Ballin' on a Budget Week 3 Results
I’ll have whatever the NFL was having this weekend. We mostly survived the weirdness of the Packers and Vikings both being dominated by seemingly inferior teams as well as the Saints and Falcons playing first to 100. As a whole, we went 3 for 5 this week. If you put equal money on all our picks, you’d have made a little bit of dough. We did put a little more stock in the Chiefs-49ers under, which went over, making us only slight winners on the weekend. But hey, after last week’s brutality, we’ll take it.
Ballin' on a Budget Week 3 Results
I think it’s pretty clear for us to see that Aaron Rodgers, is in fact, significantly injured. The Redskins defense, which had already been pretty solid this season, gave Rodgers and Green Bay fits all day. We also didn’t anticipate Adrian Peterson having a throwback game, where he carries the workload and finds the end zone twice.
Until Aaron Rodgers is fully healthy or they sit him down for a few weeks, I would stay away from betting on any games involving the Packers. The extent of Rodgers’ injury and in what ways it is limiting him is just too uncertain. Total win: $0.
Now, if only we had bet the Bills money line in this game. This was the biggest upset in the NFL in the last 23 years based on point spread. I won’t pretend for a minute that I thought Buffalo would win this game, especially without LeSean McCoy, but I will take credit for telling you to bet on any NFL team that is a three-score underdog. Points are at such a premium in the NFL compared to college football, that asking a team to cover three scores should be relatively easy.
This bet was over before halftime as the Bills randomly jumped out to a 24-0 lead and it was clear we were making money. I don’t know if you want to call this an aberration or what, but let it be a reminder to you that double-digit underdogs are usually a good bet with the spread when it comes to the NFL. Total win: $5.61.
We hypothesized that San Francisco might be able to have more success stopping Patrick Mahomes since they had more film on him. That was not the case. Mahomes continued his electric start to his career by throwing for 314 yards and three touchdowns. At least for now, this kid seems like the real deal and we didn’t give him enough credit. Total win: $0.
The flow of the game played a big factor in this game being a fairly easy over hit. Kansas City went up big, putting them into bend-don’t-break defense, which allowed San Francisco to put more points on the board. It was the perfect storm adding up to us losing on this under.
With Carolina being at home and the Bengals having not won three straight games in three seasons, we felt pretty good about this one going in. While it did get a little close for comfort at points in the second half, Cam Newton and Co. were in control for most of the game. Playing at home, they were able to nab the 10-point win and easily cover the three-point spread.
The really great thing about this game is that it pays out even money, something relatively rare for a point spread, meaning oddsmakers were leaning slightly toward the Bengals to cover three points. It was good we trusted our instincts on this one with a team coming off a tough loss, returning home to play a team that has traditionally been very inconsistent. It ended up paying off in a big way. Total win: $10.
This was another case of us trusting our gut and the eye test and like the Panthers-Bengals game, it paid off. Seattle needed a win to keep hope alive on the playoff hunt. The Rams are going to run away with this division, which leaves Seattle to compete with teams outside the division, especially now that the 49ers are without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, for one of the NFC’s two wild card spots.
Playing in Seattle, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks just seem to be a different team. Even coming off a relatively unimpressive win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football, there was no reason to believe Dallas would march into Seattle and take care of business in a tough road environment. The Seahawks dominated from start to finish and we got our check. Total win: $5.73.
BONUS PICKS: Our bonus picks went 1 for 2 this week with us taking the over 39.5 in the Browns-Jets game that ended at 38 and us taking the Colts +6 against the Eagles in a game they lost by just four.
PIGGY BANK: $56.71 (-5.5% return on investment)
PICK PERCENTAGE: 53.3%
Week 3 helped us inch closer to the green after Week 2 decimated us and just about every other NFL bettor. We will look for more “gut feeling” picks like we did with the Panthers and Seahawks in the week ahead and see if it pays off. Look for Week 4 picks coming in a column later this week.