Tua Tagovailoa’s odds decreased, but he’s still the heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. Kyler Murray closes the gap.
Note: The change column indicates the percentage change in the odds of each player. Positive change labeled in green means the player is getting bet and his odds are lower, while the negative change in red means the player’s odds have regressed.
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The total for Monday night’s highly-touted matchup between the 9-1 Kansas City Chiefs and the 9-1 Los Angeles Rams is making history as a result of its astronomically high total.Â
?Rams vs Chiefs over/under point total of 63.5 is the highest in recorded NFL history
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) November 12, 2018
The over/under has even moved to 64 in some spots, and it’s entirely possible it’ll move higher as hype builds and folks continue to take the over regardless of where sportsbooks set it.Â
For what it’s worth, it’s hard to imagine this game won’t contain at least 30 points per side. After all, the Chiefs and Rams are averaging a combined 68.8 points per game this season. Eight of Kansas City’s 10 games have contained at least 50 points, while four of L.A.’s 10 outings have contained at least 64.Â
Also for what it’s worth, Pro Football Reference’s super-awesome database indicates that all five games this century with totals north of 58 have gone over.Â
My primary note on this one? The Rams defense has been particularly vulnerable against strong NFC foes this season. In five matchups with the Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers, they’ve surrendered an average of 33.0 points per game. Considering that this game is now back in Los Angeles and the Rams have scored at least 29 points in every home game they’ve played this year, it’s easy to wonder if a 63.5-point total is actually a little low for this one.
Sports Handle is pleased to present Cover City: A Pro Football Betting Podcast, hosted by Eric Rosenthal (@ericcports). Rosenthal is a professional sports bettor who focuses on NFL and college football. He’s wagered more than $25 million in the last nine years, getting banned from many sportsbooks along the way.
There’s six teams on a bye and it’s not an easy card this week. Sometimes, less is more. The defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles are 9-point underdogs on the road at New Orleans and the line may grow. Eric makes the case for Tennessee Titans against the Indianapolis Colts, while Christian calls out all the fraudulent teams. And of course, the guys spend some time on the Chiefs-Rams Monday Night Football tilt which is expected to be a fireworks show with an NFL record 63-point total.
Listen and subscribe on Spotify here. Download the PropSwap app for iOS systems here and Android here. Time codes for the episode follow below.
1:45 — Carolina Panthers -4 at Detroit Lions
4:18 — Dallas Cowboys +3 at Atlanta Falcons
8:40 — Minnesota Vikings +2.5 at Chicago Bears
12:42 — Philadelphia Eagles +9 at New Orleans Saints
18:00 — Tennessee Titans +1 at Indianapolis Colts
26:55 — Houston Texans -3 at Washington Redskins
29:30 — PropSwap.com Futures Focus. More than just a futures marketplace, check out PropSwap for favorable real-time betting opportunities and get 10% off your first purchase by visiting PropSwap.com/Handle.
35:15 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 at New York Giants
38:35 — Denver Broncos +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
40:00 — Oakland Raiders +5.5 at Arizona Cardinals
42:00 — Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars
43:40 — Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 at Los Angeles Rams
52:15 — Final thoughts: Less is more this week! And Eric’s SuperContest picks.
The post ‘Cover City’: NFL Week 11 Picks, Preview, Prop Bets With Christian Pina appeared first on SportsHandle.
Seattle’s season has been pretty straightforward: against good teams, they lose, and against bad teams (at or below 50% wins) the win. They’ve put together some impressive games against the Rams, losing by only one score and putting up 31 points in each contest. Each of their losses have been by 1 score, so they’ve never really been out of the games they play. Their 4 wins have come against the Cowboys, Cardinals, Raiders and Lions- all with losing records. They are 3-3 on the road, and 1-2 at home.
The Packers sit in a similar position. 3 of their 4 losses have come agains the Patriots, Redskins and Rams- all teams that lead their divisions. What separates them from Seattle, is the fact that they are 0-4 on the road, and 4-0-1 at home. Tonight’s matchup in Seattle doesn’t bode well for Green Bay if this season’s trend is any sort of indicator.
Another interesting thing to note is that since 2012 (the Fail Mary game), every matchup between Seattle and Green Bay has resulted in the home team winning (playoffs included).
Alternate lines are available at Sugar House Sportsbook if you live in the state of New Jersey.
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We finished the weekend 9-5-1 this past week. We’re also on a 24-11 CFB run the last 5 weeks and we’re 40-21-1 with our last 62 NFL plays overall. We have a 7-Unit CFB Main Event Game of the Month on Saturday and 6- and 5-unit NFL plays going on Sunday! We enter on a 12-1-1 CFB/NFL top plays run. Be sure to grab it all this week!
You can get a free $60 account and get Scott’s top College and NFL picks this week at docsports.com
NFL WEEK 10 RECAP:
JAGUARS 26-29 COLTS: Bortles 26-38-320-2. Fournette 53 yards 24 carries…56 rec yards, TD. Bortles still throwing too many passes for my blood. Indy 29 first half points…held scoreless in the 2nd half. Luck 21-29-285-3-1. Jags turnover inside the Colts 25 in the final minutes. Lost 5 straight games…trail Texans by 3 games in the division. Colts 36 ppg during 3 game winning streak. Luck 3 or more TD passes in 6 straight games.
BILLS 41-10 JETS: Bills 4 starting QBs last 5 games. Jets 4 straight losses. 4th losing streak of 4 or more games in 4 seasons under Todd Bowles. Barkley 15-25-232-2. L.McCoy 113 yards 26 carries 2 TD. Foster & Jones 11 combined rec 198 yards, 1 TD. Bills had 1 TD and 11 turnovers previous 3 games…5 TDs and 0 turnovers against the Jets. McCown 17-34-135-0-2.
FALCONS 16-28 BROWNS: ATL had 73 plays to Cleveland’s 50…but Browns averaged 8.5 yards per play…thanks in part to the 90+ yard run by Nick Chubb 20-176-TD. Mayfield’s best game as a pro 17-20-216-3-0. 9 different players with a catch – and the most by any player was 4. Jones, Hooper, Sanu 23 rec between the 3 of them…another big statistical day for Matt Ryan 38-52-330-2-0.
LIONS 22-34 BEARS: Bears snapped 10-game divisional losing streak. Trubisky 23-30-355-3-0…and 1 rushing TD (17 TD, 4 INT last 6 games). Big time miscommunication in the Lions’ secondary. Allen Robinson 6 rec 133 yards 2 TD. Miller 5 rec 122 yards, 1 TD. Stafford 25-42-274-2-2. Kerryon Johnson held in-check again 14 carries 51 yards, TD. Stafford sacked 6 times…(16 sacks in 2 games without Golden Tate to open up the field). Bears 6-3…11 points from a 9-0 record. 33 ppg during 3 game win streak. Bears 6 games with 3 or more takeaways — best in the NFL.
CARDINALS 14-26 CHIEFS: Mahomes 21-28-249-2. Kareem Hunt 16 carries 71 yards. Tyreek Hill 7 rec 117 yards 2 TDs. Kelce 6 rec 46 yards.
Rosen 22-39-208-1-2. David Johnson 21 carries 98 yards RD…85 rec yards, TD. AGAIN – YOU CAN RUN on the Chiefs. AZ is the only team without 100 yards rushing on the season…but if Johnson gets 1 more carry. AZ has failed to top 18 points in 8 of 9 games.
PATRIOTS 10-34 TITANS: Tennessee sacked Brady 3 times and put constant pressure on him. Brady 21-41-254 (Brady with just 1 TD pass last 3 games). Edelman 9 rec 104 yards. Gordon 4 rec 81 yards. Mariota 16-24-228-2-0 (3rd game with 2 or more TD passes…team is 3-0). Henry & Lewis 31 combined carries 115 yards 2 TDs. Davis 7 rec 125 yards TD. Pats failed to reach the red-zone in the 2nd half…0 points final 9 possessions. Worst loss since a 41-14 loss to KC in Sept 2014. The next week NE was +1 vs. Cincy and won 43-17…the 1st of a 7 game win streak…and won the SBOWL that season. 7-3 worst NE start in 5 years…lost in the conf championship to Denver that season. Tenn 13-3 last 16 home games. Out-rushed NE 150-40. Mike Vrabel knew to rush Brady up the middle and take away the middle. Tenny put a ton into this one win…@ Colts next week.
CHARGERS 20-6 RAIDERS: Big LAC TD pass with :20 left in the half to go up 10-3. Early 3rd…Melvin Gordon 66 yard TD pass and catch…screen…Raiders missed tackled inside the first 10 yards (Gordon 5 straight games with 120 or more scrimmage yards…first Charger since LT). Derek Carr 4th & 5 inside Charger 20 with 4 min to go…throws a pass in the turf to avoid a sack…4th down…Carr is all messed up between the ears at this point…making mental mistakes galore. Rivers only QB with 2 or more TD passes in every game this season. LAC 6 game winning streak. Held 5 straight opp’s to fewer than 20 points. Raiders 10 ppg during 5 game skid.
DOLPHINS 12-31 GREEN BAY: Packers got the ground game going early. Aaron Jones 145 yards 15 carries 2 TDs. Rodgers 19-28-199-2-0 (17 TDs 1 INT this season). Osweiler 23-37-213-0-1. Gore 13 carries 90 yards. 9 quarters without an offensive TD for Miami. Fins 5th double digit loss this season. Allowing 34 ppg during 4 game skid. Allowed 150 or more rush yards 5 times this season…worst in the NFL. GBAY 4-0-1 home…0-4 road. Packers @ Seattle on Thursday.
SKINS 16-3 BUCCS: Story of the game: Buccs 501 yards on 7.5 yards per play, but scored just 3 points (1st team in NFL history to score 3 points or fewer with 500 yards of offense). Held Skins to 286 yards. Alex Smith 19-27-178-1. A. Peterson 19 carries 68 yards. Ryan Fitzpatrick 29-41-406-0-2. Godwin & Rodgers 15 combined rec 205 yards. Buccs were 0-5 in the red zone. Skins 6-0 when rush for 100 or more yards. Held 6 opp’s to fewer than 18 points. Buccs -19 turnover margin this season…worst in the NFL. Buccs 7 straight games with -2 or more turnover margin…2nd longest in NFL history.
SAINTS 51-14 BENGALS: Brees 22-25-265-3-0…1 rush TD (Brees 21 TDs only 1 INT season). Ingram 13 carries 104 yards 58 rec yards 1 TD. Kamara 12 carries 56 yards 2 TD. Michael Thomas 8 rec 70 yards 2 TDs. Dalton 12-20-153-1-2. Saints 6 TDs 3 FGs first 9 possessions. 5-0 on the road this season. 5 games with 40 or more points. Cincy has allowed at least 30 points 5 games this season…allowing nearly 40 ppg last 4 games.
SEAHAWKS 31-36 RAMS: C.Kupp out for season. R. Wilson 17-26-176-3-0. 92 yards rushing. Wilson 6 TDs 0 INTs vs. Rams…62 points scored…0-2. Penny 12 carries 108 yards (you CAN RUN on the Rams). Seattle 273 rushing yards on 8 yards per carry (6 straight games with at least 150 yards rushing). Goff 28-39-318-2-0. Gurley 16 carries 120 yards TD. Cooks 10 rec 100 yards 1 rush TD. SEA 4-5…5 losses by 25 points. Rams can clinch NFC West next week with a win over KC and a Sea loss to GB. Aaron Donald 8.5 sacks last 4 games. (When Aqib Talib returns).
COWBOYS 27-20 EAGLES: Too many secondary injuries for the Eagles and the offensive line wasn’t healthy. Philly 421 yards and 6.8 yards per play. Dallas 171 yards on 6.1 yards per carry. Elliott 151 yards rushing on 8 yards per carry. Dak 26-36-270-1-0. Amari Cooper targeted 10 times…6 grabs…opens up the field. Wentz & Ertz had big numbers for Philly.
NY GIANTS 27-23 SAN FRANCISCO: Total combined yards played out like an Under…but the game went Over on the final TD. Eli 19-31-188-3-0. Nick Mullens 27-39-250-1-2 INTs. Giants had film on Mullens, which wasn’t the case the previous week. NYG offensive line finally protected Manning for the most part…and the team ran for 4 yards per carry.
Scott Spreitzer has spent 25+ years in the world of sports betting and he’s been one of the few bettors/handicappers to be accepted and sought after on several national radio shows as the key go-to analyst with a Vegas perspective. Scott dominates the ESPN national airwaves during football season. He’s the featured bettor/handicapper on the Dari and Mel show, appearing every football Saturday for the past four years with Dari Nowkhah and Mel Kiper, Jr., a show heard on over 300 ESPN affiliates. Scott doubles back every Sunday morning on ESPN National’s NFL Sunday Countdown with Kevin Winter (4 years running). And he kicked off this past football season each and every Friday as the regular betting expert on the Mike Golic, Jr., show. Scott’s even had his Vegas-centric information repeated on college football live game broadcasts by the likes of Kirk Herbstreit. If you tune into ESPN national on football weekends, you’re bound to hear Scott.
We take a break from football to bring you a golf engine which uses machine learning to evaluate 1,500 different statistics for every golfer on the PGA Tour over each tournament since 2004. The analysis of this massive dataset provides an opportunity to predict players that are due to go low.Â
The engine looks at how each statistical set contributes to what we can expect from players on this stage, at this tournament. It’s a complex web of information that can only be properly analyzed by a math engine, yet yields some objectively surprising results.
The United States carries a heavy advantage in the 2018 Ryder Cup as seen by the Las Vegas Odds. This is neither surprising nor out of the ordinary going into this event. The majority of the best players in the world, its professional tournaments and money in the sport come from the US.
The Europeans do however carry a lot of pride for inventing the game. And, tend to enjoy embarrassing the US on a semi-annual basis, regardless of how stacked the odds always seem against them.
We suspect this year will be no different, and in the end, it will be a very close and exciting tournament even though the US should walk-away cleanly with the Cup (spoiler alert – they won’t, drama inevitably to ensue).
Should make for a fun weekend regardless as this is so-much-more than a golf tournament and there a nearly unlimited possibilities for prop-bets out there.
Use the drop-down menu to select the individual US and European player and see the projected head to head match-up winner.
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How the Golf Engine makes its picks
We use machine learning to evaluate 1,500 different statistics for every golfer on the PGA Tour over each tournament since 2004. The analysis of this massive dataset allows gives us an opportunity to predict players that are due to go low.
The machine learns how these statistics can become a unique strength or glaring weakness for each golfer by comparing tens of thousands of different combinations and separating the patterns from the noise.
The resulting ‘model’ is able to ‘deep dive’ and determine when to expect low rounds from a pro, given their unique style of play. These calculations are next to impossible to do quickly and certainly without personal and subjective biases, until now.
Historical Results
View the golf engine’s picks and results for the British Open and PGA Championship or get the 2018 Ryder Cup Odds here.
At the beginning of the season, there were many who firmly believed that tonight’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Los Angeles Rams would be a preview of the NFC championship game.
The Rams are currently tied for third in total points scored (102) and first in points allowed (36), giving them the best point differential(+66)  in the NFL by a long shot – the next closest are the Ravens at +46.
Todd Gurley has recorded 4 touchdowns and 255 yards through three weeks, while Brandin Cooks has caught for 336 yards, but is yet to find the end zone.
If you live in New Jersey and want to open a legal sports betting account, click here.
The Vikings are one of four teams to start the season 1-1-1, an anomaly unto itself. While week one featured a strong performance against the 49ers as their defense recorded three interceptions and a fumble recovery.
Week 2 versus the Packers ended in a tie, but could have gone either way with Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson missing 3 field goals and Clay Matthews getting called for roughing the passer on a play that would have sealed if for the Packers.
And then there’s week 3. Anyone who follows the NFL was rightfully shocked by the Buffalo Bills 27-6 win in Minnesota, as the Vikings were a 16.5 point favorite.
Keep in mind, it’s still early in the season, and a win on Thursday would discard any fears had by the Vikings faithful.
The props below are available to BET NOW if you live in the state of New Jersey.
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Week 3 features the first of two meetings between NFC South foes, the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. Both teams present strong quarterbacks and top wide receivers.
Over the first two weeks, the Saints have been outscored by their opponents 66-61 (Buccaneers 2-0, Browns 0-1-1), while the Falcons have outscored their opponents 43-42 (Eagles 1-1, Panthers 1-1).
The Saints and Falcons both present strong passing games and a more than sufficient, run game.Â
Freeman and Kamara have changed the way these two offenses have performed, considering their pass-catching ability.
Falcons’ Coach Dan Quinn says Freeman is day-to-day, so his status should be monitored, regardless of whether or not he gets the okay to play. Kamara, on the other hand, will look to continue his explosive play.
In week 4, the Saints travel New York to take on a struggling Giants team, and the Falcons host the Bengals who currently sit atop the AFC North at 2-0.
Here are a handful of player, game and team props for the New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons game.
These props are available to BET NOW if you live in the State of Jersey.
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Last week, Ryan Fitzpatrick and ex-Eagle DeSean Jackson connected for a 75-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage. After being down 20 points late in the 3rd quarter, Philly almost managed a comeback but fell short. This week, Carson Wentz returns as the starting quarterback to take on the Indianapolis Colts- and you can bet the Eagles are hungry. Last Time Wentz was on the field, he tossed for 291 yards and 4 touchdowns en route to a 43-35 win over the Rams.
Ryan Fitzpatrick on the other hand, has started this season with with 8 touchdowns, 819 yards, only 1 interception and a QBR of 151.5. He will look to continue his success this Monday night when the winless Steelers roll into Tampa Bay.
Patrick Mahomes is the only player with more (10) touchdowns than Fitzpatrick through week 2. The red-hot Chiefs will host the 49ers, who just bounced back with a win over Detroit.
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Data provided by Bovada.