Oct 20, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin (right) congratulates quarterback Russell Wilson (3) on his touchdown pass against the New York Jets during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Week 18 NFL Picks

Week 18 picks – what a concept. Here comes an extra week of NFL action, an extra week to pocket cash before the playoffs.

Check out the predictions with odds midweek courtesy of FanDuel sportsbook.

Bengals -2 @ Steelers – Play Cincinnati

Pittsburgh lives to fight another day if they lose here, Cincinnati must win and get help to sneak into the playoffs at 9-8. Cincy has been terrific as road chalk this season covering all five times and they ride a 4-game win streak while the banged-up Steelers ride a 3-game losing streak.

We doubt that Miami and Denver will both lose, meaning Cincy still doesn’t get in, but we see them doing their part Saturday night.

Kansas City +11 @ Denver – Play KC

The Chiefs will rest everyone but they are 15-1 for many reason and depth is one of them. Laying 11 points is a lot for Denver and expecting KC to roll over – even with a lineup of second stringers – is silliness.

They have won 8 straight January games and 17 of 17 games against the Broncos. Can they beat the motivated Broncos? Maybe not. Can they keep this game within double digits? Sure can. They are 15-4-1 ATS as dogs over recent seasons.

Giants +5 @ Eagles – Play NYG

Philly probably won’t play regulars and probably won’t let Saquon Barkley chase a rushing record against his old team. That means we are handicapping a care-free Giants team that erupted last week vs a semi-interested Eagles team resting for the first round.

The Giants have lost 11 straight seasons here but are 6-2 ATS past 8 visits to Philly. Given the circumstances, we believe the Giants will hang around and possibly spring the upset here. We see good value at +5 on the Giants.

 

—————————————

Archived Week 18 NFL picks article from Jan. 5, 2024

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5): Lions

The Vikings’ quarterback situation and the team has now lost three in a row. They were particularly sad in a Week 17 home loss to the Green Bay Packers. I doubt there’s much gas in the tank. To be safe, though, I’d buy this down to -3.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7): Bengals

The Bengals are eliminated but the Browns have nothing to play for and are phoning this in. Meanwhile, many Bengals players — including quarterback Jake Browning — will want to make statements in the team’s home finale. They’ll roll in a blowout.

Dallas Cowboys (-13) at Washington Commanders: Cowboys

The Cowboys win big. It’s sort of their thing. We saw it when they crushed Washington by 35 points earlier this season, which is one of eight 20-plus-point Dallas wins this season. After a few off weeks, they’re due for another lopsided win against a team that is much better off losing for draft capital purposes. Watch Dallas feast on the league’s worst scoring defense.

—————-

Archived Week 18 NFL picks article from Jan. 7, 2023

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5) AT DENVER BRONCOS: CHIEFS

This will still matter to the Chiefs, who should be fired up after a tough loss and should benefit from the expected return of left tackle Orlando Brown in a blowout victory.

DALLAS COWBOYS (-7) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: COWBOYS

I wouldn’t bet on this game because it’s impossible to know how seriously either team will take it, but the Eagles look more worn down from their recent playoff push than Dallas does. The Cowboys are also the much better team on paper.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-15) AT JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: JAGUARS

The Jags hung with Indianapolis earlier this season and should have some spunk at home against a Colts team that hasn’t won convincingly in over a month.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-10.5) AT HOUSTON TEXANS: TEXANS

The Texans have put up plenty of fights this season. They put up 71 points in back-to-back wins in Weeks 15 and 16. At home and with the backdoor a possibility, I’m taking the points.

CINCINNATI BENGALS AT CLEVELAND BROWNS (-6): BENGALS

The Bengals were favored before Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon were ruled out, and now I think we’re getting tremendous value for them considering that the down-and-out Browns are in complete disarray and also lacking their starting quarterback.

CHICAGO BEARS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5.5): BEARS

Same here for the Bears, who gained a couple points against the spread when Justin Fields COVID-19 news hit. Is Fields really worth multiple points right now? The Vikings looked dead in Week 17 and I’m not giving up a hook here.

WASHINGTON (-7) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: WASHINGTON

Speaking of looking dead, I’ll need a lot more than seven points to back a Giants team that has lost five straight games by double-digit margins

PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-5): STEELERS

The Ravens are basically toast following a fifth consecutive loss. They might beat an inferior Steelers team in a desperate situation, but this is a field-goal game waiting to happen.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: PACKERS

Tough to confidently back the Packers, but starters will get some action and they’re the superior team regardless. Just don’t put money on this game. And if you must, at least pay to make that hook go away.

NEW YORK JETS AT BUFFALO BILLS (-16): JETS

All 10 of Buffalo’s wins have come by double-digit margins, but the Jets put up a fight last time and they can still score some points. I just think we’re pushing it with a 16-pointer here.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-6.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: DOLPHINS

Miami usually plays the Patriots hard. Brian Flores’s squad has won the last two meetings, and they’re getting plenty of points at home here. It’s odd.

CAROLINA PANTHERS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-8): BUCS

Bruce Arians has made it clear the Bucs will keep pushing. Meanwhile, the Panthers haven’t lost by fewer than eight points since Week 11.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-5): RAMS

The Rams haven’t been winning convincingly and the 49ers really need this. Five points is too much.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (-7): CARDINALS

I can’t see Seattle putting much into this meaningless Week 18 road game, while the Cardinals have a lot to play for.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: SAINTS

The Saints can still potentially make the playoffs. Sean Payton’s squad won’t mess around against one of the worst home teams in the NFL.

LA CHARGERS (-3) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: CHARGERS

They may have the same record, but the Chargers are a top-12 team in terms of DVOA, while the Raiders are a bottom-12 team. They have a minus-68 scoring margin. There’s no reason to take them unless you’re getting more than a field goal here. In some spots, you might even be able to land the Bolts -2.5. Don’t overthink this one.

Bet Week 18

Rated 5/5