Stats
49ers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games
49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games
UNDER in 7 of San Francisco’s last 8 games played in week 1.
49ers 1-5 ATS past 6 times as road favorites of 7 or more since 2012
Bears 0-6 ATS past 6 as home dogs
Bears 3-12 ATS past 15 as underdog
Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games
New England @ Miami -3, Total 47 | Matchup Stats
Dolphins are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games as the favourite.
Patriots are 15-3 SU in their last 18 season openers
Patriots are 2-7 SU, ATS in their last 9 games at Miami.
Dolphins are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games at home
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5, Total 44.5 | Matchup Stats
Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, including 8 in a row
Bengals are 4-18 SU in their last 22 games at home against Pittsburgh.
Bengals covered 7 straight conference games
Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 divisional games
Steelers 18-6-1 ATS since 2000 as road dogs of 6 or more
Kansas City @ Arizona +3.5, Total 54 | Matchup Stats
Chiefs are 12-1 SU in their last 13 non-conference games
Chiefs are 15-2 SU in their last 17 games in September.
Cardinals 4-1 ATS past 5 at home to Chiefs
Chiefs have won SU and played OVER past 7 season openers
Chiefs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as the favorite
Cardinals just 3-10 ATS past 13 at home, including 0-5 ATS streak
Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the underdog
Tampa Bay @ Dallas +1.5, Total 50 | Matchup Stats
Cowboys are 12-1 SU in their last 13 games at home against Tampa Bay.
Cowboys are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 conference games
Bucs are 18-5 SU in their last 23 road games
Bucs are 15-4 SU in their past 19 games as road chalk
Cowboys on 1-5 ATS regular season streak when small home chalk of 1-3 points
Monday Night Football Trends
Denver @ Seattle +6, Total 42 | Matchup Stats
Seahawks are 15-4 SU in their last 19 Monday Night games
Broncos are 3-14 SU in their last 17 Monday road games
Broncos 3-11-1 ATS past 15 MNF games
UNDER is 10-4 past 14 meetings here
Broncos 8-2 SU past 10 season openers
UNDER is 15-5 Denver’s last 20 games as the favorite.
Seahawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference games
Seattle has been a September home dog just 4 times since 2010 and won outright every time
Seattle has been home underdog of 6 or more points just three times since 2011 and covered all three