South Florida Bulls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-25.5/49)
The Fighting Irish began the season last week with a 27-13 win over Duke in which they failed to cover as 21.5-point favorites. The Bulls paid bettors in their opener with a 27-6 win over the Citadel as a 17-point favorite.
Notre Dame has been unbeatable at home lately with 19 straight wins and a 12-7 ATS record. When favored by 25-26 points the Fighting Irish are 0-3 ATS and they’re a lackluster 6-13 ATS in their last 19 when favored by 25.5-point or more.
Interestingly, the last time the Bulls traveled to Notre Dame in 2011 they upset the Irish 23-20 as a 10-point underdog. We don’t see another straight up win in the cards for the Bulls, but we think they’ll keep it close enough to be worth a bet at +25.5.
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Miami Hurricanes at Louisville Cardinals (-2.5/64.5)
Miami snapped a three-game losing streak in their opener last week by getting past UAB 31-14 as a 15.5-point favorite. Transfer quarterback D’Eriq King (see the latest Heisman Trophy Odds) breathed new life into the Hurricanes offense, which moved the ball with ease against UAB.
Even with this improved offensive attack Miami still fell Under the total last week and they’re 12-2-1 Under in their last 15 road games. Louisville failed to cover in a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky last week as a 13-point favorite. The Cardinals went Over the total for the sixth straight game.
Last season Miami crushed Louisville 52-27 as a 6.5-point favorite. The Cardinals will be a tougher test than UAB, but with King at the helm the Hurricanes looked poised for an upset at +2.5.