Take 5: Week 4 CFB Odds, Trends & Predictions
All but one of the top 25 teams are in action in Week 4 of the college football season, and we’re seeing a gradual uptick in marquee matchups as conference season begins in earnest.
That includes three conference games pitting ranked teams against each other on Saturday.
Five interesting trends sportsbooks are reporting:
5. The Eyes of Texas
No. 22 Texas facing an unranked in-state rival might not have much impact on the national landscape, but the Longhorns’ trip to Texas Tech is gaining the eye of the public. Texas covering its 7.0-point spread has drawn nearly twice the handle as the second-most wagered-on play at BetRivers.
It has been the heaviest-bet college game overall with 7.8 percent of the action. The Over has also been a one-sided play, drawing 89 percent of the tickets and 84 percent of the money on the 61.0-point line.
4. Wolverine Wrecking Crew
No. 4 Michigan has opened its season with three blowouts and the public is expecting Jim Harbaugh’s crew to make it a quartet when the Wolverines play host to unranked Maryland. It has been the most popular game of the week at BetMGM, where Michigan is a 17.0-point favorite after the line opened at 17.5.
Michigan has been backed by 91 percent of the spread bets and 92 percent of the money, both leading the way at BetMGM. The percent of the action has been identical at PointsBet, while DraftKings reported 92 percent of the spread bets and 93 percent of the handle backing the Wolverines.
3. Razors’ Edge?
Texas A&M kept its faint College Football Playoff hopes alive with a win over Miami last week and now plays host to 10th-ranked Arkansas. The Razorbacks come to College Station with a 3-0 record and respect from the public.
The Aggies are 2.0-point consensus favorites, with the line moving from 2.5 at BetMGM with the Razorbacks drawing 74 percent of the spread bets and 78 percent of the money. Arkansas has been equally as popular at BetRivers, where it has been backed by 78 and 82 percent of the action, respectively.
PointsBet reported Texas A&M holding an edge with 53 percent of the bets and 61 percent of the money, while the action has been split at DraftKings, with the Razorbacks supported by 51 percent of the bets while the Aggies have drawn 54 percent of the handle.
2. ACC Battle of Unbeatens
Of course, there are countless markets beyond game spreads, and the most lopsided prop at PointsBet involves No. 5 Clemson making an important road trip to No. 21 Wake Forest.
The Over/Under market opened at 57 points at the sportsbook but moved to 55.5 and has seen the Over draw a whopping 93 percent of the total money wagered. That includes some large bets with 81 percent of the total tickets placed on the Over.
The line has also moved to 55.5 at BetMGM, where the Over has drawn 83 percent of both the total bets and money.
1. Gators Swamped at Neyland?
Florida is one of the few teams to face multiple ranked teams within its first four games. After losing at home to Kentucky two weeks ago, the 20th-ranked Gators now travel to No. 11 Tennessee.
The Volunteers enter the game 3-0 but with a lone win over a Power 5 team — an overtime victory at Pittsburgh. This is an important litmus test for Tennessee with at trip to LSU next week ahead of hosting Alabama.
The Vols are double-digit favorites, which has spurred split action at many books. Florida has been backed by 58 percent of the bets at +10.5 at DraftKings while Tennessee has drawn 51 percent of the spread money. The same spread has similar action at BetMGM — 57 percent of the bets on the Gators and 51 percent of the money on the Vols.
–Field Level Media
