Into the fire

In what very well may go down as the worst professional quarterback performance of the 2014 season, assuming we’re no longer operating under the impression that Geno Smith is a professional quarterback, the Johnny Manziel rocket ship detonated on the launch pad Sunday against Cincinnati without lifting even so much as an inch off the Earth’s surface. It was a horrific display of indecisiveness and ineffectiveness that resulted in just 10 of 18 completed passes for only 80 yards with two interceptions and zero points scored while marking Cleveland’s fourth loss in five games and signaling the end of the city’s hopes for a postseason berth.

It was also the 22-year-old former Heisman Trophy winner’s first career start.

This last part is of particular importance because of the reaction Manziel’s performance has solicited from both the fans and media. You’d think the 22nd overall pick in last May’s draft was an eight-year veteran and six-time Pro Bowler who just pulled a Chris Webber in the Super Bowl with the amount of backlash, criticism and “I told you so” nonsense that made its way into the air we breathe at such a breakneck speed.

Take this tweet from ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith, which was sent out into the vast abyss of the internet barely one hour into Manziel’s first career start:

“It’s officially awful right now for @JManziel2. Merrill Hoge is looking like a profit right now”

This is the type of overreaction that we can all do without, but is simultaneously necessary to both attract eyeballs and ignite debate, something Smith’s television show First Take excels at doing. Manziel is a hot topic, so simply employing some elementary level of patience while giving the rookie signal-caller a chance to grow over the course of a few weeks or, gasp, even months won’t move the meters. The Texas A&M product performed poorly on Sunday, so the natural conclusion of this day and age is that he must be a bust. There’s no other way to slice the pie.

Johnny ManzielManziel's debut was terrible, but it was still only one game.

Let’s start with the fact that Cleveland made the right move by turning the keys to the car over to Manziel, as there are still some making the case that veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer and his 76.3 passer rating (31st in the NFL, one spot behind Oakland rookie Derek Carr) should be under center for the Browns. Why? The Cleveland Browns weren’t winning this season because of Hoyer, they were winning despite him. Prior to the passing of the torch to Manziel, Hoyer’s previous five starts had resulted in just one touchdown pass and eight interceptions. The bottom line is that the guy wasn’t getting it done and won’t be back in Cleveland next season, so whether the franchise was in the playoff race or not, the correct move was to get Manziel in the starting lineup so that he could get his feet wet and commence building a rapport with wide receiver Josh Gordon so the team could hit the ground running in 2015.

Let’s next acknowledge the fact that there was no way Cleveland was winning that football game on Sunday, regardless of who was under center. The AFC North-leading Bengals, a playoff team in four of the past five seasons, had this game circled on the calendar ever since they were embarrassed on their home turf in front of a national audience by the Browns back in early November. Cincinnati entered this contest having won three of its last four outings with a defense that was permitting just 20.6 points per game in 2014 (tenth in NFL). If there was ever a game where revenge played an integral role in the outcome, this was it.

But even though the franchise made the right call in opting for Manziel over Hoyer and despite the fact that this was a showdown the Browns were unlikely to win, the first-year signal-caller is still taking a Mayweather-like beating in the media for playing like a rookie quarterback who was making his first career start. Is it perhaps just the slightest bit possible that once again a drastic overreaction is taking place in regards to a situation that was both predictable and common amongst those thrust into a similar set of circumstances?

The heat Manziel took following Sunday’s loss was nowhere near the level of scrutiny paid to fellow rookie quarterbacks Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater and Blake Bortles, all of whom have produced just as dreadful stat lines during their respective inaugural campaigns. But the difference between those three quarterbacks and Manziel is that neither Carr nor Bortles nor Bridgewater gave the media any ammunition with which to use against them when the going got tough. Remember, Manziel is the guy with the big ego, bad attitude and arrogant swagger. He’s an easy target and it’s largely his own fault. If anything, the former Heisman Trophy winner’s approach to his post-collegiate career should serve as a lesson in how not to act when you’ve yet to win anything at the professional level.

But that doesn’t change the fact that this is still a 22-year-old kid who was making his first career start against one of the best teams in the league. It was a poor performance with a disastrous result, but that doesn’t mean Manziel is a bust, just like a stellar outing and a win over Cincinnati wouldn’t have made Johnny Football the next Tom Brady.

Sometimes one game is simply that and nothing more.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Updated Super Bowl odds: Patriots back on top

It feels like a lifetime ago when the fans and national media alike had left Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots for dead following a horrific 41-14 Monday night loss at Kansas City in which the future Hall of Fame quarterback threw for just 159 yards with two interceptions.

Fast forward 11 weeks and the situation couldn’t have been further from the truth, as the Patriots have ripped off nine wins over their last ten games, have already put a bow on the AFC East and find themselves in a race with Denver and Indianapolis for the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs.

It just goes to show that maybe before we hit that little “tweet” button, we should re-think what’s being sent out into the abyss of the internet.

However, as the Patriots have surged, others have fallen. The San Francisco 49ers, a participant in each of the last three NFC Championship games, are no longer on the board at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook after being eliminated from postseason contention with Sunday’s 17-7 loss at Seattle. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers slipped from the Super Bowl favorite of 5/2 to 9/2 after being upset 21-13 at Buffalo this past weekend.

As for our early December value play (Baltimore), the Ravens have jumped from 40/1 to 30/1 now that John Harbaugh’s crew is in control of its own destiny.

Note: The odds in parenthesis indicate where each team was listed back on August 25.

New England Patriots: 5/2 (8/1)
Seattle Seahawks: 3/1 (9/2)
Green Bay Packers: 9/2 (10/1)
Denver Broncos: 5/1 (5/1)
Dallas Cowboys: 12/1 (75/1)
Arizona Cardinals: 16/1 (40/1)
Indianapolis Colts: 16/1 (20/1)
Detroit Lions: 20/1 (40/1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 25/1 (25/1)
Baltimore Ravens: 30/1 (25/1)
Cincinnati Bengals: 30/1 (20/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 30/1 (20/1)
New Orleans Saints: 50/1 (7/1)
Carolina Panthers: 60/1 (60/1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 80/1 (50/1)
Atlanta Falcons: 100/1 (60/1)
San Diego Chargers: 100/1 (30/1)
Buffalo Bills: 200/1 (60/1)
Houston Texans: 500/1 (25/1)
Miami Dolphins: 500/1 (50/1)
Cleveland Browns: 1000/1 (100/1)

OFF THE BOARD

San Francisco 49ers (10/1)
Chicago Bears (20/1)
New York Giants (40/1)
Washington Redskins (50/1)
St. Louis Rams (75/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (100/1)
Tennessee Titans (100/1)
New York Jets (60/1)
Minnesota Vikings (100/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (200/1)
Oakland Raiders (100/1)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Start 'em, Sit 'em, Smash 'em

FANTASY QUESTIONS

While the Sunday live chat is no more, I’m still available to answer any and all fantasy questions throughout the week on twitter @JoeFortenbaugh if you use the hashtags #FSTLV and #GMCFF. Fire over some good ones and they just may end up on the Fantasy Sports Network Sunday morning between 10:00am-12:00pm eastern.

WEEK 15 SURVIVOR PICKS

–At this point in the season, I really have no clue which teams you guys have left to use in survivor. So rather than throw out what will likely amount to repeat selections, hit me up on twitter @JoeFortenbaugh and we can talk it through from there. Best of luck!

FADE OF THE WEEK

Record: 6-7-1

Last week: Houston Texans (-4.5) over Jacksonville Jaguars (won)

This week: Cincinnati Bengals (+1) at Cleveland Browns

Analysis: Johnny Football gets the start, the Bengals get their revenge. Cincinnati was humiliated on their home turf by this Browns team on a Thursday night last month in a game in which Andy Dalton and company mustered just three points and 165 total yards of offense. After that wakeup call, the Bengals promptly ripped off three straight road victories to help re-claim the lead in the AFC North. This game has been circled on the calendar for Marvin Lewis and company November 6. Expect a different result this time around.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS

Last week: 2-3

Season: 33-37 (.471)

At this point, the Big Puma and I are simply playing for pride, assuming there is some left to be earned by closing strong over these final few weeks. In either case, here’s our card for Week 15:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans
NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins
BUFFALO BILLS (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10) vs. San Francisco 49ers
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.

START ‘EM UP

Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys (at Philadelphia): The Dallas signal-caller is completing a staggering 69.1 percent of his passes this season (career-high) and is coming off a three-touchdown outing against the sinking ship known as the Chicago Bears. But the real upside here is twofold: First, Romo and the Cowboys are on ten days rest heading into a revenge game against a Philadelphia team that embarrassed the Cowboys in their own building back on Thanksgiving. Second, the Eagles currently rank 26th in the NFL in pass defense (258.1 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 23.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (second-most in NFL). The Las Vegas over/under for this rematch is set at 55.5, so expect to see some fireworks on Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay): Stewart carried the ball a season-high 20 times last week in New Orleans in a breakout effort that resulted in 155 rushing yards and one score. Don’t look now, but the Oregon product is averaging an otherworldly 7.5 yards per carry over his last two outings, which were road dates at Minnesota and New Orleans. Look for another tasty stat line Sunday in Charlotte against a miserable Tampa Bay defense that currently ranks 20th in the NFL against the run (115.8 yds/gm) while permitting an average of 21.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (eighth-most in NFL).

Jonathan StewartWeek 15 offers up a great spot for Jonathan Stewart.

Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston): Moncrief has hauled in just 27 passes so far through his rookie campaign, but we have a feeling that the Mississippi product could be headed for a big outing in Week 15. Note that while Reggie Wayne is expected to play, the veteran Pro Bowler is dealing with a torn triceps and will likely prove to be highly ineffective against the Texans secondary. That leaves T.Y. Hilton as the other Indianapolis receiver, who has shredded Houston for 31 receptions for 611 yards and six touchdowns in five career meetings against the club. The Texans are all too familiar with this stat line, so expect Houston to roll safety help over the top of Hilton in an effort to neutralize the three-year veteran, opening up the field for Moncrief to make it rain. Take note that in addition to everything you just read, Houston is currently surrendering an average of 27.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (second-most in NFL).

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Jacksonville): Considered nothing more than additional depth on an NFL depth chart prior to the start of the season, Forsett has taken every advantage afforded him in 2014 to rank third in the NFL in rushing with just three games to play (1,080 yards). Through his last four outings, the California product has amassed a healthy 471 rushing yards on 79 carries (5.96 YPC) with five trips to pay dirt. We expect the good times to continue Sunday against a Jacksonville defense that currently ranks 28th in the league against the run (132.5 yds/gm) while giving up an average of 22.4 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (sixth-most in NFL).

Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Atlanta): Bryant is coming off a stellar performance against the Cincinnati Bengals (4-109-1) and by all accounts has moved ahead of Markus Wheaton on the Pittsburgh depth chart. This means more targets and more touches, which couldn’t come at a better time as the Steelers head to Atlanta on Sunday to challenge a Falcons defense that is on short rest, currently ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass (287.8 yds/gm) and is permitting an average of 26.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (fourth-most in NFL).

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans (vs. NY Jets): It’s a gamble simply because the Tennessee Titans are so damn bad, but Sunday’s matchup with the New York Jets is definitely worth considering. The Titans will make the switch at quarterback from the injured Zach Mettenberger to Jake Locker, so the hope is that the Washington product checks down to his reliable tight end when things get dicey in the pocket. After all, the Jets are currently surrendering an average of 10.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (fourth-most in NFL).

Cleveland Browns, D/ST (vs. Cincinnati Bengals): The obvious choices (Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit) are all owned at a high percentage and thus, not worth mentioning. But for those of you looking to stream a widely available D/ST (34% owned in Yahoo! leagues) in Week 15, take a look at the Cleveland Browns. Mike Pettine’s crew is giving up an average of just 2
0.8 points per game this season (11th-best in NFL) and has already forced 26 turnovers (third in NFL). In addition, this is the same unit that held the Bengals to just three points and 165 total yards of offense in Cincinnati back on November 6. You could do worse.

SIT ‘EM DOWN

Johnny Manziel, QB, Cleveland Browns (vs. Cincinnati): There will be some highlights and there will be some lowlights in Manziel’s first career start, which comes against a revenge-minded Cincinnati defense that is permitting an average of just 18.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (seventh-fewest in NFL). Look for the former Heisman Trophy winner to pick up some quality yards with his feet, but to struggle through the air as the Bengals bring the heat. Not the worst of options on the board, but the final result won’t justify the hype.

All San Diego running backs (vs. Denver): Ryan Mathews (ankle) is banged up, Donald Brown has never lived up to his first-round billing and Branden Oliver has apparently fallen from grace after torching opposing defenses earlier this season. That’s a bad combination to feature when walking into a divisional rivalry against a Broncos defense that currently ranks second in the NFL against the run (72.8 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of just 14.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (fifth-fewest in NFL). If Mathews plays, he won’t handle the full workload. If Mathews sits, Brown and Oliver will split the reps. Nothing good comes from this scenario.

Johnny ManzielAll eyes will be on Manziel Sunday in Cleveland.

Mike Wallace, WR, Miami Dolphins (at New England): The warm weather Wallace has scored just one touchdown over his last four outings and has yet to top 81 receiving yards in a game this season, so it’s difficult to like his chances Sunday in New England against Darrelle Revis and the Patriots. This is a classic case of a guy who has failed to produce going up against extremely stiff competition, meaning there’s very little upside here.

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers (at Buffalo): Lacy has been an absolute beast over the second half of the season, but it’s worth mentioning that both the situation and the matchup in Week 15 warrant a tapering of expectations. For starters, the Packers are working on a short week and traveling to Buffalo to play a non-conference opponent. Second, the Bills currently rank eighth in the NFL against the run (99.2 yds/gm) while giving up an average of just 14.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (sixth-fewest in NFL). This isn’t a doomsday scenario for Lacy owners by any stretch, but it’s not going to be easy rolling up a gaudy stat line in this spot.

All San Francisco wide receivers (at Seattle): The 49ers have a banged up offensive line that has permitted 43 sacks this season (third-most in NFL), a quarterback with no confidence who is in the midst of a horrific regression (QB rating of 85.1, 23rd in NFL) and a Week 15 date in Seattle against the best and most aggressive defense in football. You’ve got two teams trending in opposite directions here and it’s only going to get worse for Niner Nation as their soon-to-be ex-head coach and struggling offense get taken behind the woodshed Sunday at CenturyLink Field. Stay away from everybody in red and gold this weekend.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen, TEs, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston): They’re cutting into each other’s targets and face a Houston defense on Sunday that is surrendering an average of just 5.4 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (fifth-fewest in NFL). There are better options with more favorable upside out there (Larry Donnell, Delanie Walker).

Houston Texans, D/ST (at Indianapolis): The Texans currently rank fifth in fantasy scoring at the D/ST position, but this is not the week to ride with J.J. Watt and company. Andrew Luck has led the Colts to 25 or more points in each of the team’s last four outings against Houston, with a grand total of just three turnovers committed. In addition, the Colts are averaging a rock-solid 425.0 total yards and 29.5 points per game at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2014, so you know the venue suits the situation.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Las Vegas market report

This is normally the spot reserved for our weekly college football betting primer, but unless you guys are looking for a breakdown of Friday night’s highly anticipated Tennessee-Chattanooga at New Hampshire matchup, the college card is a bit thin this week to warrant a full-on breakdown. So from now through the Super Bowl, we’ll dedicate Wednesdays to our NFL Las Vegas market report, with the college football primer returning just before the start of bowl season.

2014 SNAPSHOT

Home teams: 104-100-4 (.509)
Favorites: 100-104-4 (.490)
Home favorites: 70-70-2 (.500)
Home dogs: 34-30-2 (.531)
Overs: 104-103 (.502)

New York Jets (2-11, 0-6 road) at Tennessee Titans (2-11, 1-5 home)

When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: Tennessee -2
Current: New York -1.5

New York in 2014: 3-9-1 ATS
Tennessee in 2014: 3-9-1 ATS

Geno SmithGeno Smith and the Jets are laying points on the road?

Analysis: What does it say about the Tennessee Titans when a lousy, two-win New York Jets team that is 1-4-1 ATS in away games this season travels to Nashville as a 1.5-point road favorite? Embarrassing, to say the least, but the key to this 3.5-point line move has to do with the potentially season-ending shoulder injury sustained by Tennessee quarterback Zach Mettenberger, as well as the fact that the Titans have dropped seven straight contests, the last three of which have come by an average of 24.0 points per matchup. While the Jets are bad in virtually every phase of the game, the Titans are just 4-15-1 ATS over their last 20 games overall and an astounding 1-10-1 ATS over their last 12 home contests. The Jets may stink, but this is still a mildly competitive club that has dropped its last two outings by a combined nine points.

Notable trends: The Jets are 3-8-1 ATS over their last 12 games against teams with a losing record while the Titans are 7-18-1 over their last 26 games played in the month of December.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5, 4-3 road) at Atlanta Falcons (5-8, 3-3 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: PK
Current: Pittsburgh -2.5

Pittsburgh in 2014: 6-7 ATS
Atlanta in 2014: 6-7 ATS

Analysis: The Falcons are operating on a short week here having played on Monday night at Green Bay, but the real concern is the availability of superstar wide receiver Julio Jones (hip) who was injured late in Week 14 after torching the Green Bay secondary for a career-high 259 receiving yards and one touchdown on 11 receptions. Atlanta has virtually no running game to speak of (23rd in NFL), so the absence of Jones would deal a serious blow to Matt Ryan and a Falcons offense that is backed up by the worst defense in the National Football League (410.8 yds/gm). However, it’s imperative bettors note that this is a non-conference game for the Steelers that is taking place one week before a two-game home stand that will feature matchups with playoff contenders Kansas City and Cincinnati. It’s won’t be easy to lay points on an inconsistent Pittsburgh club that is just 2-5 ATS over its last seven games following a win.

Notable trends: The Steelers are 5-12 ATS over their last 17 games following a win of more than 14 points while the Falcons are 5-1 ATS over their last six games played in the month of December.

San Francisco 49ers (7-6, 4-3 road) at Seattle Seahawks (9-4, 5-1 home)

When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Seattle -7.5
Current: Seattle -9.5

San Francisco in 2014: 6-7 ATS
Seattle in 2014: 7-6 ATS

Russell WilsonWilson and the Seahawks have owned the 49ers as of late.

Analysis: What was just recently considered to be the best rivalry in football has the potential to turn into a bloodbath Sunday afternoon as two teams heading in completely opposite directions square off at CenturyLink Field. With quarterback Colin Kaepernick in the midst of a horrific regression and head coach Jim Harbaugh likely headed to another team at the conclusion of the regular season, the 49ers are spiraling out of control at an alarming rate after getting blown out at home by this same Seahawks team on Thanksgiving before laying an egg against the 2-11 Raiders in Oakland last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are peaking at just the right time, with six wins over their last seven contests, the last three of which have come by an average of 14.0 points per game. This Seattle front four should have its way with a San Francisco offensive line that is in shambles at the moment. Also note that the 49ers are 0-6 ATS over their last six meetings with the Seahawks and 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Seattle.

Notable trends: The 49ers are 1-4 ATS over their last five games against teams with a winning record while the Seahawks are 20-7 ATS over their last 27 games against teams with a winning record.

Arizona Cardinals (10-3, 3-3 road) at St. Louis Rams (6-7, 3-3 home)

When: Thursday, 8:25pm ET
Open: St. Louis -3
Current: St. Louis -4.5

Arizona in 2014: 9-4 ATS
St. Louis in 2014: 7-6 ATS

Analysis: This is one of the most significant moves of the week as a 10-win Arizona team is traveling to St. Louis to play a six-win Rams team that is laying more than the customary three points for home field advantage. In fact, this game opened on the key number of three, but was hit early in the Rams’ favor, which should be sounding off the alarms to all who are in the vicinity. As to the reason for the move? For starters, the Cardinals have dropped two of their last three outings, barely got by Kansas City at home last Sunday and are averaging an anemic 12.6 points per game during that stretch. That’s largely due to the fact that quarterback Drew Stanton is completing only 54.5 percent of his passes on the season with just two touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three outings. Additionally, go back to the last time these two teams got together on November 9 and look at the box score. Despite a final of 31-14 in Arizona’s favor, St. Louis was trailing only 17-14 with just under eight minutes to play before a late meltdown paved the way for a Cardinals cover. As for St. Louis, note that the Rams have won four of their last six matchups, have pitched two consecutive shutouts (Oakland, at Washington) and have covered the number in four straight games.

Notable trends: The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS over their last four Thursday games while St. Louis is 1-4 ATS over their last five Thursday games.

Minnesota Vikings (6-7, 2-4 road) at Detroit Lions (9-4, 6-1 home)

When: Sunday, 1:25pm ET
Open: Detroit -7
Current: Detroit -8

Minnesota in 2014: 8-5 ATS
Detroit in 2014: 7-6 ATS

Calvin J
ohnsonCalvin Johnson and the Lions have smoked the competition over the last two weeks.

Analysis: Outside of Green Bay at Buffalo, this game has a really good chance of being the most heavily teased matchup of the week (Detroit from -8 to -2). The early money has come in on the Lions and pushed this line off the key number of 7 to -8, despite the fact that Minnesota has won four of its last six games while covering the number in six of its last seven contests overall. Why? For starters, take a good look at the Vikings’ record and you’ll notice that even though the team has been surging as of late, Minnesota is 0-5 this season against teams with a winning record while being outscored 130-57 (losing by an average of 14.6 pts/gm). That tells us Mike Zimmer and company can handle the league’s inferior competition (like a home overtime win over the Jets last Sunday), but struggle when stepping up in class. On the other side of the field stands the Lions, who have emerged victorious in six of their last eight outings which features back-to-back ass-kickings of the Bears (34-17) and Buccaneers (34-17). In addition, take note the Detroit is 5-1 ATS over its last six encounters with NFC North opposition.

Notable trends: The Vikings are 9-1 ATS over their last ten games played in the month of December while the Lions are 5-2 ATS over their last seven home games.

Houston Texans (7-6, 4-3 road) at Indianapolis Colts (9-4, 5-2 home)

When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Indianapolis -7
Current: Indianapolis -6.5

Houston in 2014: 8-5 ATS
Indianapolis in 2014: 9-4 ATS

Analysis: While it’s only a half-point adjustment, this game features a line move off the key number of seven in the Texans’ favor, so it’s absolutely worth noting. These two teams got together in Houston back on October 9 with Andrew Luck and the Colts rolling up 456 yards of offense, yet barely hanging on to claim a 33-28 victory. Perhaps the thinking here is that it will be tough for Indy to knock off a feisty Texans team twice in the same season, or maybe it has to do with Houston trotting out one of the league’s best running back/defense combos, which is a style conducive to tight football games. Either way, it won’t be easy to fade a Colts squad that is 15-2 ATS over their last 17 games following an against the spread loss and 20-6 ATS over their last 26 home dates. Note that Indy will likely be a very popular six-point teaser play in Week 15 (from -6.5 to -.5).

Notable trends: The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams, while the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two teams.

THE REST OF THE RUNDOWN

Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills: From GB -6 to GB -5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers: From CAR -5.5 to CAR -4.5 (Newton)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: From BAL -12.5 to BAL -13.5
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: From KC -9.5 to KC -10
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: From DEN -3.5 to DEN -4
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns: From PK to PK
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: From NE -7.5 to NE -7.5
Washington Redskins at New York Giants: From NYG -6.5 to NYG -6.5
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: From PHI -3.5 to PHI -3.5
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears: From NO -3 to NO -3

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Be careful what you wish for

When a boat is taking on water, two options arise in regards to rectifying the situation: Assuming the resources exist, one can either patch the leak and attempt a journey to the nearest slice of dirt, or jump ship and hope for the arrival of the Coast Guard before it’s too late.

Despite a 7-6 record and a chance, albeit an infinitesimal one, of qualifying for the postseason, the San Francisco 49ers are taking on water at an alarming rate, a quandary that intensified Sunday afternoon following the team’s stunning 24-13 upset loss at Oakland. What was once a sea vessel of the most stunning magnitude has quickly transformed into a sinking slab of expensive parts no longer recognizable as the spectacular whole they used to comprise.

The problems in San Francisco range from inconsistent quarterback play to a middle-of-the-pack rushing attack, but at its very core involves a disconnect that pits CEO Jed York and General Manager Trent Baalke on one side of the divide and head coach Jim Harbaugh on the other. And due to an apparent unwillingness to secure the resources necessary to patch the leak, the 49ers appear headed for a swim in the frigid December temperatures of the nearby Pacific Ocean.

This is a grim situation for the 49ers franchise because head coaches like Jim Harbaugh are few and far between.

Jim HarbaughSince joining the 49ers in 2011, Harbaugh has won 71.6 percent of his regular season games.

In just under four seasons with the organization, the former Stanford head coach has compiled a regular season record of 43-17-1 (.716) and a postseason mark of 5-3 (.625) while guiding the 49ers to three straight NFC Championship game appearances and one trip to the Super Bowl. To put that into perspective, only the New England Patriots (47), Green Bay Packers (44) and Denver Broncos (44) have tasted victory more times in the regular season during that time span than the 49ers, with none of those clubs hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy since Harbaugh arrived in the Bay Area.

The past, however, is simply that and nothing more. What matters now is that the 49ers are preparing for life after Harbaugh because the two sides involved in this ever-growing rift have dug in their heels and opted to jump ship entirely rather than work quickly to identify the resources that may salvage a once great vessel.

This approach is no doubt alarming to the San Francisco faithful, who remember all too well what life was like in the eight years prior to the arrival of the “Captain Comeback.”

Before taking a chance on the hot-tempered, ultra competitive head coach from Stanford, the 49ers went eight seasons with neither a postseason appearance nor a winning record. From 2003-2010, this was a franchise that posted a 46-82 mark during the regular season (just three more wins than Harbaugh has produced in less than four years) under three head coaches (four, if you count Jim Tomsula’s two-game interim stint in 2010), each of whom was canned prior to reaching four full years with the organization. The 49ers were a model of both instability and inconsistency long removed from the legendary runs of the Bill Walsh and George Seifert eras.

Harbaugh, mind you, will be fine, as the soon-to-be 51-year-old will be rescued by his choice of more-than-willing vessels looking to snag one of the best and brightest in the business. In fact, Harbaugh’s resume speaks so loudly that he may not even have to hire a moving truck if the allure of the Silver & Black from across the bay turns out to be too much to pass up.

The 49ers, on the other hand, will cast aside a situation franchises like the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars and several others would willingly embrace if it meant experiencing a run similar to the one San Francisco has enjoyed over the last four years.

Honestly, you don’t think the Buccaneers would trade out of their current situation for the “problems” San Francisco is dealing with at the moment, especially if it meant playing in three straight NFC Championship games and one Super Bowl?

Of course they would. Because winning trumps all and while the 49ers may not be winning at the same rate now as they have over the last three seasons, that body of work should be more than enough to overcome the issues that have distracted the team from enjoying continued success in 2014.

But right now, none of that matters in San Francisco because the 49ers aren’t looking to patch the hole, they’re looking to jump ship.

Even if that means waiting another eight years for the Coast Guard to arrive.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Updated Super Bowl odds: 49ers, Chiefs plummet

As the dust settled at O.co Coliseum Sunday afternoon shortly after the Oakland Raiders put the finishing touches on a 24-13 upset of Bay Area rival San Francisco, the harsh reality of life without a place in the postseason set in for the 49ers.

Entering Week 14 with a record of 7-5 and listed at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook at a reasonable 30/1 to win this season’s Super Bowl, the 49ers plummeted to 100/1 after falling to a Raiders organization that claimed just its second victory of the season on Sunday.

Similar sentiments were felt to the south, where the Kansas City Chiefs—who entered Sunday’s clash at Arizona listed at 50/1 with a 7-5 record—lost a 17-14 heartbreaker to the Cardinals to drop to 200/1 on the Westgate board.

You’ll find the entire rundown of the Westgate’s updated Super Bowl odds below. As we mentioned last week, we like the value in playing the Baltimore Ravens at 40/1, who are currently 8-5 and finish the 2014 regular season vs. Jacksonville (Week 15), at Houston (Week 16) and vs. Cleveland (Week 17).

Note: The odds in parenthesis indicate where each team was listed back on August 25.

Green Bay Packers: 5/2 (10/1)
New England Patriots: 7/2 (8/1)
Seattle Seahawks: 7/2 (9/2)
Denver Broncos: 9/2 (5/1)
Indianapolis Colts: 16/1 (20/1)
Philadelphia Eagles: 16/1 (25/1)
Arizona Cardinals: 18/1 (40/1)
Dallas Cowboys: 18/1 (75/1)
Detroit Lions: 25/1 (40/1)
Baltimore Ravens: 40/1 (25/1)
Cincinnati Bengals: 40/1 (20/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 40/1 (20/1)
New Orleans Saints: 40/1 (7/1)
Atlanta Falcons: 60/1 (60/1)
San Diego Chargers: 60/1 (30/1)
Carolina Panthers: 100/1 (60/1)
Houston Texans: 100/1 (25/1)
Miami Dolphins: 100/1 (50/1)
San Francisco 49ers: 100/1 (10/1)
Cleveland Browns: 200/1 (100/1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 200/1 (50/1)
Buffalo Bills: 300/1 (60/1)
Minnesota Vikings: 2000/1 (100/1)
St. Louis Rams: 2000/1 (75/1)

OFF THE BOARD

Chicago Bears (20/1)
New York Giants (40/1)
Washington Redskins (50/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (100/1)
Tennessee Titans (100/1)
New York Jets (60/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (200/1)
Oakland Raiders (100/1)

Hit me up on Twitter: @ Posted in Fantasy Report, Vegas Hotline

Updated CFB title odds & opening lines

The inaugural four-team college football playoff is set. Whether you agree with the decision to select Ohio State over TCU and Baylor or not, the bottom line is that it’s time to start looking ahead to January 1.

Shortly after the playoff announcement was made on Sunday, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook released their updated championship odds and opening point spreads, which you will find below.

CURRENT COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Alabama Crimson Tide: Even
Oregon Ducks: 8/5
Ohio State Buckeyes: 7/1
Florida State Seminoles: 8/1

OPENING POINT SPREADS

Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-9.5) vs. Ohio State

Rose Bowl: Oregon (-8.5) vs. Florida State

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Start 'em, Sit 'em, Smash 'em

FANTASY QUESTIONS

While the Sunday live chat is no more, I’m still available to answer any and all fantasy questions throughout the week on twitter @JoeFortenbaugh if you use the hashtags #FSTLV and #GMCFF. Fire over some good ones and they just may end up on the Fantasy Sports Network Sunday morning between 10:00am-12:00pm eastern.

WEEK 13 SURVIVOR PICKS

–At this point in the season, I really have no clue which teams you guys have left to use in survivor. So rather than throw out what will likely amount to repeat selections, hit me up on twitter @JoeFortenbaugh and we can talk it through from there. Best of luck!

FADE OF THE WEEK

Record: 5-7-1

Last week: Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) over Atlanta Falcons (loss)

This week: Houston Texans (-4.5 at MGM) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Analysis: Three cheers for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won for just the second time this season and third time at home since the commencement of the Gus Bradley era with last Sunday’s 25-24 comeback victory over the reeling New York Giants. Now that we’ve got that little introduction out of the way, let’s talk about why the Houston Texans are going to cover the number in this football game. For starters, Houston has already forced an NFL-best 28 turnovers this season, while Jacksonville has given the ball away 24 times through just 12 games (24th in NFL). In addition, the Texans are 5-2 ATS over their last seven road games and 4-1 ATS over their last five outings against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is 3-10-2 ATS over its last 15 games overall and 17-36-1 ATS over its last 54 home dates.

WESTGATE LAS VEGAS SUPERCONTEST SELECTIONS

Last week: 1-4

Season: 31-34 (.476)

Brutal two-week stretch for myself and the Big Puma that dealt a swift and decisive blow to any chance—no matter how absurd—we had of finishing in the money this season. We’ll be back with a revamped game plan in 2015, but for now the goal is to close out this campaign with as much gusto as possible.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-12.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
DETROIT LIONS (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TENNESSEE TITANS (PK) vs. New York Giants

CLICK HERE to check out all of the current lines.

START ‘EM UP

Kyle Orton, QB, Buffalo Bills (at Denver): The nine-year veteran’s numbers have taken a hit in recent weeks due largely to the fact that rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins has been playing with a hip injury, but we still feel strongly about Orton’s prospects in Denver on Sunday. For starters, there’s a good chance that Peyton Manning and the Broncos get out to an early lead on Buffalo, forcing Orton and the Bills to put the ball in the air at a frequent pace. In addition, the Denver defense is currently surrendering an average of 21.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (seventh-most in NFL), so it’s not as if this will be the stiffest challenge Orton has faced in 2014.

Joique Bell, RB, Detroit Lions (vs. Tampa Bay): Come Sunday against the Buccaneers, Bell will be 10 days removed from a season-high 23-carry Thanksgiving day performance against the Chicago Bears that resulted in 91 rushing yards and two scores. Owners are advised to ride the 229-pound back for the second week in a row as Bell and the Lions challenge a Tampa defense that currently ranks 19th in the NFL against the run (116.0 yds/gm) while surrendering an average of 20.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (10th-most in NFL).

Eddie LacyLacy should see 20+ carries against the Falcons on Monday night.

Kenny Stills, WR, New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina): In the two games New Orleans has played since losing rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks (thumb) for the season, second-year pass-catcher Kenny Stills has hauled in 13 receptions for 260 yards and a touchdown on a respectable 15 targets. Owners should anticipate another solid stat line from the Oklahoma product on Sunday against a Carolina defense that is leaking out 27.6 points per game (29th in NFL) while permitting an average of 25.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (eighth-most in NFL).

Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers (vs. Atlanta): The Alabama product has carried the ball a healthy 46 times over his last two games with trips to the end zone via the ground & pound in two of his last three starts. But what’s surprising here is that Lacy has become a big factor in the Green Bay passing attack as well, with 21 receptions and three scores over his last six contests. Look for another solid effort Monday night against an Atlanta Falcons defense that is currently permitting an average of 23.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (third-most in NFL). Lacy should become the beneficiary of plenty of second half rushing attempts courtesy of a sizeable Packers lead.

Golden Tate, WR, Detroit Lions (vs. Tampa Bay): Despite his role as the No. 2 receiver in Detroit behind Pro Bowler Calvin Johnson, Tate currently ranks sixth in the NFL in both targets (116) and receptions (80). Additionally, the former Seattle Seahawk has been targeted at least ten times in seven of his last nine starts, so you know the opportunities will be there. That’s a big time plus in Week 14 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their leaking faucet of a secondary come to Ford Field having surrendered an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (sixth-most in NFL).

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (vs. NY Jets): The Notre Dame product comes with limited upside due to the presence of inconsistent rookie signal-caller Teddy Bridgewater, but for those of you who failed to land one of the “Big Three” (Gronk, Graham, Thomas) back in August, Rudolph makes for a nice option in Week 14. For starters, the four-year veteran is averaging a respectable 5.5 fantasy points per game (standard scoring) since coming back from groin surgery. In addition, the New York Jets—who have quit on the season—are currently surrendering more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any other team in the business (11.0 pts/gm). Take note that Rudolph is currently still available in 44 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Minnesota Vikings, D/ST (vs. New York Jets): They’re currently available in 45 percent of Yahoo! leagues and play host to the Jets on Sunday. How much more analysis do you need?

SIT ‘EM DOWN

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cincinnati): Since Big Ben lit the league on
fire with 12 touchdown passes spread out over two games, the two-time Super Bowl winner is averaging just 1.3 TD tosses per start with five interceptions and eight sacks. Expect more of the same Sunday against a Cincinnati defense that is currently surrendering an average of just 17.3 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (fifth-fewest in NFL). In addition, be advised that Roethlisberger has thrown for one or fewer touchdown passes in ten of his last 11 showdowns with the Bengals.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (vs. Baltimore): Miller has just one 100-yard rushing effort under his belt this season and has been limited to 15 or fewer carries in 11 of 12 outings this year. That’s not a good sign when entering a Week 14 showdown with a Baltimore Ravens defense that currently ranks fourth in the NFL against the run (86.2 yds/gm) while giving up fewer fantasy points to opposing running backs than any other team in the league (12.7 pts/gm). For as bad as this Baltimore secondary has been in 2014 due to a variety of injuries, the Ravens’ run defense has performed admirably.

Ben RoethlisbergerCincinnati has Big Ben's number.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers (vs. New England): The second-year receiver out of Cal has been red hot over the last two weeks, catching 17 passes for 225 yards and three scores on 24 targets. But Week 14 against cornerback Darrelle Revis and the New England Patriots—who are coming off a loss at Green Bay—is a far greater challenge than what the highly suspect St. Louis and Baltimore secondaries offered. Take note that the Patriots are giving up an average of just 19.4 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season (fourth-fewest in NFL).

Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo Bills (at Denver): Believe it or not, last Sunday against the Cleveland Browns was the first time in 2014 that Jackson carried the ball more than 12 times in a game (21 rushing attempts). Unfortunately for the eight-year veteran, those 21 carries resulted in just 70 yards with no touchdowns. Take a pass on Jackson and all of the other Buffalo running backs in Week 14 due to the fact that A) The Bills will likely be throwing all game in an effort to stay close to Peyton Manning and B) The Broncos defense is currently surrendering an average of just 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this year (fifth-fewest in NFL).

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at Minnesota): The rookie from Texas A&M had found the end zone six times in four games prior to getting blanked (4-49-0) against the Bengals in Week 13. Unfortunately, we think Evans is in for more of the same Sunday at Minnesota against a Vikings defense that currently ranks sixth against the pass (219.1 yds/gm) while permitting an average of just 21.7 fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts this season (13th-fewest in NFL). Remember, Evans and the Buccaneers are a warm weather team heading outdoors for a very cold game December game.

Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers (at New Orleans): The Panthers have quit on the season and Olsen hasn’t found the end zone since October 12 (six games). That’s a bad combination of factors when traveling to New Orleans to play a Saints defense that—despite looking absolutely hideous at times—is surrendering an average of just 5.0 fantasy points per contest to opposing tight ends this season (second-fewest in NFL).

Seattle Seahawks, D/ST (at Philadelphia): Seattle has held the opposition to 20 or fewer points in each of its last three outings with six turnovers and seven sacks. That’s an impressive run, but Week 14 offers up a different set of circumstances as the Seahawks have to travel across the country to face Chip Kelly’s well-rested Eagles team. Take note that Philadelphia has won ten straight matchups at home while scoring an average of 35.6 points per game.

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Week 15 college football betting primer

Bowl season can’t come soon enough as the 2014 college football campaign is about to put a bow on the impressive ass-kicking it handed me over the last three months. This week’s card features a mix of dogs and favorites, most likely in the incorrect order.

Last week: 1-5

Season: 33-46 (.417)

Central Florida Knights (8-3, 2-2 road) at East Carolina Pirates (8-3, 5-0 home)

When: Thursday, 7:30pm ET
Open: East Carolina -5.5
Current: East Carolina -7 (Westgate)

Central Florida in 2014: 7-4 ATS, 6-5 to the UNDER
East Carolina in 2014: 5-6 ATS, 6-5 to the UNDER

<p> Analysis: In Central Florida’s 15 losses suffered since 2011, ten have come by seven or fewer points, with two of the larger defeats coming at the hands of a 14th-ranked Ohio State team and 20th-ranked Missouri club. This is a strong Knights defense that is surrendering an average of just 166.2 passing yards per game this season with only 12 aerial touchdowns permitted. Keep that in mind when you consider the fact that the strength of the ECU offense is the passing game, as the Pirates are averaging 364.6 passing yards per contest in 2014 with 26 touchdowns. In addition, Central Florida is 4-1 ATS over its last five showdowns with East Carolina and 4-1 ATS over its last five games overall, while ECU has covered the number just one time over its last seven outings.

Notable trends: Central Florida is 6-0 ATS over its last six games played on a Thursday while East Carolina is 0-4 ATS over its last four games played on a Thursday.

Pick: Central Florida (+7)

Bowling Green Falcons (7-5, 3-3 road) at Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2, 4-1 home)

When: Friday, 7:00pm ET
Open: Northern Illinois -6
Current: Northern Illinois -6 (Westgate)

Bowling Green in 2014: 4-7-1 ATS, 7-5 to the UNDER
Northern Illinois in 2014: 6-6 ATS, 9-3 to the UNDER

Analysis: This is a rematch of last year’s MAC title game in which a 47-27 upset win for the Falcons crushed Northern Illinois’ dreams of a BCS bowl game (NIU was 12-0 entering the MAC Championship) while simultaneously ending the Huskies’ 25-game conference winning streak. So it’s safe to say that Northern Illinois will have revenge on its mind when these two get together Friday at Ford Field in Detroit. NIU enters the conference championship with a turnover differential of +10 while having won six straight contests by an average of 7.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Bowling Green heads to Detroit having lost two-straight to Toledo and Ball State, who are a combined 13-11 on the season.

Notable trends: Bowling Green is 2-6-1 ATS over its last nine games on turf while Northern Illinois is 7-3 ATS over its last ten games following an against the spread win.

Pick: Northern Illinois (-6)

#7 Arizona Wildcats (10-2, 4-1 road) at #2 Oregon Ducks (11-1, 6-1 home)

When: Friday, 9:00pm ET
Open: Oregon -13.5
Current: Oregon -14 (MGM)

Arizona in 2014: 5-7 ATS, 8-4 to the UNDER
Oregon in 2014: 8-4 ATS, 6-5-1 to the OVER

Marcus MariotaUS PRESSWIREMarcus Mariota is one game away from the Heisman Trophy and college football playoffs.

Analysis: Oregon’s lone defeat of the 2014 season—a loss, mind you, that many thought would derail the Ducks’ national championship hopes—came against this very same Arizona squad that became just the third team to win at Autzen Stadium since 2009 (USC and Stanford are the others). Since that setback, the Ducks have been destroying the competition, winning and covering seven straight contests by an average of 24.2 points per game. The Wildcats have had a mighty fine season under head coach Rich Rodriguez, but while they were gutting out a 42-35 win over in-state rival Arizona State last Saturday, Oregon was cruising to a 47-19 victory over Oregon State. In addition, take note the Arizona is just 1-7 ATS over its last eight games played on grass while Oregon is 14-3 ATS over its last 17 games played on grass.

Notable trends: Arizona is 3-9 ATS over its last 12 games following a win while Oregon is 20-7 ATS over its last 27 games following a win.

Pick: Oregon (-14)

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-4, 4-3 road) at Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1, 5-1 home)

When: Saturday, 12:00pm ET
Open: Marshall -12
Current: Marshall -12.5 (Wynn)

Louisiana Tech in 2014: 9-3 ATS, 8-3-1 to the OVER
Marshall in 2014: 8-4 ATS, 7-5 to the OVER

Analysis: Marshall’s dreams of a perfect season and marquee bowl game evaporated faster than summer sweat in the southern Nevada desert last Saturday following a 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky. So with their bubble having officially been popped, will the Thundering Herd even bother to show up for this one? That’s an important question to ask because we know Louisiana Tech, who is 20-7 ATS over its last 27 road games, will be coming to play seeing as how this is the school’s first-ever appearance in the Conference USA title game. We’ll take the points here.

Notable trends: Louisiana Tech is 16-5 ATS over its last 21 road games against teams with a winning home record.

Pick: Louisiana Tech (+12.5)

#4 Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 5-0 road) at #11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10-2, 5-1 home)

When: Saturday, 8:00pm ET
Open: Florida State -4
Current: Florida State -4 (Westgate)

Florida State in 2014: 3-9 ATS, 8-4 to the UNDER
Georgia Tech in 2014: 8-4 ATS, 6-6 to the OVER

Analysis: Interestingly enough, Florida State’s current 28-game winning streak began on December 1, 2012 with a 21-15 victory over, you guessed it, Georgia Tech. But this Seminoles team has been living on borrowed time, with four of the school’s last five wins coming by five or fewer points. In addition, while Florida State and turnover-prone quarterback Jameis Winston are 3-10 ATS over their last ten games overall, Georgia Tech, fresh off an upset of SEC school Georgia, has covered the number in five straight contests. Also worth noting is the fact that the Yellow Jackets are 3-0-2 ATS over their last five meetings with the Seminoles.

Notable trends: Florida State is 3-9 ATS over its last 12 games following a win while Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS over its last four conference games.

Pick: Georgia Tech (+4)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh

Updated Super Bowl odds: Packers claim top spot

In a Week 13 showdown many pegged as a Super Bowl preview, the Green Bay Packers’ 26-21 win over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots vaulted the NFC North leaders to the top of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s odds board.

Green Bay, which was available for purchase at 10/1 at the end of August, now resides at 5/2 and one spot above the New England Patriots (7/2). Super Bowl XLVIII participants Denver (4/1) and Seattle (5/1) follow close behind, with Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles nipping at their respective heels at 12/1.

Through 13 weeks, the biggest movers up the board include the Arizona Cardinals (40/1 to 20/1) and Dallas Cowboys (75/1 to 30/1) while the biggest fallers category features Carolina (60/1 to 1000/1) and Pittsburgh (20/1 to 80/1).

The entire rundown can be found below. As for our current list of value plays, we’d take a close look at Baltimore (40/1).

Note: The odds in parenthesis indicate where each team was listed back on August 25.

Green Bay Packers: 5/2 (10/1)
New England Patriots: 7/2 (8/1)
Denver Broncos: 4/1 (5/1)
Seattle Seahawks: 5/1 (9/2)
Philadelphia Eagles: 12/1 (25/1)
Indianapolis Colts: 18/1 (20/1)
Arizona Cardinals: 20/1 (40/1)
Cincinnati Bengals: 20/1 (20/1)
New Orleans Saints: 20/1 (7/1)
Dallas Cowboys: 30/1 (75/1)
Detroit Lions: 30/1 (40/1)
San Diego Chargers: 30/1 (30/1)
San Francisco 49ers: 30/1 (10/1)
Baltimore Ravens: 40/1 (25/1)
Miami Dolphins: 40/1 (50/1)
Kansas City Chiefs: 50/1 (50/1)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 80/1 (20/1)
Atlanta Falcons: 100/1 (60/1)
Cleveland Browns: 100/1 (100/1)
Buffalo Bills: 200/1 (60/1)
Houston Texans: 300/1 (25/1)
Carolina Panthers: 1000/1 (60/1)
Chicago Bears: 2000/1 (20/1)
Minnesota Vikings: 2000/1 (100/1)
St. Louis Rams: 2000/1 (75/1)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9999/1 (100/1)

OFF THE BOARD

New York Giants (40/1)
Washington Redskins (50/1)
Tennessee Titans (100/1)
New York Jets (60/1)
Jacksonville Jaguars (200/1)
Oakland Raiders (100/1)

Hit me up on Twitter: @JoeFortenbaugh