Ballin' on a Budget Week 12 Picks
Our picks continue to hit week after week and we'll try to avoid a slump in Week 12. Thanksgiving unders are always a solid bet, but oddsmakers have been catching up to that in recent years, so we will stay away. As we have in past weeks, we will split our money between point spreads and over/unders. For five weeks in a row, we've gone at least 3-2, let's make it six in a row, what do you say?
Redskins +7.5 at Cowboys (-110)
This is the only pick we will have from Thanksgiving and I think it's a good one. QB Alex Smith being out for the year is a big loss for Washington and it will likely end their playoff hopes (although they do play in the NFC East after all). However, backup Colt McCoy has the confidence of the coaching staff, because he knows this offense as well as anybody. He doesn't have the same capability that Smith does, the Washington's strength is its defense anyway.
In a rivalry game, even with the Redskins starting a backup quarterback, getting more than a touchdown spread is too good to pass up. We've had good luck betting both against and on the Redskins, so let's keep the good times rolling. The bet: $4 for total payout of $7.60.
Jaguars -3 at Bills (-120)
Have the Jaguars majorly disappointed this season? Of course they have. Are they on the same level as the Bills? No, they are not. Jacksonville's defense reminded us how good they can be after shutting down the Steelers for most of last week. If they have a similar performance Sunday, Buffalo isn't going to score more than 10 points.
The Jaguars are in the middle of an identity crisis right now and their offense is completely out of sorts, but they should be able to score enough to cover a three-point spread. This might not be the most fun game to watch, but it'll be a lot more fun if it wins you this bet. The bet: $5 for total payout of $9.17.
Steelers -3 at Broncos (-115)
We bet on the Broncos to cover +7.5 against the Chargers last week and they won straight up. Against a Steelers team that just got a scare from the Jaguars, they're primed for a letdown game. Pittsburgh is pushing for a first-round bye in the playoffs and is the much more talented team. The Le'Veon Bell saga behind them, now the Steelers can focus on this year's playoff push.
Big Ben and the offense finally got going at the end of their game last week and should be able to pick back up where they left off. If past Broncos games are any indication, this should be a close game, but it's one Pittsburgh should be able to take care of business in. The bet: $5 for total payout of $9.35.
Patriots-Jets OVER 46 (-110)
While the Patriots might blow New York out, the New England defense isn't very good either. Something like a 30-17 game would push this game over. Tom Brady and Co. haven't been as prolific as of late, so this looks like a potential bounce-back game for them. Let's say it ends up 37-20, or something along those lines; we'd be completely fine as far as the over goes.
This bet definitely only works if the Patriots contribute to most of the point total. If they stall out in the 20's, we're in trouble. However, if they go up over the 30-point mark as a team, this over is almost a sure thing. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.
49ers-Buccaneers UNDER 55 (-110)
Yes, both these teams have put up pretty good offensive numbers lately, but neither is very good overall and I just can't believe they're going to combine for 56 points or more. I mean, c'mon, Jameis Winston is starting at quarterback for Tampa Bay. He's going to turn it over in a few key spots. Nick Mullens has been really solid in the first two starts of his career, but will that continue?
We'll see if he can impress us again, but I'm not buying it. This over would require both teams outplaying projections of where I see them finishing. It should be a competitive game, but it will be in the 20's, not the 30's. After going 2-for-2 in over/unders last week, let's try to duplicate the feat in Week 12. The bet: $3 for total payout of $5.70.
Our dream of a 5-for-5 parlay hit would make us a lot of money on a $20 bet. In fact, it would make us a cool $476.93. Keep daring to dream. We'll check in on these picks early next week.