Dec 29, 2019; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) throws a pass past New England Patriots free safety Devin McCourty (32) and outside linebacker Dont'a Hightower (54) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Week 2 NFL Trends

If you ignored Week 1 betting trends, you ignored a chance to win plenty of wagers, so let’s not make the same mistake twice. Week 2 betting trends see even more steaks and team tendencies, including a few that favor Cleveland on Thursday night.

Among the highlights you will find below:

  • a 3-26 SU run for Detroit in Green Bay
  • the Bears have not covered a home spread against the Giants since 1991
  • the biggest home underdog number for the Chargers since John Elway was in town in 1998
  • the foolishness of betting against the Patriots as an early-season underdog.

(Trends are regular-season and odds are opening numbers from BetRivers and SugarHouse).

Thursday Night Football Matchup

Editor Note: Check out the TNF Betting trends piece posted earlier.

Detroit +6 at Green Bay Total 47.5

It’s one of the most lopsided streaks in pro sports history. In 29 seasons, the Lions have won just three times in Green Bay. The Lions own a 6-0 ATS mark recently against the Packers, but all their other trends are negative. Can they rebound from a bad Week 1 loss or is their season kaput already?

Green Bay is 26-3 SU past 29 at home to Detroit.

Detroit is 0-11 SU past 11 games as underdog and 1-13 SU past 14 games.

Detroit is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games.

Detroit 6-0 ATS past 6 vs GB

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Green Bay’s last 11 games against NFC North rivals

NY Giants +5.5 at Chicago Total 43

The last time the Giants failed to cover the spread at Chicago, Jeff Hostetler and Jim Harbaugh were battling it out Sept 15, 1991. Since then, the Giants are 6-0 ATS here. Despite a terrible overall SU trend as an underdog, the Giants have a bunch of trends that point to them continuing this pattern.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games at home.

NY Giants are 3-19 SU past 22 games as the underdog.

NY Giants are 5-1 ATS past 6 games vs Chicago.

NY Giants are 12-3 ATS past 15 road games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of NY Giants’ last 10 games on the road.

NY Giants are 0-8 ATS past 8 games in Week 2.

NY Giants are 1-13 SU past 14 games as the underdog.

NY Giants are 9-2 ATS past 11 Sunday road games.

Giants 10-2 ATS as road underdog since start of 2018 season, just 3-9 SU

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago’s last 11 games at home.

Chicago is 1-6 ATS past 7 games as the favorite.

Jacksonville +12 at Tennessee Total 43

Editor Note: This game has been bet down to -7.5 as of Friday, so the Jags re no longer double-digit road dogs and the Titans not DD home faves.

The Jaguars are probably not for real and this game will prove it. The Jags have lost 7 in a row as double-digit road dogs while not packing much bite against the spread (1-5-1 ATS).  Meanwhile, the Titans have been double-digit home chalk just three times since 2009, and failed to cover all three.

Jacksonville is 2-10 SU past 12 games at Tennessee.

Atlanta +6 at Dallas Total 52

Not much to see here between two teams that underachieved last week. The Falcons own a weird Week 2 trend and there is a mild lean to the OVER historically when these teams play in Dallas.

Atlanta are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games played in Week 2.

The total is 6-1 favoring the OVER past seven meetings in Dallas.

San Francisco -7 at New York Jets Total 43.5

Two more Week 1 losers clash here, with the 49ers laying a TD again. That didn’t work very well last week at home to Arizona. The Jets are rarely home dogs this big, in fact just 11 times since 2007. They won once in those 11 games, but are 6-4-1 ATS. The Niners have been road chalk of 7 or more points just four times since Dec. 2012 and failed to cover all four.

LA Rams -1 at Philadelphia Total 46

LA got a surprise win, the Eagles absorbed a shocking loss. The Eagles have historically thrashed the Rams, while the Rams enjoy several dominant ATS as a road team and against conference rivals. Rams bettors will like this stat – Philly is just 3-11 ATS in 14 games since 2011 as home underdogs.

Philadelphia is 12-1-1 ATS past 14 games vs LA Rams including 6 straight at home

LA Rams are 8-2 ATS past 10 road games.

LA Rams are 13-3-1 ATS past 17 games vs NFC teams.

The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Philadelphia’s last 22 games at home.

Philadelphia is 2-9 ATS past 11 games in Week 2.

Carolina +8 at Tampa Bay Total 48.5

Carolina has been terrible as an underdog, but has been a good bet at Tampa Bay. The biggest betting trend here is the OVER, where Tampa has played 11 in a row vs NFC foes.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games against an opponent in the NFC.

Carolina is 1-10 SU past 11 Sunday games.

Carolina is 5-1 ATS past 6 games at Tampa Bay.

Carolina lost 8 straight and 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog.

Tampa Bay is 0-5-2 ATS past 7 home games.

Tampa Bay is 10-3 ATS past 13 games in Week 2.

Denver +6 at Pittsburgh Total 43

There are so many UNDER trends here that this game MUST be destined to play OVER. The Broncos enjoy positive Week 2 SU trends, solid underdog trends but terrible road trends. But check out the decisive history around UNDERs.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 15 games vs conference foes.

Denver is 13-2 SU in their last 15 games played in Week 2.

The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver’s last 26 games.

Denver is 6-20 SU past 26 road games.

Denver are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games played in September.

OVER is 6-1 past seven meetings played in Pittsburgh.

UNDER is 17-4 in Denver’s last 21 vs AFC teams.

Denver is 12-5 ATS past 17 games as underdog.

UNDER is 17-5 in Denver’s last 22 as underdog.

UNDER is 17-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 22 vs AFC teams.

UNDER is 12-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 15 Week 2 games.

UNDER is 9-3 in Pittsburgh’s last 12 games as favorite.

Minnesota +3 at Indianapolis Total 47.5

A lot of negative trends for a Vikings team that got off to negative start against Green Bay. The Vikes don’t win in Indianapolis and usually don’t cover as underdogs either.

Indianapolis is 11-3 SU past 14 home games.

Indianapolis is 13-4 SU past 17 games NFC North teams.

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Minnesota’s last 17 games played in Week 2.

Vikes lost 6 in a row SU at Indy

Minnesota is 2-9 SU (3-8 ATS) past 11 games as underdog.

Buffalo -5.5 at Miami Total 42

So you want to trust the Bills to cover 5.5 points on the road? They have been in this position (road chalk of 5.5 points or more) just twice in 12 seasons (most recently last year when they won here 37-20) at -7. If you don’t trust the Bills, maybe its their recent UNDER tendency that attracts you.

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Buffalo’s last 21 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Buffalo’s last 10 games against Miami.

The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Buffalo’s last 21 games on the road.

Washington +6.5 at Arizona Total 46.5

Two surprise Week 1 winners, can Washington do it twice in a row? Historically they have dominated the Cardinals but they are the second-best team in this matchup (by a long way).

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona’s last 11 games played in September.

Washington is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games against Arizona

KC -8.5 at LA Chargers Total 49.5

This is the biggest Chargers home underdog number since they were +13.5 against Denver Nov. 28, 1998. John Elway threw four TD passes and three INTs, but out-duelled fellow Hall of Famer Craig Whelihan, who threw 53 times and was picked off five times) Elway fumbled on the first play, Junior Seau recovered but the Broncos won anyway. I know the Chiefs are talented and defending champions, but every point spread looks easy for them and all the trends favor them to cover this big road number.

LA Chargers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games against Kansas City.

The total has gone OVER in 11 of LA Chargers’ last 14 games played in Week 2.

Kansas City is 12-0 SU 12 games played in September.

Kansas City is 15-1 SU past 16 games vs AFC West rivals.

Kansas City is 11-1 ATS past 12 games.

Kansas City is 10-3 ATS past 13 vs LA Chargers.

Kansas City is 6-0 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games at LA Chargers.

Kansas City is 25-9 ATS past 34 games vs AFC teams.

LA Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games at home.

Kansas City is 19-4 ATS past 23 games vs AFC West rivals.

Chargers 8-24 SU past 5+ seasons within the division

Baltimore -6.5 at Houston Total 52.5

If you think 6.5 points is too much for the Ravens on the road against a good team, take heed: they have been road chalk of 6.5 pts or more five times since 2017 and covered every time. They also enjoy plenty of current positive trends to win and cover, while the Texans enjoy only a lame Week 2 SU trend.

Houston is 10-2 SU past 12 games played in Week 2.

Houston is 2-9 SU past 11 games vs Baltimore.

Baltimore has won 11 straight Sunday games.

Baltimore is 13-1 SU past 14 games.

Baltimore is 9-1-1 ATS past 11 road games.

New England +4 at Seattle Total 45

Mess with the Patriots as an underdog at your own wallet-draining peril. For two decades, New England has almost always been favored and in those rare cases where they get points, they take great offence to it and win anyway.

Get this – Pats have been regular-season road dog just 13 times since 2010 and paid off at 10-3 ATS. And get this – go back 20 seasons and the Pats have been a September underdog just 11 times since 2001. Oh and they also rewarded their backers with a 9-1-1 ATS run.

The total has gone OVER in 17 of Seattle’s last 21 vs AFC East teams.

Past five meetings all played OVER the total.

New England is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games when playing as the underdog.

Since 1998, the Seahawks 20-8-1 ATS as home chalk in September

Pats have been a dog in September just 11 times since 2001 (9-1-1 ATS)

Monday Night Football Betting Trends

New Orleans -6 at Las Vegas Total 51.5

Monday Night Football trends are seldom as one-sided as this Week 2 matchup. Las Vegas has been tough lately as an underdog and done very well on MNF, but check out the Saints trends.

Saints won 11 straight SU vs AFC teams

New Orleans is 12-4 ATS papst 16 games.

New Orleans is 7-2 ATS past 9 against Las Vegas.

New Orleans is 7-0 ATS past 7 road games (14-3 ATS past 17).

New Orleans is 1-7 ATS past 8 Week 2 games.

Las Vegas is 5-1 ATS past 6 Monday Night games.

Vegas 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS past 8 as home dogs

Trend Dummy (not his real name) is a veteran sports betting writer, who really should be a lot smarter by now. Starting with a betting trends fascination in 1993, Dummy has been chasing trends, patterns, streak and mathematical anomalies ever since. A serious data miner with real databases and betting acumen, he sometimes stretches stats to fit a narrative, but the data is legit. You decide if the trends have handicapping value.