Ballin' on a Budget Wild Card Weekend Results, Super Bowl Value Picks

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Ballin' on a Budget Week 4 Results

It was another week of treading water here on this column. If it weren’t for an Eagles full-out meltdown, we’d be up on the day and the season. However, they collapsed down the stretch and as a result, we pretty much find ourselves where we were at this time last week: just about where we started. Overall, we went 2-2-1 on the week, but our biggest problem this year has been putting the majority of our money in the wrong places.

For example, we spent $3 of our $20 on the Bears -2.5 against the Buccaneers. They won 48-10. We spent $8 on the Eagles -3 against the Titans and they lost. If we flip those amounts, we’re well into the green on the day. So, going forward, the management of how much we spend on each game will be just as important as the game picks themselves. Let’s take a look at how this week shook out.

WIN: Bears -2.5 vs. Buccaneers (-110): Bears 48, Buccaneers 10.

Mitch Trubisky played like the best quarterback on planet earth in the first half of this blowout as Chicago’s receivers were wide open all day long. Trubisky struck for six touchdowns, five of them coming in the first half and this one was never really close. We knew that being at home would help the Bears and that FitzMagic was bound to come to an end at some point, but we didn’t expect it to be so dramatic.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was so affected by the Bears’ fearsome pass rush that Jameis Winston played in the second half, potentially earning his starting job back. Whatever way you slice it, this Bears defense is scary and if the offense is 70 percent as good as it was today for the rest of the season, other teams are in trouble. Total win: $5.70.

LOSS: Eagles -3 at Titans (-110): Titans 26, Eagles 23 (F/OT).

Our week hinged on this game and the Eagles really screwed us. At one point, Tennessee scored 17 unanswered points to help them force a 20-20 tie going into overtime. They actually held a 20-17 lead before the Eagles tied it with a field goal as time expired. Then, in overtime, the Eagles marched down the field and all seemed right with the world. Carson Wentz orchestrated the drive with ease and it looked like we might escape with our money. Not the case.

Instead, the Eagles drive stalled and they settled for a field goal. That meant the defense just had to get a stop to win the game. Marcus Mariota and Co. promptly converted three fourth downs on the drive, including one that came from a pass interference call and on third and goal with time winding down, Mariota found receiver Corey Davis in the end zone for the game winning touchdown. It was a crushing betting loss and you can blame the Eagles for why our week was average instead of good. Total win: $0.

PUSH: Seahawks -3 at Cardinals (-110): Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17.

This was a sloppy game and it reminds us why the Seahawks are a risky bet on the road. There’s just something about being away from Seattle that turns them into a different team. When they went up 17-10, it seemed like they would be a good bet to cover, but Arizona tied things up. We did get lucky when the Cardinals missed a go-ahead field goal near the two-minute warning.

Russell Wilson took the team down the field and it led to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer from Sebastian Janikowski. It stinks to not get the betting win here, but with the Cardinals poised to win with that late field goal, we will gladly take our money back on this push. Total win: $4.

WIN: Saints -3 at Giants (-110): Saints 33, Giants 18.

New Orleans started out slow, which was worrisome given the spread, but Drew Brees and the offense finally figured it out. They appeared ready to run away with it, only to let the Giants cut it back to an eight-point deficit at one point in the fourth quarter. However, the offense got humming and was able to score a dagger touchdown to extend the lead and lock up the betting win.

If you took the under in this game, you were really sweating it out. It was 51.5 and it ended at 51. It’s almost as if oddsmakers know what they’re doing or something. Total win: $5.70.

LOSS: Packers-Bills over 44.5 points: Packers 22, Bills 0.

Well, it sure is hard to hit the over when one team gets shut out. One might even say it’s impossible. The crappy Bills we all know and love came back today just in time to make our chances of the over lower than zero. Josh Allen looked horrendous and even while looking pretty average, Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense did plenty to win.

It’s time to admit now that we may have overreacted to Buffalo’s random outburst against the Vikings, but we even acknowledged that before making this bet. Green Bay’s defense isn’t that good, so it was reasonable to think Buffalo might be able to get something going, but they never did. This is now the second week in a row a game involving the Packers was one of our misses. We might have to avoid them to set our minds at ease in the coming week. Total win: $0.

PIGGY BANK: $72.11 (-9.8% return on investment)

PICK PERCENTAGE: 55%

As you can see, we’re picking at a 55 percent clip this season, but have still lost a few dollars. This just goes to show you how the decision on how much money to spend on each game matters as much as the games you pick. Let’s get it in Week 5 and stop treading water like we have over the last couple weeks.

Jacob Kornhauser
Jacob Kornhauser is a sports reporter in Southern Oregon covering all sports, including Oregon and Oregon State athletics. He has been a national baseball writer for Bleacher Report and Rant Sports and has written two baseball books. He also specializes in sports betting analysis. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri Journalism School.

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